Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[summer blizzard]

Models don't produce more than brief windows for wintry showers for the UK however hemispherical there are some developments.

Firstly it looks like the GFS has capitulated to the Euro over the Arctic in maintaining a dipole and pushing the vortex into our quadrant until well into FI..

Euro consistently maintains strong heights over the Arctic and Siberia with obvious potential down the line.

[knocker]

It's no surprise the METO have a rain warning in operation for western Scotland

Edited December 22, 2017 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

It's no surprise the METO have a rain warning in operation for western Scotland

That looks bad!

All that rain will turn to ice not long after tho as the colder air pushes south after christmas day ..

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That looks bad!

All that rain will turn to ice not long after tho as the colder air pushes south after christmas day ..

Ah It's gratifying to know that one person read my early morning post but ........

Edited December 22, 2017 by knocker

[Methuselah]

There must be some chance, however slim, of something wintry coming from this wee window (or more accurately cat-flap) of opportunity:

[cheshire snow]

Wednesday Looks a cold day with snow showers pushing into the Southern half of the Country on this particular run

C.S 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Wednesday Looks a cold day with snow showers pushing into the Southern half of the Country on this particular run

C.S 

Boxing day looks really snowy in our neck of the woods CS!

Hopefully GFS is on the mark here

[Methuselah]

Agreed CS...though it'll be very marginal IMO:

Edited December 22, 2017 by Ed Stone

[Tim Bland]

Almost all the Uk under a blanket of snow this time next week according to GFS 12z. Cold air floods down and multiple fronts bump into the cold air. 

 

[Frosty.]

Yes please Gfs 12z..it would be nice to think we could see more charts like this in january too!

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Agreed CS...though it'll very very marginal IMO:

when isn't it Marginal in this Country.

C.S

[comet]

Well my persistent harping on about the Alaskan ridge and the down Welling from the strat is being realised on the 12z gfs run. Should add some interest next week. Hate to say told you so, (it's so childish and willy waveish) but........

Edited December 22, 2017 by comet

[That ECM]

Ukmo not as keen but at least there's some interest.

[bluearmy]

26 minutes ago, comet said:

Well my persistent harping on about the Alaskan ridge and the down Welling from the strat is being realised on the 12z gfs run. Should add some interest next week. Hate to say told you so, (it's so childish and willy waveish) but........

Can you  be a bit clearer ? what is it that is being realised on this run which hasn't been obvious on other model output and some previous gfs op runs ??  it looks pretty straightforward continuity with cool zonality

[knocker]

30 minutes ago, comet said:

Well my persistent harping on about the Alaskan ridge and the down Welling from the strat is being realised on the 12z gfs run. Should add some interest next week. Hate to say told you so, (it's so childish and willy waveish) but........

What you mean it has disappeared 

[tight isobar]

Another olive branch 12z gfs..

And that being after 26/30dec ramifications..

Even a small area of aligned warm anom' can/will have a big impact for our island...

1st jan.. and yet mlb..and/or pm/northerly incur!..

Its got mass impact for quick-cast wintery, accomplishment written all over it atm....

Given the otherwise knife edge exactions..

There is a wide range of offers coming into output for winter..not deep cold winter given..but watch the spaces be filled imo...

?

 

Edited December 22, 2017 by tight isobar

[blizzard81]

Well, what a thoroughly enjoyable gfs 12z - if you are partial to weather of a cold persuasion

[Methuselah]

Looks like a pretty 'normal' next 15 days to me: temps fluctuating  a couple of degrees either side of average for much of the time, and several wet and windy spells; no sign of any real cold? On the bright side - the Scottish ski resorts might get a bit of a pasting...

[Allseasons-Si]

I like the 12z gfs as it gives us quiet a few PM shots all the way through the suit,a lot better than the 06z,even the south could see some snow from boxing day night to the new year and maybe beyond with daughter lows bumping into the colder air south of the parent lows,so lots going on over the Christmas period

also i am keeping an eye on a poss slider from the 28th,the icon has been going for this on it's last few runs and to some exent the other models but still a way ahead for that.

Edited December 22, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks like a pretty 'normal' next 15 days to me: temps fluctuating  a couple of degrees either side of average for much of the time, and several wet and windy spells; no sign of any real cold? On the bright side - the Scottish ski resorts might get a bit of a pasting...

that's what I was thinking - old fashioned early jan weather where the rain is often wintry over hills and occasionally lower down oop norf and some lee northerlies keep the draft on the chilly side. If the prevailing jet axis could be more nw/se then might be a different story but alas it ebbs and flows in direction

[Daniel*]

There is definite wintry potential even to low levels. The 28th is one to watch I’ve seen GFS bring up a snow risk many times courtesy of an Atlantic front it does revert to rain but could give a few CM before that occurs. 

Boxing Day also needs to be watched interestingly some of the same areas which saw snow three years ago to the day. It ends up giving much of England/Wales at least some back edge snow.

[northwestsnow]

A thoroughly enjoyable 12z GFS with PM incursion a plenty.

Yet again tho UKMO not on the same page by 144 ...(much flatter).

wondering if the 96 to 120 is showing the low slide across southern UK giving some snowfall for elevated areas?

Edited December 22, 2017 by northwestsnow

[JBMWeatherForever]

Looking increasingly good for some cold weather after Christmas (especially the north), in fact any further southward progression of the jet and it will be very good indeed. Also the start of the New Year is now looking cold with a northerly and not mild as some have been touting !     

[nick sussex]

Differences between the GFS and UKMO emanate from their view of the Pacific ridge.

This continues to be a problem for the models. The GFS makes a huge change from its 06hrs run in that area so best to view the current outputs with that in mind.

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

Looking increasingly good for some cold weather after Christmas (especially the north), in fact any further southward progression of the jet and it will be very good indeed. Also the start of the New Year is now looking cold with a northerly and not mild as some have been touting !     

Whilst i would love that sentiment to hold true i think thats a very bold statement- UKMO would not go onto show anything like GFS imho.

I do agree that GFS12 z was a nice run for coldies-