Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[shotski]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Dont think Nick meant last chance saloon for winter mate.

I'm pretty sure he was referring to the medium term and the ops are very disappointing this morning- neither GFS/EC shows the trough/low diving far enough into Europe so we see by day 10 the problem - 

The ens look OK but we need to see an op from the colder cluster, sharpish.

The only problem I see at day 10 is the fact it is day 10 and almost certainly won’t verify. ECM and GFS both look decent this morning in the reliable IMHO. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, shotski said:

The only problem I see at day 10 is the fact it is day 10 and almost certainly won’t verify. ECM and GFS both look decent this morning in the reliable IMHO. 

Neither provide anything wintry for most of us out to day 10...not that i can see.

 

[chris55]

Yep GEM excellent this morning and slides the low, resulting in northern edge snow and a following cold easterly, out on its own mind but certainly a possibility  

 

 

 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Dont think Nick meant last chance saloon for winter mate.

 

I know that mate..I was just making the point, the obvious point that there is still 66 percent of winter left and some of us have already seen more snow than the last 3 or 4 winters put together and with plenty more power to add. Disappointing to me would be staring down the barrel at prolonged mild but I'm not seeing that at all, there does look like being some colder shots and still potential for more significant cold spells to develop.

[northwestsnow]

Yes GEM is best of the bunch this morning- lets hope its on the ball

GEM digs the jet further into Europe unlike EC and we can see the happier outcome.

Edited December 30, 2017 by northwestsnow

[nick sussex]

35 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Hardly the last chance saloon with 2 months of winter left!..anyway, I'm not seeing a prolonged mild mush fest from the latest models, there does at least look like there are some colder periods too..and always the chance of a more substantially wintry spell popping up.

Last chance saloon to salvage this cold chance not for winter . The low needs to go se more quickly and not hang around the UK slowly filling.

[Coopsy]

On 21/12/2017 at 16:29, Day 10 said:

Maybe there could be 1 or 2 surprise snowfalls from this setup in about a weeks time???

Good shout 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Last chance saloon to salvage this cold chance not for winter . The low needs to go se more quickly and not hang around the UK slowly filling.

mean looks better than the det at 144 Nick, but i agree with you, need to see a det run drop more energy SE into Europe, on the next run ideally!

[snowbunting]

Good morning. Model watching is fascinating. Just a few thoughts on the 0z run this morning. I have to admit I groaned very loudly when I saw the charts this morning with that atlantic low refusing to budge over the Uk and sending our chances of a cold spell from the NE down the pan with it. 

However, looking at the Sea level pressure chart, the synoptics dont look so bad with a strong atlantic ridge to our west, a green high and a tentative area of high pressure to the north. The other thing note worthy is no sign of a euro high. 

 

So why on earth would that area of low pressure infill over the Uk... look at the jetstream

 

 

expect a big change... 

[Dancerwithwings]

Just while we are waiting for the 06z to show, You don't see many members go this cold (2m temps) ....No 6 

Edited December 30, 2017 by Dancerwithwings

[TEITS]

Very surprised at some of the comments this morning because I think the output is great.

First of all the type of E,ly shown by the GEM has always been an outsider. Personally I haven't been expecting a convective E,ly but maybe an E,ly that brings in enough cold air that any sliders can then bring snowfall.

Lets move onto the positives. The ECM might not bring an E,ly but look upstream and beyond +240 a cold zonal spell would be expected. The GFS might not bring an E,ly but yet again F.I is showing blocking to our N & NE. My point is the outlook looks primed towards a cold outlook rather than mild.

Finally massive difference in the ensembles for Iceland beyond 7th Jan.

[Frosty.]

35 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The low needs to go se more quickly and not hang around the UK slowly filling.

Agreed Nick, yesterday's Gfs 00z op was much better in that respect but don't lose hope, the mid range is still up for grabs.

[bluearmy]

Dave is right .........

current diretion of travel is that next weekend will fail to deliver the potential that seemed possible past few runs - this could easily reverse next suite but note that the overall trend thereafter remains the same with the gefs slightly better for cold advection than the eps in the extended. The eps with a nw/n component whilst the gefs look to have more promise of ne with higher heights across our north.

infact the gefs around day 10 don't lose the se digging signal as much as the eps do. Given that yesterday the eps clusters swung in both directions with the 00z sending more ne and the 12z se, this still has some way to go. We could 'lose this battle' but still easily win the war !

[offerman]

And there is exactly why I kept saying ignore F1 or near it. Just plain simple too far out. 

The cold easterlies were too far out . Charts changed to show those gone. Yet again far reaches F1 shows on last couple of frames easterly large Scandinavia high BUT too far away. 

 

Just focus on charts 3-4 days away and even those can change. 

No one can predict the weather that far out , me or anyone else here at met office or anywhere . 

Patterns switch run to run , yes of course if cold devolps then those that GUESSED the casino correctly will be self proclaimed weather messiahs !! 

[carinthian]

Models offer a choice of GFS,ECM AND UKMO against the small guns of GEM AND NAVGEM.  The chart below from GEM as early as Friday develops the Atlantic Low into a true slider than would introduce a NEly. The big three push this low quickly on a more zonal flow further north but would introduce some cold Pm NWly flow for a while. Still a wide range of options on the table . This morning a good spread of runs show a Easterly of some sort to develop but the % still not high ,however, not to be disheartened, things are different this winter. Look at Moscow, highest temp for 42 years yesterday and no snow on the ground for much of December. Thinks parts of the UK have had more lying snow days than them. Certainly Helsinki and Stockholm have had remarkable warmth, so an immediate Easterly could well be tempered for a short time but at this stage of the winter would still be the best option for some prolonged cold spell that most on here would like to see. Great chart watching coming and really interesting weather this winter for you lot from what I can make out.

 C

Edited December 30, 2017 by carinthian

[That ECM]

Now that's interesting. More of a southerly track.

[Ice Day]

Morning all.  Looks like the 6z has a touch of the GEM about it at 174.

Could building to the north east

Definite improvement so far....lets see how it pans out.

[bluearmy]

20 minutes ago, offerman said:

And there is exactly why I kept saying ignore F1 or near it. Just plain simple too far out. 

The cold easterlies were too far out . Charts changed to show those gone. Yet again far reaches F1 shows on last couple of frames easterly large Scandinavia high BUT too far away. 

 

Just focus on charts 3-4 days away and even those can change. 

No one can predict the weather that far out , me or anyone else here at met office or anywhere . 

Patterns switch run to run , yes of course if cold devolps then those that GUESSED the casino correctly will be self proclaimed weather messiahs !! 

Do you mind if we don't ..... will be extremely boring in here 90% of the time if we do.  Accept that op charts beyond day 6/7 shouldn't be dissected and over analysed. Rarely happens anyway. Most people on here know that an operational past day 7 is not going to verify. But it should still be discussed as there is merit in working out what parts of the output are more probable than others etc etc.  I think this place does a pretty good job in expectation management. 

the mood changes - sure, but that's just the little kid in all of us desperate to see snow covered vistas from our front door.......apart from knocker and secretly he does really ..........

[northwestsnow]

Better 6z

1040mb high over scandy !!

[bluearmy]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Better 6z

1040mb high over scandy !!

Yeah - could see a warm easterly shortly !!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Yeah - could see a warm easterly shortly !!!

Not if the winds are NE mate

[winterof79]

Depends where you live but the trends are still very good

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

Edited December 30, 2017 by winterof79

[Ice Day]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Better 6z

1040mb high over scandy !!

I'll see your 1040mb high and raise it to 1045mb!

Good run for the north but no real cold for the southern half yet.  No point getting hung up on details at this range but (here come's the cliche), the 'trend is our friend'

[bluearmy]

I'm not being serious (well only a bit) - just making a general point that even if we do draw an easterly flow for a few days, there is no certainty that it will pack any real punch. Not that it needs to if there are fronts approaching from the west but a convective easterly will probably require a decent scandi ridge that survives a few days to advect deep cold around the back - most output that build a scandi high sinks it se into Russia drawing in a sou'easter which would obviously be surface cold. 

[swfc]

Wow the uk gets a half decent easterly and the 850s are better in a north westerly in the north Atlantic

Still its a better starting point I guess