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Model output discussion - heading into 2018


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Morning all :)

"Remorselessly Unsettled" is how I would describe the 00Z output. Both GFS and GEM begin the New Year with a very disturbed theme with a train of secondary LPs taking various tracks across the south and the midlands. The GFS rainfall numbers tell the story:

Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

Note the south and woodshed areas copping the most water.

Both the OP and Control on GFS try to build the Azores HP further north as the jet shifts back north into the second week of January but to be fair we've seen this before and it hasn't happened so if we're talking T+324 and beyond certainly not one to believe too strongly at this time and at that time plenty of options in the GEFS as you would expect.

 

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

jan 4  is looking imteresting   for  the uk!!

gfs-2-192.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
7 minutes ago, koeleboe said:

@bluearmyThere were some power issues affecting ECMWF Supercomputers. The power problem is solved, but it takes time to reboot the whole system.

Thnx - I thought it was all the missing data from Xmas that they had to incorporate .................

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

the 00z ecm run hasnt got past day one yet knocks? 

Whoops I thought it had a familiar feel. I could have just reposted last night's post. Get a grip - must do better knocker

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Strange how weather.us and Windy etc seem to be showing the 00z ECM output? 

Ps 8-10cm so far here in Hertfordshire @ 100m ASL so ECM was much closer to the mark than most others. Euro4 was way out 

518374E8-B65C-40EE-A5C1-580A22891F64.png

75CD1541-6952-4F55-8965-F2278E2CFC14.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

EPS are out but can only see them on meteociel so only to 240, Strong signal for Nwerly winds / potential runners etc.

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Well another potential dusting of snow gone bust for us. Very poor GFS forecast for Porthcawl it literally had snow showing across a 50 mile radius. 

Looking at the charts, it doesn't seem like there'll be another chance for us for a while (although the Pembrokeshire Dangler is trying to push further east but not currently falling as snow). The rain & gales will become more frequent unfortunately so flood risk will be getting a real concern after such a wet Christmas & Boxing Day especially, so hopefully February/March will indeed be our snowy months (as it used to be well known for snow to fall and stick here) on the coast next year

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Mmm I suggested yesterday perhaps cold zonal rather than mild zonal, models this morning flipping more towards a colder unsettled outlook - well average at least, with alternations of the UK being on the cold and warm side of the jet, the north remaining on the colder side for longer, and there is an increasing signal for secondary low depressions being spawn from the main parent trough, allowing waves to form on any fronts and troughs, wrap around features, small disturbances in uppers always hovering on the boundary of snow to rain - so an interesting quite problematic synoptical set up for the weather forecasters, lots going on in short-term timeframes making 5/6 day forecasts a headache with much room for margins of error.

Looking at the short-range, Friday could bring some disruptive snow to quite low levels in the north, with a wave forming and colder air over Scotland not budging, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the feature track further south, enabling greater chance of snow for the north.

Weekend looks very unsettled, milder away from Scotland, New Years Day though a bit off could bring some wintry showers to northern parts as well, in a cold NW flow.

Longer term - westerly/north westerly airstream, polar maritime/returning polar maritime dominating rather than tropical maritime... I'm teasing but shades of Jan 1984 perhaps eventually? Oh dear said it now..

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

ECM mean at 240 looks fairly decent to my untrained eye. Trough to the NE and a possible mid Atlantic Ridge. As today and a couple of weeks ago demonstrates ,not a bad set up if your looking for snow. Also now a larger number of GEFS members now showing some form of Scandi ridge in FI

CC8B988B-B92D-4364-9BCA-7BB27493A2F7.png

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
14 minutes ago, shotski said:

ECM mean at 240 looks fairly decent to my untrained eye. Trough to the NE and a possible mid Atlantic Ridge. As today and a couple of weeks ago demonstrates ,not a bad set up if your looking for snow. Also now a larger number of GEFS members now showing some form of Scandi ridge in FI

CC8B988B-B92D-4364-9BCA-7BB27493A2F7.png

Yes more of a polar maritime flow, NW airstream rather than straight westerly or indeed southwesterly. As we move into January, conditions under such synoptics become less and less marginal if you want snow and cold, as the atlantic and arctic continue to cool, this is an important factor, a NW airstream packs a much more wintry punch in Jan and Feb, even March than in December.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes more of a polar maritime flow, NW airstream rather than straight westerly or indeed southwesterly. As we move into January, conditions under such synoptics become less and less marginal if you want snow and cold, as the atlantic and arctic continue to cool, this is an important factor, a NW airstream packs a much more wintry punch in Jan and Feb, even March than in December.

Yes indeed. Pretty much rinse and repeat of what we have seen for the last month . North westlys and as you say less marginal in Jan . Could achally be an interesting month . You don't need raging eastlies to get wintery conditions in Jan . The GFS 6z is looking pretty wintery as well 

 

 

IMG_0962.PNG

IMG_0963.PNG

Edited by ICE COLD
Charts
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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
15 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes more of a polar maritime flow, NW airstream rather than straight westerly or indeed southwesterly. As we move into January, conditions under such synoptics become less and less marginal if you want snow and cold, as the atlantic and arctic continue to cool, this is an important factor, a NW airstream packs a much more wintry punch in Jan and Feb, even March than in December.

Just goes to show that you don’t have to always go chasing the hallowed Greeny, Scandi blocks. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Looks like Russian riding out east could help sharpen any future Euro trough. Helping to veer the flow to a colder nw or even n  at times over the UK. 

Future cold possibilities are there in that set up for sure. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Strange how weather.us and Windy etc seem to be showing the 00z ECM output? 

Ps 8-10cm so far here in Hertfordshire @ 100m ASL so ECM was much closer to the mark than most others. Euro4 was way out 

518374E8-B65C-40EE-A5C1-580A22891F64.png

75CD1541-6952-4F55-8965-F2278E2CFC14.jpeg

localised though Tim - ten miles down the road at similar altitude barely a dusting has stuck 

tough to make a forecast and I think Exeter referencing this difference likely was pretty accurate. 

Eps firming up on troughing into Europe by day 10 - awaiting extended 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Signs of life towards day ten with more digging of low heights into Europe.

Both the ECM and GFS agree on this, the former looks the best going forward but we've been here before so best wait till this shows within T168hrs.

Perhaps we're seeing an early response to the MJO which is set to re-appear in phase 2.

Before that it looks very unsettled with a train of low pressures running quickly east.

If the MJO does re-emerge NOAA do expect it to have an impact on the NH pattern.

Dynamical model MJO index forecasts quite consistently show a re-amplification of the MJO signal as it enters the Indian Ocean, moving away from peak destructive interference with the La Nina signal. Should this occur, Indian Ocean MJO events teleconnect well with the North American midlatitude circulation, and the MJO may therefore help effect a pattern change in the late Week-2 or Week-3/4 period.
 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The 3 anomaly charts I have available below.

Make of them what you wish. To me, overall, they suggest a 500mb flow from a mainly westerly direction. No sign of really mild air nor any sign of any deep protracted cold developing. Much as now perhaps, some milder days interspersed with 24-58 hours of possible snow events as the air does not need much cooling in the general predicted pattern?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=0&type=0&archive=0

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

As to what happens post day 14, don't ask me, I do not pretend to have enough knowledge for much beyond 2 weeks or so. Current ideas, as I see them, have no major suggestion of deep cold developing and lasting but who knows really?

Edited by johnholmes
usual poor spelling
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Meanwhile. Just some light-hearted fun.

Want a snow fix?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

image.thumb.png.c76f2cb7a64859f31987e68925d0d3e3.png

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