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Model output discussion - heading into 2018


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Hope you are all non-ineberated  (if you are then get going?)..

This xmas evenings ecm 12z-WILL- Have defining factors..

So 24/48hrs snaps will be very worthy if your looking for a seasonal suprise!

On the large window its an' amplification drama-queen @times.

But has astute; dynamics for resolve in such matters...-swerving- means ens- and exacting on raw-ops- decipher....

Edit; i will try without'bias' on pin'point guidance of the evolving situ...

Although i look atm primmed for round2 of snow accums??...

Over to the euro-com..

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk, Antingham
  • Weather Preferences: Most except high humidity and thawing snow.
  • Location: North Norfolk, Antingham

Evening,

I have just worked out how to change my profile, but now feel all dressed up with nowhere to go.?

The models have an ominous ring to them with FI seemingly only just this side of infinity. But there are upsides: it’s still only December, it’s not 2015, and the month will run out close to the mean temp. A normal winter, far better in my view than some of the last few. A normal winter springs a few surprises and can include a decent easterly, more often in the second half in my experience.

Enough said. Probably time for a bout of festive amnesia. Good tidings to you all. ?

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Euro4 plays Scrooge, so far south it deposits barely anything. Given the BBC news forecast that highlighted Peak District and Wales one of them is wrong, possibly both!

17122712_2512.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
14 minutes ago, Weathervane said:

Evening,

The models have an ominous ring to them with FI seemingly only just this side of infinity.

 

Not to me I'd prefer deep cold but in all honesty the runs give everybody a bit of what they like. Worst things are Barlett High Euro high or a warm high stuck over us giving us mild gray rubbish. All of those features are slugs that refuse to move.

Edited by The PIT
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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated 36

D101334D-834C-4B4E-936F-5B21B747051C.thumb.png.99ae20ed5df2138673108bccb37db19b.png

Not only is that similar to the last run albeit slightly further south but it also gives the home counties quite a bit of snowfall!!as it stand midlands wales and north london look good!!

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Updated 36

D101334D-834C-4B4E-936F-5B21B747051C.thumb.png.99ae20ed5df2138673108bccb37db19b.png

Not quite sure where that's come from Steve but looks very overplayed

The 12z that I can see over on Weather.us is shown below:

us_model-en-330-0_modez_2017122512_51_4855_108.thumb.png.ce9dbed75c1153c048596a7a4a1deddd.png

Still similar zones but a more realistic look in terms of totals potentially (probably still a tad overdone)

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
6 minutes ago, snowking said:

Not quite sure where that's come from Steve but looks very overplayed

The 12z that I can see over on Weather.us is shown below:

us_model-en-330-0_modez_2017122512_51_4855_108.thumb.png.ce9dbed75c1153c048596a7a4a1deddd.png

Still similar zones but a more realistic look in terms of totals potentially (probably still a tad overdone)

The one steve posted is in inches and the one you posted was in cms!!maybe thats the reason why!!

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Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
4 minutes ago, snowking said:

Not quite sure where that's come from Steve but looks very overplayed

The 12z that I can see over on Weather.us is shown below:

us_model-en-330-0_modez_2017122512_51_4855_108.thumb.png.ce9dbed75c1153c048596a7a4a1deddd.png

Still similar zones but a more realistic look in terms of totals potentially (probably still a tad overdone)

Steve's is for first thing in the morning - yours later on in the day. :)

 

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Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
1 minute ago, stratty said:

Steve's is for first thing in the morning - yours later on in the day. :)

 

Yep I thought of that, but 6am view:

us_model-en-330-0_modez_2017122512_42_4855_108.thumb.png.40bdabc0c1e07742a21761f5239f184e.png

Very odd!

@shaky unfortunately given that 1 inch ~ 2.5cms, those charts still look at odds with one another!

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
5 minutes ago, snowking said:

Yep I thought of that, but 6am view:

us_model-en-330-0_modez_2017122512_42_4855_108.thumb.png.40bdabc0c1e07742a21761f5239f184e.png

Very odd!

@shaky unfortunately given that 1 inch ~ 2.5cms, those charts still look at odds with one another!

Snowking am not sure whether it was you or someone else on the forum that posted an accumalation chart from the last slider but it was different to the one above and it actually gave the figures in cms widely and the deeper the snowfall the more white there was on the map!!am sure it was an ecm snow map!!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Anyway back to the models and ecm brings a cool-cold short blast new years day.beyond that it's looking like a ptetty bog standard flow West to east

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Southwards tracking is the order of the day..

And i have purpose' refrained from both accu-charts and 850-marginal interp...

There looks to be deposits that even met-0' are of non exact so again reckon ;the nowcast fortunes.

...

Backing off and evaluation of the northetn hem- splits/snaps...

Its so on the edge its bizzare..

Us-trough/and punching at the pole is so fickle its as wobbly as a weeble..

And we COULD; find ourselves in a outward looking glass of definate colder infer via penninsula^/russian pump..

With an' exaction of heights and swing @scandi

ECH1-192.gif

ECU1-72.GIF

ECM1-168.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Ponteland
  • Location: Ponteland
18 minutes ago, booferking said:

80s style Easterly in Jan is coming i can feel it this winter is different from the last few.:)

No real signs of the beast but yes it could be lurking for about 19 th of January,in the meantime happy new year to one and all . ( must stop drinking- New Years resolution).

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
4 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

Downgrade from the BBC for here. Gone from heavy snow for 10 hours to sleet. ?

Ten hours of snow???where are you lap land! !!:)

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Just looking though the Ecm 12z shows more cold days / nights than mild so that's something worth celebrating at least!:drinks::drunk-emoji::santa-emoji:..whether that's due to lack of balloon data i don't know but I'll take it!:D

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240_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850.png

giphy.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
19 minutes ago, Matthew Gill said:

Downgrade from the BBC for here. Gone from heavy snow for 10 hours to sleet. ?

BBC (met) raw data not looking to bad for the higher parts of Gloucestershire, it's a. given its not everyone's cup of tea but does highlight the slight southerly adjustment and potential for those in other areas further south 

IMG_3126.thumb.PNG.88f33fae0facb447bbaa2cebf6215a00.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Skipping tomorrow which is well covered, according to the ecm by18 Thursday the UK is more or less in a col resulting in, at best, max temps around 4C,

But by 12 Friday the upper trough is dominating the Atlantic whilst the trough to the east is being forced south and deconstructing courtesy of the blocking east European ridge. Ergo there are number of lows littered about in the Atlantic north of a strong SW-NE jet. By 00 Saturday one of these has rushed north east and is 960mb west of the Hebrides with the associated fronts already into the western half of Britain accompanied by heavy rain and gale force winds. The front quickly crosses the country and twelve hours later the low is in the north of the North sea and the front is over Denmark leaving the UK in a strong unstable westerly with frequent showers in the western half of the country. There is quite a temp spread during this quick transition on Saturday from 3-4C in Scotland to 11C in the south of England thus some of the precipitation could be of snow up north, particularly over the high ground but the main problem will be the wind.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_5.thumb.png.13b3a412e1c066afa3fab823c23af4e6.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.508955e714e4433d19b099f8f93fa8a6.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_7.thumb.png.8f71b926b6dc0177cda7e0bd1a651f86.png

The 6-10 anomaly pretty much as expected.

ecm_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.5ba8059aa3ec08de0ca89602b1bf1dd1.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Chris Fawkes after tonights ECM

EC12Z run has shifted snow south 27th December, London Midlands & Wales latest targets, still 15-20+cm

giphy.gif

Temps for Wednesday close to marginal for some still

50_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.37b5a603831884cb93754a146488cec5.png52_uk2mtmp.thumb.png.528a2bc8dbcd2c126146b054cf4cd05c.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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Guest Durham Weather

Looking to be a repeat of two weeks ago then, with the main snow band crossing the south and little action for the north. Oh well .... ?

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