Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

No model ramblings for me this late just wanted to say a Merry Christmas to everyone here. 

And here’s to a happy and hopefully snowy New Year!  

And there was me thinking you was coming on to say that NOAA discussions were dismissing all model output apart from the few scandi highs on the eps because the upstream profile fitted them better and all state forecasts were using a blend of Jan 1987 and feb1991 to make their predictions.

[Allseasons-Si]

40 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Merry Christmas one and all, I’ll sign off with some cold Ens members 

Ignore the mild ones, ba hum bug ?

I wish shannon enter..what's it's face a very merry Christmas

control run a trend setter

 

Edited December 25, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Merry Christmas all my weather friends forever have a good one 

[swfc]

Merry xmas everyone from a dank mild Sheffield. The 18z did show a glimmer of hope in fi with an attempt at building a scan high ete

Wish it was at 48hrs looking at the nhp and pv at the 130h mark because it isnt pretty.whatever the weather enjoy ,make merry and stay safe .

Edited December 25, 2017 by swfc

[knocker]

Today heavy rain in N. Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England will turn to snow over the Scottish mountains later. Elsewhere England and Wales will be cloudy in the moist south westerly airstream with temps above average but later in the day rain will affect western parts as a front tracks east. This will clear the east coast by morning bringing sporadic rain to most places and some snow on the higher ground to the north,

Apart from wintry showers in the north of Scotland tomorrow will be a tad sunnier and crisper than of late but by late afternoon rain, and some snow on the Welsh mountains, will be into the south west as the wave depression approaches and is 982mb in the Celtic Sea at 1800. By 00 Wednesday it is over the east midlands with the main snow area N. Wales and NW midlands. By 06 it is 977mb in the North Sea with the main snow area Wales. the south west and the Midlands which then moves east. But this is still a long way from being set in stone so keep a beady on subsequent bulletins.

The low then continues east into southern Norway initiating a cold northerly over the UK for a couple of days but by late Thursday the UK is in a col as the next low and associated front approach from the west but with the wind abating a very cold day ensues with temps struggling to reach 4C and lower in some places. The front with perturbations duly crosses the country Friday morning bringing patchy rain and snow on the Scottish mountains and much warmer air with it  Thus fairly windy in the westerly airstream over the weekend with patchy rain/drizzle but as mentioned much warmer air, albeit quite a latitudinal variation, with temps reaching 13C in places.

For the rest of the week the pattern amplifies somewhat but with a lot of energy leaving the eastern seaboard south of the cold trough still fairly mobile. Thus the alternate trough/ridge scenario is the order of the day, as the the warm and cold .cold air interacts so periods of rain (perhaps snow on the higher ground in the north) with drier interludes. Very windy at times with quite a spread of temps but generally around the average. But not to get too hung up on next week as this obviously will change.

 

Edited December 25, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm has the low 982mb Celtic Sea to north Devon at 1800 Tuesday with much rain in south west.

By 00 it is along the M4 and at 06 Wednesday it is orientated Sussex to great Yarmouth.

For what it's worth the ecm is showing quite substantial snow falls for Wales and the Midlands with lesser amounts for counties in the south west

[Ali1977]

Merry crimstmas all, and some good news is that the ENS are showing a Scandy high in FI on the majority - of sorts anyway 

[Duane S.]

Happy Christmas to everybody on NW!

The Scandinavian high building scenario just won't go away. I was posting charts days ago about this, the GEFS backed off a tad and now it's back and some. Note of caution though, very few are 'classic' charts, most are against the backdrop of a pretty ferocious Atlantic so would have more than a fight on its hands to deliver any sort of a sustainable PC airmass. But great to see nevertheless and certainly a trend to watch through the festive period.

18z...

 

00z...

And there were others where HP to the east was clearly present, perhaps a bit further any and less influential.

Edit: And I do realise some above are a little more Russian than Scandinavian. Still worth posting though imo.

Edited December 25, 2017 by s4lancia

[Day 10]

Merry Christmas to everyone in this thoroughly enjoyable rollercoaster of a thread. Here's hoping we all see at least one decent snowfall this Winter. 

[KTtom]

Some good charts there s4lancia. Could be even better if we had the missing Xmas data input....Happy Christmas 

[northwestsnow]

EC brings a cold PM flow for new years!!

Infact,despite all the negativity previously the GEFS 00z are also trending colder !!

Happy christmas everyone

[Fozfoster]

Merry Christmas everyone and a cold new year ❄️,hopefully ?

[tinybill]

merry  xmas   all just looked at f1  if that comes off we will all go in to the deep  cold!!!

[mulzy]

Merry xmas all and one.

Let's drink to a very snowy new year!

[johnholmes]

Happy Christmas everyone.

The models are still not totally settled on its precise track, so just who gets snow and who has cold rain is still not clear. Watch the models and eat your turkey today!

[chris55]

Merry Christmas to all  ?Hope your turkey is moist and your sprouts are crunchy  

latest ECM snow levels from Wednesdays low,

As others have said exact track and nature of the system to be decided regarding rain/snow. But nice to have the risk of at least some seeing falling snow over the xmas week .

[A.J]

1 hour ago, tinybill said:

merry  xmas   all just looked at f1  if that comes off we will all go in to the deep  cold!!!

Yes,, a merry christmas to all on NW......and yes I also looked at deep f1 and it looks a belter, Lewis Hamilton is a shoe-in for the world title! 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO going to go colder into 2018?

ECM has a major low heading to Iceland right at the end

Must be that lack of data affecting it

[high ground birmingham]

54 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Merry Christmas to all  ?Hope your turkey is moist and your sprouts are crunchy  

latest ECM snow levels from Wednesdays low,

As others have said exact track and nature of the system to be decided regarding rain/snow. But nice to have the risk of at least some seeing falling snow over the xmas week .

I hope that’s correct. Birmingham in the middle of it all again.

track is still subject to changes in my opinion 

[Southender]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO going to go colder into 2018?

ECM has a major low heading to Iceland right at the end

Must be that lack of data affecting it

Great. The day I fly into Reykjavik ? Hopefully I will make it in one piece and see a full on blizzard.

[Timmytour]

8 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

I wish shannon enter..what's it's face a very merry Christmas

control run a trend setter

 

Be an interesting stat if the data has ever been collated. What percentage of an outlier control or op run turns out to be a trendsetter? 

Merry Xmas all 

[bluearmy]

Felicitations ........

apart from the track of the runner tues/wed (which seems to remain snow line s Wales running up to the wash with a thirty mile spread either side ) , my eyes are taken in the extended period by the amplification to our north/northeast on the gefs (that is getting stronger if anything) and the eps where a mean pattern which doesn't look łike it should be cool returns uppers a little below average. 

I assume the clusters will shortly reveal why 

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Felicitations ........

apart from the track of the runner tues/wed (which seems to remain snow line s Wales running up to the wash with a thirty mile spread either side ) , my eyes are taken in the extended period by the amplification to our north/northeast on the gefs (that is getting stronger if anything) and the eps where a mean pattern which doesn't look łike it should be cool returns uppers a little below average. 

I assume the clusters will shortly reveal why 

Good spot - forgot to check the uppers this time, was about to post that the eps mean has flipped to pants again (good job I didn't) after 1 good run, Generally the EPS are the best guidance at this range but because its only recently that I have been able to have access to extended eps data, I have more experience of the GEFS and one thing I have noticed is they are more sensitive and will generally be first to spot a trend towards proper blocking, whether that's because they go out to 16 days as opposed to 15 (probably not as sometimes new trends are spotted in d 13-14), more probably that I tend to ignore 3 - 5 stragglers that show bitter cold on the ECM London 2m temp graph as one tends to think that's normal on a 50 member suite, but when 3-5 start flatlining on the 850 GEFS graph, I sit up and take notice.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Good spot - forgot to check the uppers this time, was about to post that the eps mean has flipped to pants again (good job I didn't) after 1 good run, Generally the EPS are the best guidance at this range but because its only recently that I have been able to have access to extended eps data, I have more experience of the GEFS and one thing I have noticed is they are more sensitive and will generally be first to spot a trend towards proper blocking, whether that's because they go out to 16 days as opposed to 15 (probably not as sometimes new trends are spotted in d 13-14), more probably that I tend to ignore 3 - 5 stragglers that show bitter cold on the ECM London 2m temp graph as one tends to think that's normal on a 50 member suite, but when 3-5 start flatlining on the 850 GEFS graph, I sit up and take notice.

The eps probability is growing higher slp to our east/south by end week two but not getting it far enough north. The clusters are pretty diverse and plentiful. looks to be  just a case of watching and waiting to see what becomes the favoured direction of travel into the new year. 

[Man With Beard]

The T192 (2 Jan) main two clusters look ripe for a short wintry period as one of those "temporary ridges" I've been watching for builds on the back of a trough that slips to the east

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2017/12/25/00/ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2017122500_192.png

Must say, for a period that some people are writing off, there does seem to be rather a few snow chances popping up. 

(sorry not sure why it's displaying as a link rather than pic)

Edited December 25, 2017 by Man With Beard