Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[tight isobar]

16 minutes ago, knocker said:

Will be worth screen-shot/saving the 12z gfs operational 48/96 hrs...

Then await ec-12z data to trickle out...

(For compare)

We know 99:9% ec track/gradient will be most likely on a southerly ebb/placement..

But by now will be telling either way overall' although fruition obviously debateable.

And i'll still flag the underestimate of colder uppers via the backing incursion of establishing incoming cold...

Edited December 24, 2017 by tight isobar

[weirpig]

Arpege take on things. Similar areas to last event 

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Don’t show this to CreweCold he’ll have a fit. Jan 2018 from CFSv2 

Looks like record breaking warmth in many parts of the continent! You'd think that Greenland would be below average but the CFS wants to paint everything red or orange at best.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Looks like record breaking warmth in many parts of the continent! You'd think that Greenland would be below average but the CFS wants to paint everything red or orange at best.

The cfs likes the coulour red..

As its associated with embarassment!

Edited December 24, 2017 by tight isobar

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

Looks like record breaking warmth in many parts of the continent! You'd think that Greenland would be below average but the CFS wants to paint everything red or orange at best.

It does indeed, karyo...and it's not what I expected the 'LIA Footprint' to look like at all!

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The cfs likes the coulour red..

As its associated with embarassment!

It used to look the blue too but it has abandoned that colour. lol

Edited December 24, 2017 by karyo

[Nick F]

FWIW, 12z UKMET-G further north in track with 26/27th low compared to the 00z this morning:

12z T+60

00z T+72

Will the 12z EC edge further north?

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

24 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Fax charts are showing the incursive front on 26/12 - 27/12 as occluded. This compares to a warm front earlier in the similar setup earlier this month.

Would anyone care to comment on this. Latest 12z GFS snow risk and precipitation type charts continue to show this as much more significant for southern England than the last event.

Richard

been enjoying your posts and I concur with many of your thoughts. Definitely an upgrade of potential and in such neartime.

Merry Christmas to you and ALL members and visitors.

Will try and look in but a quick off topic message....my mother has had infection and was going ‘loopy’ but after 2 admissions to hosp in last 5 weeks now home and much more herself. My dad who has dialysis 3x per week is now in hosp for xmas, nearly lost him last Monday due to severe reaction to meds.....now getting ok. Travelled to Swansea on Wed and got a day pass on 22nd to bring him home for 80th celebration.  Great day with my brothers and dad.

Message is.....be happy, enjoy the weather and models....as long as all are ok come rain, sun, mild, warm  or cold.....its all good.

 Warmest Xmas wishes to you ALL....snow is coming

 BFTP aka Fred

[Snowstorm1]

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Richard

been enjoying your posts and I concur with many of your thoughts. Definitely an upgrade of potential and in such neartime.

Merry Christmas to you and ALL members and visitors.

Will try and look in but a quick off topic message....my mother has had infection and was going ‘loopy’ but after 2 admissions to hosp in last 5 weeks now home and much more herself. My dad who has dialysis 3x per week is now in hosp for xmas, nearly lost him last Monday due to severe reaction to meds.....now getting ok. Travelled to Swansea on Wed and got a day pass on 22nd to bring him home for 80th celebration.  Great day with my brothers and dad.

Message is.....be happy, enjoy the weather and models....as long as all are ok come rain, sun, mild, warm  or cold.....its all good.

 Warmest Xmas wishes to you ALL....snow is coming

 BFTP aka Fred

Well said Fred:-) Christmas is a family time yes we all love snow but at the end of the day it’s family who matters ☺️ I for one will be proud to spend Christmas with my family and see my nana in hospital as at the end of the day it’s family who matters :-) may I take this opportunity to wish everyone a merry Christmas on netweather and have a wonderful Christmas and hopefully snowy in the next few days or eventually when it occurs :-) MERRY CHRISTMAS everybody !!!! ❄️ Love to everyone ❤️

[knocker]

Another 'bomb' along the east coast of north America that ends up dominating the Atlantic. This is not that an unusual occurrence in this region as it is often a major baroclinic zone with strong sea-surface temp gradients.

 

[sausage]

30 minutes ago, Nick F said:

FWIW, 12z UKMET-G further north in track with 26/27th low compared to the 00z this morning:

12z T+60

00z T+72

Will the 12z EC edge further north?

 

i hope so for a change. weve missed out twice otherwise and with model output not looking good in the near future mkes it more comcerning. 

[nick sussex]

The UKMO tries to develop another slider low  but doesn’t quite manage it between T96 and T120hrs .

The GFS looks the most progressive so far this evening . Both the UKMO and GEM develop a shortwave upstream near Newfoundland which runs east and phases with the main low allowing a slowing of that.

At the same time some energy disrupts se. 

Theres good agreement though unfortunately that the cold will struggle to last past next Thursday on the GFS , a bit later into Friday in the UKMO and GEM.

To have any chance of extending that we’d need to see that second slider low and more amplitude upstream . It’s a struggle especially as the upstream low shows little sign of disrupting.

Anyway at least 3 days of colder conditions , chances of some snow for favoured areas so at least some interest .

Edited December 24, 2017 by nick sussex

[Methuselah]

Well, for however long the relative cold lasts, I look forward to building the world's biggest potentialman sometime this week...GFS/ECM/UKMO permitting!

[shaky]

Ecm further south and west compared to gfs and ukmo!!think this slider will probably run across the southern midlands on this run so maybe slightly further  north compared to the 00z run!!

[tight isobar]

As valued" ec drives feature southward.

And i'll beat the drum 'again'...850s /overheads needs more time in the pan' undercooked...

Think partner ec-outs will now begin a show on this...

A devolping situation that is frought with underestimate.. via- lower elevation/and/or total impactuals of cooling evaporation.. and precip rates.

This looks more adjustable than previous slid-and zip!!!!

Some suprises in the mix without doubt.

Edited December 24, 2017 by tight isobar

[knocker]

The ecm has it north of Cornwall 982mb at 1800 Tuesday and then Newbury 980mb at 00 with the main precipitation belt Wales east across the Midlands but it's very knife edgy for snow. By 06 it's over East Anglia. This will be a case of waiting for the day.

Edited December 24, 2017 by knocker

[nick sussex]

GFS the odd one out at T96 hrs.

The ECM also develops the Newfoundland shortwave.

You can see the difference the upstream shortwave makes if you compare the GFS and ECM at T120hrs.

Theres no chance of holding back the deep low heights without that.

It’s still a struggle though unless the slider clears se and detaches from the low heights upstream .

We’re probably talking of just scraping another days cold but better than nothing !

Edited December 24, 2017 by nick sussex

[West is Best]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Richard

been enjoying your posts and I concur with many of your thoughts. Definitely an upgrade of potential and in such neartime.

Merry Christmas to you and ALL members and visitors.

Will try and look in but a quick off topic message....my mother has had infection and was going ‘loopy’ but after 2 admissions to hosp in last 5 weeks now home and much more herself. My dad who has dialysis 3x per week is now in hosp for xmas, nearly lost him last Monday due to severe reaction to meds.....now getting ok. Travelled to Swansea on Wed and got a day pass on 22nd to bring him home for 80th celebration.  Great day with my brothers and dad.

Message is.....be happy, enjoy the weather and models....as long as all are ok come rain, sun, mild, warm  or cold.....its all good.

 Warmest Xmas wishes to you ALL....snow is coming

 BFTP aka Fred

Merry Christmas Fred and what a top post. I'm sending best possible healing vibes for your mum and dad. You are absolutely right.

very very best wishes,

Richard

[bluearmy]

Ecm consistent with entry into sw england but then swings ne earlier than previous runs and exits Suffolk/Norfolk - snow band mainly Cardiff  up to Leicester - work 30 miles either side of that line. Naturally until this swing ne is sorted pinning down the snow risk area remains tough.

[snowking]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ecm consistent with entry into sw england but then swings ne earlier than previous runs and exits Suffolk/Norfolk - snow band mainly Cardiff  up to Leicester - work 30 miles either side of that line. Naturally until this swing ne is sorted pinning down the snow risk area remains tough.

Yep latest run looks reminiscent of some of the runs a few days before our last slider episode and more in line with the rest of the 12z suites so far

Plenty more twists and turns which will no doubt result in some angry gravy throwing at the dinner table tomorrow

[tight isobar]

Like a kid with a bad haircut..

N/h view polar vortex is cropped with spillage of cold bottling into lower geographical parts.

Mjo is on a play will i wont i by now...

And its carving out like a butcher with a blunt knife...

But..with this evolution ec12z..it even gives scope for sneaky poss- height building eastern seasbord  -into greenland-'perhaps' and things relax a little in the usa freezer trough!!??,

Edited December 24, 2017 by tight isobar

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, snowking said:

Yep latest run looks reminiscent of some of the runs a few days before our last slider episode and more in line with the rest of the 12z suites so far

Plenty more twists and turns which will no doubt result in some angry gravy throwing at the dinner table tomorrow

Ecm was pretty good below T72 last time and was always correcting marginally south - this time it has gradually accented this swing ne (which other models have also been showing)

of more note are the uppers across the eastern side of the states at day 7 showing up to 25c below normal !!!!!!!

[nick sussex]

Huge differences over the USA between the ECM and the rest .

Complex interaction between southern  and northern jet streams and phasing issues.

Preferably we want the earliest phasing of those streams as that blows up the low and tracks its further ne not east , downstream you might carve a ridge out .

[tight isobar]

17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Huge differences over the USA between the ECM and the rest .

Complex interaction between southern  and northern jet streams and phasing issues.

Preferably we want the earliest phasing of those streams as that blows up the low and tracks its further ne not east , downstream you might carve a ridge out .

Yeah- deffo nick.

Its been catching the eye with momentum' as has designs for carving of heights in and around point tip-greenland...as an-MLB..

however with polar warmth anoms and varied, vortex placements..as crazy as it sounds...our little cold spell 26/29 dec..

Could become a lot more notable after a breifly unworthy transtional blink eye mildER blip....

Going into 2018....

Edit;

Anyway im off to the south east/east anglia thread for a few days' as some in our region look primmed for the white stuff ..and some more notable than others given where you reside..

And im further encouraged via what is showing nearer per- could be in for my second accumlate of 2017!...

 

Edited December 24, 2017 by tight isobar

[Dennis]

well ec showed some and our CMA weather model too ....ridge possible to SCANDI