Model output discussion - heading into 2018

[nick sussex]

It might not amount to much going forward but you can see how much slower todays UKMO is at bringing that low out of the ne USA:

Yesterdays UKMO 12hrs run to T144hrs versus todays to T120hrs:

 

Todays to T120hrs:

 

 

 

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It might not amount to much going forward but you can see how much slower todays UKMO is at bringing that low out of the ne USA:

Yesterdays UKMO 12hrs run to T144hrs versus todays to T120hrs:

 

Todays to T120hrs:

 

 

 

I was thinking that when I saw the UKMO, a full 24hr slower, could be more developments for coldies to come yet.

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

I was thinking that when I saw the UKMO, a full 24hr slower, could be more developments for coldies to come yet.

I think it’s going to be difficult to see some big changes given the good agreement overall but it’s more the issue of the jet track into the UK as to how far south that might be.

Tonights UKMO has the PV lobe better orientated at T120hrs.

Perhaps the absolute best you could squeeze out of the medium term is to angle the jet a bit more favourably .

Anyway ECM coming out now, come on ECM its nearly Christmas , we still believe in Santa ! 

[shaky]

Ecm much further south and west with the slider at 72 hours!!good consistency with the 00z!!

[Daniel*]

Good continuity with ECM 12z albeit more south than 00z, let’s hope it doesn’t turn into slidergate.  

 

 

[knocker]

The ecm runs the low along the south coast, centred over Cornwall 1800 Tuesday. Snow knife edge M4 corridor

Edited December 23, 2017 by knocker

[Daniel*]

ECM is interesting spawns a ‘daughter low’ / shortwave the day after snow risk there too perhaps more widespread and less marginal..  looks very complicated and messy to me.

Makes for a very interesting Christmas week unusual for coldies!

 

[gottolovethisweather]

13 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm runs the low along the south coast, centred over Cornwall 1800 Tuesday. Snow knife edge M4 corridor

With even, Knocker, not knocking the snow chances, let's hope it doesn't go Knockers up.  It won't affect Sidney chaps, he'll be roasting his chestnuts on the open fire by then, or me I suspect as literally sit half a mile due South of the M4. Same as last time, then.  Snow Joke! Interesting times ahead, whatever. At least, it will be cold.er' than of late, therefore more seasonal and some WILL get snow. 

Edited December 23, 2017 by gottolovethisweather

[nick sussex]

Yes I believe do you! 

The ECM develops more amplitude upstream and holds back the main low at T144hrs.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes I believe do you! 

The ECM develops more amplitude upstream and holds back the main low at T144hrs.

Still goes rubbish by 168 though

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Still goes rubbish by 168 though

Yes but the colder weather is extended by a day . Small steps , not saying we’ll see a miracle but can we squeeze a bit more amplitude in the next few runs.

Compare yesterday’s ECM 12hrs run to T168hrs to todays to T144hrs. Quite some change.

Edited December 23, 2017 by nick sussex

[northwestsnow]

ukmo quite a bit colder than the EC  (at 120 the crucial timeframe)

I would have thought the further south the slider the colder uppers would be more widespread??

EC pushes the colder air away by thur !

Edited December 23, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

ukmo quite a bit colder than the EC

I would have thought the further south the slider the colder uppers would be more widespread??

Wouldn't worry too much at this range.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

Wouldn't worry too much at this range.

EC snow lottery charts now show the bulk of the precip missing the midlands!!

Incredible stuff!

[Methuselah]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes but the colder weather is extended by a day . Small steps , not saying we’ll see a miracle but can we squeeze a bit more amplitude in the next few runs.

Compare yesterday’s ECM 12hrs run to T168hrs to todays to T144hrs. Quite some change.

Let me know when it's been extended by a month, Nick...

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC snow lottery charts now show the bulk of the precip missing the midlands!!

Incredible stuff!

And gives 6 inches to North west London!!!!  HA HA HA

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And gives 6 inches to North west London!!!!  HA HA HA

Fake news!  

Less snow than the 00z run from that slider as it runs a similar track but has a slightly less elongated shape and turns ne a bit earlier than the previous run 

the main news to take is the track is consistent - the shape of the feature etc is yet to be decided 

latest T72 fax shows the low centre the same position as the previous T84 - further north than ecm 

Edited December 23, 2017 by bluearmy

[Weather-history]

Why is it when it is summer in the southern hemisphere, that the polar vortex still is notable there?

Compare to northern hemisphere, two days after our summer solstice.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Why is it when it is summer in the southern hemisphere, that the polar vortex still is notable there?

Compare to northern hemisphere, two days after our summer solstice.

Is it to do with the land mass kev ? 

[Weathizard]

6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Why is it when it is summer in the southern hemisphere, that the polar vortex still is notable there?

Compare to northern hemisphere, two days after our summer solstice.

I'm no expert by any means but I would guess it might be because Antarctica is mostly land whereas the arctic is ocean? I could be wrong though 

[northwestsnow]

As blue says i dont think anyone would want the EC 12z to verify- a lot more wet than white!

[Frosty.]

That's some impressive mild mush later on the Ecm 12z this evening..hohoho

Edited December 23, 2017 by Frosty.

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is it to do with the land mass kev ? 

 

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I'm no expert by any means but I would guess it might be because Antarctica is mostly land whereas the arctic is ocean? I could be wrong though 

Not sure what the amount of land has to do with the vortex but can you imagine if the northern polar vortex was like that in early July? 

[knocker]

The cut off upper low in the eastern Mediterranean came about because at around T156 the high pressure in eastern Europe temporarily amplified causing the trough over Scandinavia to deconstruct pushing the resulting low south. This also temporarily slowed eastward momentum.

Edited December 23, 2017 by knocker

[northwestsnow]

Have to laugh at the EC depth charts ! Can one imagine how much it will show if we ever get a convective easterly with snow showers piling in off the north sea? LOL they would have to change the scaling ..

(Not that we will see a convective easterly anytime soon).

As an aside i assume things have changed drastically (whats new when it comes to snow in my locale) because he was tweeting about the potential for heavy snow across the pennines earlier - bbc raw app has me dry as a bone until fri- when yep, you guessed it, the precip arrives, as heavy rain).

Gotta keep LOLing;

Edited December 23, 2017 by northwestsnow