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Model output discussion - heading into 2018


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.

If you felt inclined to view the latter frames of the GFS 0z, you would note a scandi high, all be it a short lived one.

 

Edited by jvenge
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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast

I would advise everyone not to look past 222h on the gfs instead look at the clear sign at 156h over the pacific / Alaska gfs is giving us

 

gfsnh-0-156.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay

A great finish by gfs on its latest run showing a cold pool to the east ready to pile in!! Interesting times ahead this winter compared to last few. I have a "feeling" about this one don't you ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

I would advise everyone not to look past 222h on the gfs instead look at the clear sign at 156h over the pacific / Alaska gfs is giving us

 

gfsnh-0-156.png

I'm a novice so I would be interested in your  thoughts on this 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
4 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

I'm a novice so I would be interested in your  thoughts on this 

It's a joke, look at the blue over Alaska, what does it look like?  The rest of the run turns into a very pleasant surprise with a Scandi high developing but deep in fi so prepare for disappointment when it does not verify 

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Today and the weekend can be summed up with a fairly simple general comment. England and Wales in the generally light circulation of the high pressure to the south will thus be cloudy with some light drizzle in the west today with temps a little above normal whilst whilst a front and a little wave will affect north west Scotland later today and remain in attendance over the weekend bringing some heavy rain which will slip south over the course of the weekend as far as N. Ireland. Eastern Scotland should escape this and remain clear. There could be 3-4inch of rain in parts of the west coast of Scotland.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.632aecff95490eb997ace35a0024db18.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.4eaeb6268245e61b83912b2f9bd55168.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.924b6b79729a7ab205d3a048f3bb908a.gif

So we come to 12 Monday and a wave has formed on the aforementioned front and is 989mb just west of Stornoway with the front and rain orientated Scotland down the just west of Cornwall. The front tracks east into the North Sea by early Tuesday morning whilst the low deepens and drifts east of Aberdeen which could well produce some gales along the north west coast and perhaps some heavy snowfall over the mountains of northern Scotland as the wind briefly veers north easterly during the journey.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.792815e9790b881e346a92bc090a34c1.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_18.thumb.png.ff96ca9b31ecb6b5c43aa7296b4ed4eb.png

The low continues to deepen and drift to the vicinity of south west Norway but meanwhile whilst all this has been going  on a number of little waves have formed on a front in mid Atlantic that have coalesced into one low (more or less) that has tracked south east on a strong low level jet, that has swung around a transient ridge, to be over southern England by 1800 Tuesday. Now this could initiate some snow on it's northern edge in the northerly flow introduced by the earlier low.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_20.thumb.png.64d09792a1df17dec68fc22b2a6ae956.pnggfs_uv500_natl_20.thumb.png.85b041c3909fbb9b18a0616167918e5b.png

The low quickly moves east initiating a brief northerly and we now come to a situation which, imo, was indicated by last night's anomalies  And that is an Atlantic and NW Europe dominated by an upper trough with two centres  that produces a quite complex surface analysis as can be seen by the T144 chart. The original low still hanging around south west Norway but with a strong jet running east around 49N is driving an active front which is orientated NW/SE across N. Ireland to southern England. This could also produce snow on it's northern edge as it tracks north east, particularly on the higher ground and in Scotland.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_25.thumb.png.2bd65ae875ed12830a193ed09a83fca8.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_26.thumb.png.20680a7293b0f89d021907caa0ada60a.pnggfs_uv500_natl_25.thumb.png.efbbc2150a3c7e6611f92d6d9f1a66b9.png

From this point things get more complicated with sundry lows littered across the Atlantic as the low level jet swings south east across Cornwall before a massive amplification surge that ends with a high cell over Scandinavia.:shok: Obviously this just to be noted en passant, so to speak

gfs_ptype_slp_eur3_31.thumb.png.ca0057f891acd6b3efe81126ff480662.pnggfs_uv500_natl_31.thumb.png.4b7d273927101553ffb9b4aba10f878a.pnggfs_z500a_nh_41.thumb.png.f619d668b71c44be9468f14aa3d60db9.png

And this morning's GEFS mean anomaly would not support this

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_53.thumb.png.bee706ffef24dbc6170de4f5177a82cf.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
6 hours ago, s4lancia said:

What a contrasting night of quality of posts The 18z came and went without so much as a mention during.

So many excellent posts trying hard to emphasise and get across the perennial difficulties with background signals/teleconnections and the subsequent weather 'on the ground'. 

Weather forecasting all boils down to atmospheric drivers (I.e. QBO MJO ENSO and I'd include solar). What their values are and even what they are forecast to be isn't the issue, it's their interaction with each other and the degree to which. Which ones are connected, which ones disconnected. Which ones will override / supersede / enhance / mute which ones, if any. All of which makes accurate forecasting 10 days+ ahead (let alone 20 odd days) for a location such as ours, a virtual impossibility. Of course some set ups,those more zonalesque, lend themselves to being more predictable.

We will need a bit of luck here but I still think a Scandinavian high could still form out of this come early January. Whether that would go on to produce an Easterly for us though is another (and very hypothetical) issue altogether.

Brilliant post.

 

In a nutshell our winter weather is virtually unpredictable . 

Everyone , please forget winter F1 charts because More often than not they show amazing Christmas postcard winter scenes deep cold snow which get watered down of evaporate completely to rain mild nearer the day and day by day , I'm a big snow cold weather fan but I have seen it all too many times . 

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm starts differing from the gfs from very early in the run. It  At T72 it runs the shallow wave north of Scotland into southern Norway and thus no gales or mayor snow risk, albeit still a lot of rain on the front in the west.

The front duly traverses the UK overnight Monday but the next low is further north and is across the north of England by 00 Wednesday bringing some heavy rain with it.

This quickly moves away east before he next low and associated front arrive late Thursday bringing more rain and perhaps gales in the south.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_4.thumb.png.e3bbf11df4850736c2febe99dafc6b69.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_6.thumb.png.3127d622a10d75f17dd5398c25725287.pngecm_mslp_uv850_natl_8.thumb.png.9d79719bfd1e16873f6e7f06a80f64f4.png

The 6-10 anomaly is not a million miles from last night's anomalies

ecm_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.b92a9438da21b6633005b75dd1e3bcab.pngecm_t850a_5d_eur_10.thumb.png.0e3dd65be249c9e510e56ace2620cb55.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ooz suites are of good viewing.

And are a 'definite' middle finger to an' atlantic onslaught.

With all-gfs/ecm/ukmo/gem...

All looking at some form of mlb/scandi height rises..and all have at least one northerly incursion between boxing/new-years day.

Already a more promising outlook via the operationals.

A better guidance will no doubt become clearer via the rest of todays suites6z/12z.

With all due respect ti why am I receiving a different ecm output to you?

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
7 minutes ago, knocker said:

With all due respect ti why am I receiving a different ecm output to you?

I think it is with regards to the later output and the hints of ridging in the Atlantic. Not enough to stop the procession but it start eh? Times are hard at the mo:D 

IMG_0215.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
15 minutes ago, knocker said:

With all due respect ti why am I receiving a different ecm output to you?

 

15 minutes ago, knocker said:

With all due respect ti why am I receiving a different ecm output to you?

I was just highlighting the signals via the operationals.

With regards to modeled northerly-outbreaks.

Clearly shown via all ooz ops.

all of variable time frames and evolutions

But a reference that never ending mobile onslaught-is highly unlikely through dates mentioned.

and if anything its mobility being watered down gradualy...

At least via the ops...as mentioned!.

With the gem being pick of bunch..typicaly cannot upload!

 

ECM1-240.gif

UW144-21.gif

gfs-0-120.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
16 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

 

I was just highlighting the signals via the operationals.

 

I accept that a ridge pops up at the end of the ecm run but the whole of the latter part of the run features a mobile pattern with a very strong jet (well in excess of 100kts) running from west to east around the pressure fluctuations. The T216 chart illustrates this so in the circumstances I would not take the ridge T240 as a 'signal'  but for sure this is just my opinion.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.thumb.png.a2c621113faf460c451046b03dd861ce.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, knocker said:

I accept that that a ridge pops up at the end of the ecm run but the whole of the latter part of the run features a mobile pattern with a very strong jet running from west to east around the pressure fluctuations. The T216 chart illustrates this so in the circumstances I would not take the ridge T240 as a 'signal'  but for sure this is just my opinion.

ecm_mslp_uv850_natl_10.thumb.png.a2c621113faf460c451046b03dd861ce.png

I fully agree as ecm is@240 hrs..

'However' with full suite support of the mentioned/...(all other mods)

It has to be(imo) a signal...as its again one flagged through all other suites.-given- they are on variable times/evolutions....

I think its worthy of note!.

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I fully agree as ecm is@240 hrs..

'However' with full suite support of the mentioned/...

It has to be(imo) a signal...as its again one flagged through all other suites.-given- they are on variable times/evolutions....

I think its worthy of note!.

Okay.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

EC 00z operational follows the the ext eps posted last night in dragging the trough into Europe- interesting!!'

Hopefully this is a trend that will gather momentum over the coming days- GFS too attempting to build height to our NE in FI, although it does get pushed back east from a very angry looking Atlantic..

Still from acorns grow :)

EC day 10

 

ECU1-240.GIF?22-12

Northerly setting up in time for NYD?

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Trending is the buzz word

 

prmslCopenhagen.png

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC 00z operational follows the the ext eps posted last night in dragging the trough into Europe- interesting!!'

Hopefully this is a trend that will gather momentum over the coming days- GFS too attempting to build height to our NE in FI, although it does get pushed back east from a very angry looking Atlantic..

Still from acorns grow :)

sadly it isn't really - the extended eps are not showing the little drop of low anomoly post day 12 this morning, nor is there a small upper trough sinking to our se. Micro changes globally  but changes where they are important to us.  any troughing to our south is purely transient at the moment 

the eps are still below 10% on high mslp over scandi at day 15 whilst gefs show around 30% 

whilst there are still wintry surprises more than possible in the cool zonal outlook, there is little to hang your hat on searching for any deep cold. 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

sadly it isn't really - the extended eps are not showing the little drop of low anomoly post day 12 this morning, nor is there a small upper trough sinking to our se. Micro changes globally  but changes where they are important to us.  any troughing to our south is purely transient at the moment 

Having browsed the extended EPS, they appear to be retrograding the tropospheric PV back over northern Canada in the means? Still we are left with a SWly 500mb mean flow though, but means could smooth out the potential for some members building heights to the northeast in the extended. Will need to see the  clusters later I guess of any credible hints of what 00z GFS op shows in FI.

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 hour ago, TEITS said:

Positive news from me today.

The models are backing away from the very mild SW,lys pumping into Europe for the New Year. A new colder trend is beginning to appear and I shall explain more later.

You mean yesterdays Operation Run from the GFS (Which was an outlier solution) and ECM have changed and no longer show that, and the Ensembles still dont show that.

graphe3_1000_238_25___.gif

Closer to home and looking at the actual output we can see an uptick in (mean) temperatures from yesterdays output but now with 2 groupings.
 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks
  • Weather Preferences: Winter
  • Location: Kirklees, West Yorks

Not much to add atm im on the fence a bit in regards to the models, but next week looks a lot more interesting than this week, which has been totally benign....

How ever my only thing to add is, everything most of time gets pushed south. Could turn into a bit more interest next week imo, but we shall see

Edited by Snowjokes92
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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
6 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

Not much to add atm im on the fence a bit in regards to the models, but next week looks a lot more interesting than this week, which has been totally benign....

How ever my only thing to add is, everything most of time gets pushed south. Could turn into a bit more interest next week imo, but we shall see

I think you will find that the polar front jet actually gets adjusted further north most of the time. The models (especially the GFS) have a bias to overplay the extent of any southerly trajectory. 

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well the much derided EC snow depth charts again show the peak district/pennines and much of ulster/wales with snow on the ground between boxing day to the 28th..

Will be interesting to see if that signal is maintained over the coming 24-28 hours...

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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