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Model output discussion - heading into 2018

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
25 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

No shortage of depressions:

h850t850eu.png

Nevermind 80% of the mood in here, what are the models showing :D

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

As with the GEFS 6z mean, the 12z also has a pronounced cold signal from the 26th through to the end of next week, especially further north with snow likely to feature as well as frosty, icy nights.:santa-emoji:

21_120_500mb.png

21_120_2mtmpmax.png

21_144_500mb.png

21_144_2mtmpmax.png

21_168_500mb.png

21_168_2mtmpmax.png

21_192_2mtmpmax.png

21_192_500mb.png

21_216_2mtmpmax.png

21_216_500mb.png

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ACCOUNT DELETED Enthusiast

ACCOUNT DELETED

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Anyway, an increasingly cold, complex, unsettled spell next week as these Gfs 12z charts show which follows on nicely from the GEFS 6z mean which also indicated something similar..so, some potential for wintry surprises from around the 26th through towards the end of next week with snow, ice and frosts in the forecast during that period for much of the uk, especially further north..hopefully the models can build on this idea and extend it further!:cold-emoji:

12_123_preciptype.png

12_138_preciptype.png

12_171_preciptype.png

12_171_uk2mtmp.png

12_171_ukthickness850.png

12_171_mslp500.png

12_174_preciptype.png

12_186_preciptype.png

12_186_mslp500.png

12_186_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_186_mslp500.png

12_186_ukthickness850.png

12_186_ukthickness.png

12_192_uk2mtmp.png

Personally I take those precipitation type charts with a truck-full of salt. For some places they might be accurate but for my location on the south coast of Wales I find them very inaccurate as well as the snow depth / accumulations chart, that's often way out. 

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

Probably clutching at straws, but the observed MJO today was more amplified than any of the models were going for, and has only propagated half as far east. I remember CPC discussing the potential for it to move more slowly in phases 7-8 than the models predict.

It'd take some going to turn the tables on the La Nina-like atmospheric state development, though!

So... don't go betting the farm on it :nea:.

 

GFS very much on the trough disruption and elongation theme this evening thanks to a better alignment of the flow on the eastern flank of the ridging into Greenland for bringing deep cold air into play (this can act as a bit of a road block to Atlantic systems trying to simply blast their way eastward). 

Of course, UKMO has taken a similar alignment of flow and given it no say on how the trough behaves whatsoever, just to keep things nice and uncertain in terms of snow chances during the festive holidays :pardon::laugh:.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted

Glad to see the moods picked up after the wake like atmosphere in the previous thread!

Can you imagine spending Christmas obsessing over another possible slider low! Oh well if we must!

Still a lot of uncertainty with that and also how quickly the PV ejects east from Canada. It would help if the models could squeeze out a bit more amplitude upstream to hold back that chunk of PV.

Its still going to be difficult to keep the UK on the polar side of the jet with so much energy heading east but tonights outputs so far at least give some interest in the medium term.

 

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, NorthernRab said:

h500slp.png

 

Much better heights over Greenland on the latest GFS!

Wow that actually looks quite good, it looks as though the Azores and pacific high that is just getting into green land could meet up, Doesn't this time but the possibility looks to be there. More runs needed.

Edited by alexisj9
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ArHu3 Rising Star

ArHu3

Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
Posted
20 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Probably clutching at straws, but the observed MJO today was more amplified than any of the models were going for, and has only propagated half as far east. I remember CPC discussing the potential for it to move more slowly in phases 7-8 than the models predict.

It'd take some going to turn the tables on the La Nina-like atmospheric state development, though!

So... don't go betting the farm on it :nea:.

 

GFS very much on the trough disruption and elongation theme this evening thanks to a better alignment of the flow on the eastern flank of the ridging into Greenland for bringing deep cold air into play (this can act as a bit of a road block to Atlantic systems trying to simply blast their way eastward). 

Of course, UKMO has taken a similar alignment of flow and given it no say on how the trough behaves whatsoever, just to keep things nice and uncertain in terms of snow chances during the festive holidays :pardon::laugh:.

Didn't you make a post about two weeks ago overlaying the day old mjo forecast on the current one and all the models had been way off with their forecast. Anyway if it wasn't you someone did

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

HALLO!  HALLO!

gfsnh-10-384.png?12

 

384 hours away. I think we'd be more interested when it's <200 hours away. 

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted
15 minutes ago, knocker said:

I wonder whether my pension will be affected now that I've succumbed and gone over to the dark side.

I do hope not Knocker. I 'd hate to see Sydney go hungry when the snow comes.

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
21 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Wow that actually looks quite good, it looks as though the Azores and pacific high that is just getting into green land could meet up, Doesn't this time but the possibility looks to be there. More runs needed.

And this looks even better

image.thumb.png.f3f148ab7b22fa6fc5aa3cd1e22cf5f1.png

Well it is nearly Christmas....

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high ground birmingham Enthusiast

high ground birmingham

Posted
  • Location: Harborne, Bham 187m asl
  • Location: Harborne, Bham 187m asl
Posted

Maybe everyone has a short memory but the last slider event was shown on the charts to be a Northern England and Scotland event only for the models closer to the time tp drag it a few hundred miles south. It didn't even reach Manchester/Liverpool in the end.

I fully expect the UKMO to be too far North with the track of the lows. If the jet is pushed a bit further south, could be a really interesting period after Xmas. 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

The bottom of the pile CHAVgem...but worth a butchers!

?

navgem-0-132.png

Edited by tight isobar
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Last few frames ecm gonna be interesting.

Can we get that colder 850 hpa into the incoming lps?

And get the track correct?

ECM1-168.gif

Screenshot_2017-12-21-18-37-07.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Don't think EC is going to be up to much unfortunately-

Further north with the 'slider' at 144 and the jet not as far south as GFS...

It still becomes pretty chilly and unsettled with 528 dam thicknesses, some wintry ppn, even a risk of snow, especially higher up and further north..At least it doesn't look mild after monday.

Edited by Frosty.
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Hurricane force winds on that storm looks scary - explosive cyclogenesis is highly likely. Will we be impacted? Certaintly possible with jet not going over top.

AEA69668-6E9E-43FC-8A7F-EE35DA3C239B.thumb.gif.d277fd40fb49fad8187576413f33d119.gif

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Ecm @192..

Pv in a rite old state..

Canadian main lobe dropping deep...

Nearly hanging into the atlantic ocean??!!

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hurricane force winds on that storm looks scary - explosive cyclogenesis is highly likely. Will we be impacted? Certaintly possible with jet not going over top.

AEA69668-6E9E-43FC-8A7F-EE35DA3C239B.thumb.gif.d277fd40fb49fad8187576413f33d119.gif

528 damm thicknesses south of the Midlands,would image high ground Manchester Northwards would see Blizzrd conditions FI though so best file Under bin for now

C.S. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the Ecm 12z next week, becoming rather cold beyond monday and unsettled too with strong winds at times and a wintry mix of rain, sleet, snow, ice and frosts..the snow especially with elevation and further north but overall, a much more interesting weather pattern than this week!!..time for upgrades too..:)

120_thickuk.png

144_thickuk.png

144_mslp850uk.png

168_thickuk.png

168_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp850uk.png

192_thickuk.png

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Nope nothing terribly exciting if your looking for wintry weather,on tonight’s ECM.

Next........

A complete mess, both meteorlogicaly and synoptical.

 

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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted
9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hurricane force winds on that storm looks scary - explosive cyclogenesis is highly likely. Will we be impacted? Certaintly possible with jet not going over top.

AEA69668-6E9E-43FC-8A7F-EE35DA3C239B.thumb.gif.d277fd40fb49fad8187576413f33d119.gif

Is that similar to the feature @knocker referenced in the GFS 6z run?

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

fwiw, ec op has a channel low T120-T144 which dumps on the moors

yep, just checked the experimental snow depth charts and it does indeed!

That aside- if your looking for snow- its not great..

Edited by northwestsnow
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