Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Paul

Model output discussion - heading into 2018

Paul

Please only post model discussion in here. 
For more general chat and banter, moans and ramps, please head to the banter thread.
For general weather chat, please go to the regional threads.

Notice a problem with a post? Please hit the report button.
Thank you!

View the latest forecast models in the Netweather DataCentre

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

After much consideration, I figured it was better to keep the thread title as is, in the hope that we can just get on with chatting about our common interest in the forecasting models in a friendly and reasonable way, especially as Christmas is coming :D 

Want to have a bit of banter or a ramp and moan only loosely related to the models?
The banter thread is for you:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

Want to talk about the weather in your part of the country?
The regional threads are the place for you:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Want to view the model outputs?
You can get all the major ones here on Netweather:

GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR
NetWx-MR
Met-Office
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Snow forecast and precip type
Model Comparison
Global Jet Stream
Stratosphere

Merry Christmas :reindeer-emoji:

Edited by Paul
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Merry Christmas Paul, and to one and all! 

Just gone through the 6z GFS; after several mild and cloudy days until Christmas Day, we go into a few turbulent days, with some shots of cold air over the northern half of the UK, so the chance of wintry showers, maybe a surprise snowfall for a few :)

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

According to the GEFS 6z mean, next week indicates not only an unsettled spell but also a rather cold period for most of next week, cold enough for snow in places, especially further north and with elevation as well as night frosts and ice..so, potentially some wintry weather to look forward to during christmas week!:santa-emoji:

21_150_2mtmpmax.png

21_150_500mb.png

21_174_500mb.png

21_174_2mtmpmax.png

21_198_2mtmpmax.png

21_198_500mb.png

21_222_2mtmpmax.png

21_222_500mb.png

21_246_2mtmpmax.png

  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

According to the GEFS 6z mean, next week indicates not only an unsettled spell but also a rather cold period for most of next week, cold enough for snow in places, especially further north and with elevation as well as night frosts and ice..so, potentially some wintry weather to look forward to during christmas week!:santa-emoji:

 

Yes i was just flicking through those Frosty and some places could see a 5 day cold spell.These are 2m temperatures from the 06gefs

C Scotlandgraphe6_1000___-4.33962264151_55.9919028 C.England graphe6_1000___-1.69811320755_52.2672064

Certainly a colder period creeping up on us between Christmas and New year.Maybe no deep freeze but as i posted yesterday the further north and higher up the better chances of seeing some snowfall.

The jet coming much further south next week as the Azores high is flattened 

viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20171221;tim

Some quite cold polar maritime air being brought further down by a couple of secondary wave depressions with -3/-5C uppers.

Certainly the further south these disturbances track the more chance of snow further away from the usual favoured locations.Looking at those gef 2m temperatures daytime maxs close to freezing in C.Scotland and below 4C for C.England for 4/5 days should maintain some interest for Winter lovers.

Edited by phil nw.
  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 12z ICON is offering a brief northwesterly 26-27th Dec before the next depression moves in. 

Yesterday's 12z was a bit wintrier though.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

gfs-0-138.png?12

Not far from a great chart.... Shame about the other side of the pond

Edited by frosty ground
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, NorthernRab said:

h500slp.png

 

Much better heights over Greenland on the latest GFS!

Yes, and the Azores high is a bit more suppressed to the southwest compared to the 6z.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Surprised no comments yet on the 12z, trying desperately to bring a northerly in, GL heights making a better fist of things. If we get get the jet south enough, look out for a wedge 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And ukmo is slider alert😁!!i swear this thread is so depressing today especially in the morning!!i dont think i have ever seen steve murr been as down as he was this morning in a long time!!hopefully we can continue to see upgrades for next week!

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cold air squeezing south, shame it looks pretty dry though.

gfseu-1-144.thumb.png.a45cba6894b11b96050ef01dc92579cc.pnggfseu-2-144.thumb.png.4a2f6279e7a08cbed04f132a215954e5.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, shaky said:

And ukmo is slider alert😁!!i swear this thread is so depressing today especially in the morning!!i dont think i have ever seen steve murr been as down as he was this morning in a long time!!hopefully we can continue to see upgrades for next week!

The 144 hour UKMO is a peach for Scotland!

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=144&carte=1021

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Big active weather front slider scenario coming up here - can it be the right side of marginal though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12z making a fool of those writing off winter, sliders galore. Northern areas would be favoured, of course. Scotland looks on gleefully, not that they probably want it they have enough 😂  greedy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Few tweaks and it is a peach for the the whole of england!!

It is a good start to the afternoon output. I will take that for now. :)

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not three bad, I guess...

h850t850eu.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Cold air squeezing south, shame it looks pretty dry though.

gfseu-1-144.thumb.png.a45cba6894b11b96050ef01dc92579cc.pnggfseu-2-144.thumb.png.4a2f6279e7a08cbed04f132a215954e5.png

Yes 

Rather dry and cold/cool than wet and mild

C.S

Edited by cheshire snow
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And...some potential.

h850t850eu.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Yes 

Rather dry and cold/cool than wet and mild

C.S

Fast forward a bit and it is snow for all - Midlands North this time nxt week 

 

 

935BA324-60BF-4CB2-A82B-2AC6DA195505.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

h500slp.png

 

Much better heights over Greenland on the latest GFS!

Gem brings it in @144-northerly.

there is plenty to be looking out for in terms of a colder 'picture' from around boxing day/26/30 dec.

and even minor tweaks could throw a few suprises into the mix!!!

gem-0-144.png

Edited by tight isobar
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-5-162.png?12

Southerly tracking Jet but look towards the North Of Scandinavia.... East to west movement,

Good spot regarding north of Scandinavia. What's the outcome on that for us?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe there could be 1 or 2 surprise snowfalls from this setup in about a weeks time???

gfseu-2-168.thumb.png.fe45badb0c11a72036309b78f2175a3d.pnggfseu-2-174.thumb.png.3ee3e5afc316cc3fbac1e315a2626b0c.png

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Big active weather front slider scenario coming up here - can it be the right side of marginal though.

YES

prectypeuktopo.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×