2018 Hopes & Predictions

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Now we have shifted away from EL NINO and are back into more of normal Pacific SST and bearing in mind sunspot activity is reaching its lowest, what are crystal balls showing for weather in 2018?.

JAN                Mild and dry becoming colder and snowy later on

FEB             Very spring like month, warmer than average. Temps hitting record highs of 20C in SE.

MAR            Becoming blocked and cold with heavy snowfall reaching low levels, very spring like later on and warm.

APR             Dry month, warmer then average

MAY             Dry and warm, lengthy spell of warmth at the end of the month

JUN              Continuation of the Dry and warm theme from May, with some blowtorch days but any heatwave will fail to materialise, becoming stormy

JUL   & AUG         July wlll start stormy and cold but turn out will be best summer in a while, with some washout days but some glorious sunshine days. July will have above average sunshine

SEP             Low pressure will take charge, bringing in wet and windy month

OCT             Autumnal month wet and windy, Halloween will see some significant snowfall

NOV            Cold and blocked similar to March, becoming mild and dry from mid month.

DEC            Dry and mild month, and a surprise white Christmas. The year will end with below average rainfall year and a warmer than average year.

[Lettucing Gutted]

2018 will be a very horrible year and the hottest on record at 15.5C CET.  The Globe will average 16C making it the hottest year on record Globally.  This summer the polar jet reaches the Artic, dies and leaves a "polar weakstream" swirling around a dying Greenland PV.  The subtropical jet also reaches the Artic and replaces the dead polar jet.  A main "subtropical weakstream" swirls around the North Pole whilst an even weaker "subtropical weakstream" merges with the last "polar weakstream" swirling around the dying Greenland PV.  The African Monsoon Trough finally jumps the Sahara and Mediterranean into Europe and affects Britain and Europe from the 1000mb to the 500mb level with an outflow ridge on top to form the British Monsoon system.  The British Monsoon forms a monster Mid-Atlantic Ridge and a monster Bartlett Ridge sending heatwaves to obliterate the last of the Artic Ice.  Britain always remains mild if not very mild in winter and always remains hot if not very hot in the other seasons but swings from flood to drought so many times you just can't keep up!  Britain gets monster floods from the interaction of the British Monsoon with Spanish Plumes which also create Supercell Thunderstorms and F5 Twisters.  However Britain also gets monster droughts when ex-hurricanes and/or rare "weakstream" troughs send the monster Mid-Atlantic Ridges toppling over Britain and merging into the monster Bartlett Ridges.  I am also expecting an explosive "Methane Burp" to occur in 2018 as the warming oceans destabilise Methane Hydrates.  Combined with yet more water vapour from the warming oceans, this Methane Burp will worsen global warming more than ever this year.

January the warmest on record 9.5C

February the warmest on record 10C

March the warmest on record 12C

April the warmest on record 14C

May the warmest on record 17.5C

June the warmest on record 20.5C

July the warmest on record 22C

August the warmest on record 21.5C

September the warmest on record 19C

October the warmest on record 15.5C

November the warmest on record 13C

December the warmest on record 12C

2018 will be the Bob Beamon Year of CET Warming.

Edited December 21, 2017 by Lettucing Gutted

[Don]

3 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

2018 will be a very horrible year and the hottest on record at 15.5C CET.  The Globe will average 16C making it the hottest year on record Globally.  This summer the polar jet reaches the Artic, dies and leaves a "polar weakstream" swirling around a dying Greenland PV.  The subtropical jet also reaches the Artic and replaces the dead polar jet.  A main "subtropical weakstream" swirls around the North Pole whilst an even weaker "subtropical weakstream" merges with the last "polar weakstream" swirling around the dying Greenland PV.  The African Monsoon Trough finally jumps the Sahara and Mediterranean into Europe and affects Britain and Europe from the 1000mb to the 500mb level with an outflow ridge on top to form the British Monsoon system.  The British Monsoon forms a monster Mid-Atlantic Ridge and a monster Bartlett Ridge sending heatwaves to obliterate the last of the Artic Ice.  Britain always remains mild if not very mild in winter and always remains hot if not very hot in the other seasons but swings from flood to drought so many times you just can't keep up!  Britain gets monster floods from the interaction of the British Monsoon with Spanish Plumes which also create Supercell Thunderstorms and F5 Twisters.  However Britain also gets monster droughts when ex-hurricanes and/or rare "weakstream" troughs send the monster Mid-Atlantic Ridges toppling over Britain and merging into the monster Bartlett Ridges.  I am also expecting an explosive "Methane Burp" to occur in 2018 as the warming oceans destabilise Methane Hydrates.  Combined with yet more water vapour from the warming oceans, this Methane Burp will worsen global warming more than ever this year.

January the warmest on record 9.5C

February the warmest on record 10C

March the warmest on record 12C

April the warmest on record 14C

May the warmest on record 17.5C

June the warmest on record 20.5C

July the warmest on record 22C

August the warmest on record 21.5C

September the warmest on record 19C

October the warmest on record 15.5C

November the warmest on record 13C

December the warmest on record 12C

2018 will be the Bob Beamon Year of CET Warming.

We are all doomed in 2018........

[Weather-history]

The curse of a summer ending in "8"

Will 2018 break a long run of summers ending in "8" being mediocre?

January: mixture of mild and cold spells with some snow and frost. Not especially wet overall.

February: I think it is only a matter of time before we have a significantly cold February and I think it could be this time round. Overall cold and frosty with some snow, coldest February since 1991 and sub 2C for CET. Winds frequently with a northerly component.

March: cool and fairly unsettled.

April: have been some wintry Aprils ending in "8" in recent times. I don't think this will be one. Average month overall. 

May: a pretty decent month, dry overall with the first real warm spell of the year. Sunnier than average.

June: a fairly showery month, close to average temperatures.

July: a below par month, unsettled with one hot spell possibly with thunder.

August: average month rainfall wise and temperatures.

September: a fairly wet cool month.

October: some anticyclonic spells, a quiet month.

November: a cooler than average month, some frosts and an early season snowfall for some.

December: a fairly cold month with some frosts and some snowfalls. One or two mild intervals.

[LetItSnow!]

It's interesting to see mention of the '8 ending year curse' when it comes to summer. In older times we actually saw some pretty decent summers (or at least summer months). 1798, 1808 (very hot July), 1818 (June and July both pretty hot), 1858 (exceptionally warm June, up there with 1976) and 1868 where the warmth lasted through all three months (and preceded the mildest winter ever recorded!). Something happened from 1908 onwards and all the 20th century summers ending in 8 were very poor, I think the best of them was probably 1918 but even this wasn't that great. Anyway, I've gone on quite a tangent there but my point is, do I think 2018 will break the cycle? Personally, no.

I did some predictions back in August, but if you don't mind I think I'll do my final thoughts here.

January: A little bit colder than normal. Some decent cold attempts early and late, but spoiled by mild/very mild spell around mid-month, though never overly stormy, just mild and fine. 3.5-4.0°C,rainfall around 70-80mm.

February: A very cold and dry month. Possibly short-lived mild spell early or late, but very cold middle with heavy snow at times, then high pressure building with severely low temperatures recorded by night. Around the 21st we see one of the coldest days of the 21st century. -1.0-0.5+°, rainfall around 30-40mm.

March: A very wet and unsettled month, with average temperatures. Possibly very dull. Milder by night than day. 6.0-6.5°C, rainfall around 100-120mm.

April: I've had a feeling we're due for a properly cold April, so that's what I'll go for. Plenty of blocking with northerly and easterly winds and snow at times. Exceptionally cold mid-month. 4.5-5.5°C, rainfall around 55-75mm.

May: Atlantic dominated, very wet, and also dull. Similar to May, 1968. 9.5-10.5°C, with rainfall around 100-115mm.

June: Possibly quite cold, especially in the first-half, but high pressure dominated so quite dry and sunny. A comfortable month. 12.5-13.0°C, with rainfall around 25-40mm.

July: A classically poor British summer month; cold, wet, but the odd hot day can't be ruled out. 14.5-15.5°C, rainfall around 110-130mm.

August: Things improving somewhat, with some fine and dry weather, but certainly no Aug, 1995. 16.0-16.5°C, rainfall around 55-70mm.

September: An quite settled month. Sunny and dry at times with high pressure close by. 14.0-14.5°C, rainfall around 40-60mm.

October: Our coldest October for quite some time, possibly an east/west split with rainfall with the east quite wet and the west quite dry. 9.0-10.0°C, rainfall 70-90mm.

November: Unsettled with mild and cold snaps at times. Possibly some damaging gales at some point. 6.0-6.5°C, rainfall around 70-100mm.

December: Quite an average month, quite westerly but some cold snaps at times. Nothing overtly mild. 4.0-4.5°C, rainfall around 90-100mm.

[stainesbloke]

My hopes for 2018 are a bucking of the trends in recent years and receiving above average sunshine levels for most of spring and summer. No need for extreme heatwaves but some warm weather with thunderstorms would be grand. A snowy spell later in January would also be good. Hopefully no major winter wind storms and also not much windy weather in the warmer months.