January 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (with optional precip contest)

[damianslaw]

Not beyond the realms of possibility may be about to see our coldest January for 8 years, 3.4 degrees or below would do it, but equally every chance we will see only our coldest for 5 years - 3.6 degrees or above would do it. My hunch is a final finish somewhere in the 3s bottom or top end even stevens at this stage. A blast of westerly/southwesterlies later in the month would push us comfortably into the 4s though. However. I'm not expecting this, I suspect the period 18-24 Jan will return some significantly below average CET values which will do enough damage to prevent anything but a slightly above average month at best.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 3.8C -0.7C below normal no change in rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

4.6 to the 13th

1.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.9c here to the 13th, 0.4c above the 1981-2010 average.

Slightly below ave temps forecast this week but nothing special with regards to cold temps.

[Summer Sun]

4.7 to the 14th

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's how the 12z GFS sees the CET over the next while.

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

4.8C to the 15th... +0.5    (6.6: +2.0)
4.7C to the 16th... +0.3    (3.1: -1.7)
4.7C to the 17th... +0.3    (4.5: -0.1)
4.7C to the 18th... +0.3    (4.0: -0.5)
4.5C to the 19th... +0.1    (1.9: -3.2)
4.4C to the 20th... +0.0    (2.4: -2.7)
4.3C to the 21st... -0.2    (2.6: -2.5)
4.3C to the 22nd... -0.1    (3.6: -0.8)
4.4C to the 23rd... +0.1    (7.5: +3.2)
4.6C to the 24th... +0.2    (7.7: +3.3)

Anything from 3C to 6C is in with a shot at this stage. 

[Summer Sun]

4.8 to the 15th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[Chris.R]

4.4°C here, 0.4°C below the 1981-2010 average. 

Edited January 16, 2018 by Chris.R

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 3.9C -0.6C below normal. Rainfall 56.7mm 70% of normal

[Summer Sun]

4.8 to the 16th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 3.7C -0.8C below normal, Rainfall 71.9mm 88.8% of average. GFS showing blow torch south westerlies coming in so large rises Sunday onward's.

 

[Summer Sun]

4.9 to the 17th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[Man With Beard]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

4.9 to the 17th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

Expecting final CET to be over 5C now

[Summer Sun]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Expecting final CET to be over 5C now

Probably going to be the 2nd month in a row that's had some snow and quite low temps to finish above average

Next weeks warm-up should ensure it doesn't finish below average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 3.7C -0.7 below normal. Rainfall 87.8mm  108.4% of normal

[reef]

It's looking more and more like a mild month here, as we're currently on 4.8C (+0.5C) to the 18th and yet to record an air frost in January!

The 12z GFS would see us on 5.7C by the end of the month, which would make it the mildest since 2008.

[Summer Sun]

4.9 to the 18th

1.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

4.8C to the 19th... +0.3    (3.0: -2.1)
4.7C to the 20th... +0.2    (2.5: -2.6)
4.7C to the 21st... +0.2    (6.6: +1.5)
4.9C to the 22nd... +0.5    (7.0: +2.6)
5.0C to the 23rd... +0.7    (8.5: +4.2)
5.3C to the 24th... +0.9    (10.9: +6.5) [Daily Record High = 10.6C (1782)]
5.3C to the 25th... +1.2    (6.3: +2.2)
5.3C to the 26th... +1.2    (5.2: +1.2)
5.3C to the 27th... +1.1    (6.5: +2.3)
5.5C to the 28th... +1.2    (9.0: +4.7) [Daily Record High = 9.8C (1944)]

A big warm up on the cards after the weekend, with a chance of a few daily records coming under threat. A below average month now looking very unlikely.
At this stage, a finish of between 4.6C and 6.1C before corrections, and 4.2C to 6.2C after corrections in most likely.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)

4.8C to the 19th... +0.3    (3.0: -2.1)
4.7C to the 20th... +0.2    (2.5: -2.6)
4.7C to the 21st... +0.2    (6.6: +1.5)
4.9C to the 22nd... +0.5    (7.0: +2.6)
5.0C to the 23rd... +0.7    (8.5: +4.2)
5.3C to the 24th... +0.9    (10.9: +6.5) [Daily Record High = 10.6C (1782)]
5.3C to the 25th... +1.2    (6.3: +2.2)
5.3C to the 26th... +1.2    (5.2: +1.2)
5.3C to the 27th... +1.1    (6.5: +2.3)
5.5C to the 28th... +1.2    (9.0: +4.7) [Daily Record High = 9.8C (1944)]

A big warm up on the cards after the weekend, with a chance of a few daily records coming under threat. A below average month now looking very unlikely.
At this stage, a finish of between 4.6C and 6.1C before corrections, and 4.2C to 6.2C after corrections in most likely.

How much milder than expected would what's left of the month have to be for my entry to be correct?

[BornFromTheVoid]

2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

How much milder than expected would what's left of the month have to be for my entry to be correct?

Assuming the forecast is somewhat correct to the 24th and there's no downward correction at the end of the month, to reach 6.7C the 25th to 31st would have to break records essentially every day, averaging over 11.4C in the process.
These days, I wouldn't even rule that out completely - December 2015 averaged 11.5C between the 15th and 21st!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Assuming the forecast is somewhat correct to the 24th and there's no downward correction at the end of the month, to reach 6.7C the 25th to 31st would have to break records essentially every day, averaging over 11.4C in the process.
These days, I wouldn't even rule that out completely - December 2015 averaged 11.5C between the 15th and 21st!

Quite nice that - win the competition and  spring arriving early!

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 3.6C -0.8C below normal. Rainfall 90.8mm 112.1% of normal. We should pass 100mm which a few years ago was fairly rare but is more common the last few years since 2007.

[Summer Sun]

4.8 to the 19th

1.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[The PIT]

No change in Sunny Sheffield still 3.6C rainfall 91.3mm 112.7% above average.

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.6 here to the 19th, 0.1c above the 1981-2010 average.