January 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (with optional precip contest)

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.5c here to the 8th, bang on the 1981-2010 average.

5 day forecast shows slightly below average temps

[Summer Sun]

3.9 to the 7th

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

[BornFromTheVoid]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

3.9 to the 7th

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Those mean values aren't accurate. The missing max for the 3rd and minimum for the 4th are throwing them way out. The CET for the 7th is closer to 5.2C, and the 8th about 4.7C. 

Anywho, not much change in the near term from the 06z GFS, both yesterday and today had the CET at about 4.3C to the 14th (+5 days out). After that, today's run is much cooler, with the CET dropping a little further to the 18th (as opposed to increasing a little yesterday).

[Summer Sun]

1 hour ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Those mean values aren't accurate. The missing max for the 3rd and minimum for the 4th are throwing them way out. The CET for the 7th is closer to 5.2C, and the 8th about 4.7C. 

Anywho, not much change in the near term from the 06z GFS, both yesterday and today had the CET at about 4.3C to the 14th (+5 days out). After that, today's run is much cooler, with the CET dropping a little further to the 18th (as opposed to increasing a little yesterday).

Yes Pershore Horticulture college data is missing which is why it is running 2 days behind taking them ages to update it

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 3.7C -0.8C below average. Rainfall 25.5mm 31.5% of average

[Summer Sun]

4.6 to the 9th

1.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

[BornFromTheVoid]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

4.6 to the 9th

1.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.4 to the 2nd & 3rd

Hi SS. Now that the missing data has been added, the high for the month is 6.8C to the 4th.

[Summer Sun]

2 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Hi SS. Now that the missing data has been added, the high for the month is 6.8C to the 4th.

Wonder why Hadley still has it at 4.6

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Wonder why Hadley still has it at 4.6

 

The 4.6C to the 9th is accurate now. However, the first 4 days were 5.7C, 6.9C, 7.0C and 7.7C, which averaged 6.8C to the 4th, so that's the high for the month so far.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 3.3C -1.2C below normal. Rainfall 27mm 33.3% of normal

[Chris.R]

4.3°C here, 0.4°C below the 1981-2010 average. 

[Roger J Smith]

Can't see much variation in the CET on the 12z GFS run, it would probably slump down to around 4 or the high 3's by end of next week, then stay around there until 25th-26th when (with much less reliability) it would take an upward jog from two days near 9 or 10 C. Even if that happened the last maps have the look of another reload for the colder maritime flow, so at this very early stage I would say 3.5 to 4.5 looks like the best zone if this model is anywhere near correct. The 10-day ECM shows nothing to change my mind on that part. It's a rather cold form of zonality in general, if there is to be deeper cold this winter I suspect it would have to come in the first half of February now. 

[damianslaw]

Rather early to be speculating with any confidence finishing value for the month, but the outlook for the foreseeable suggest very average CET values predominating nothing overly mild or cold on offer, indeed very little variation. The north though looks preety cold next week. We might be about to see a very average Dec and Jan, last time this happened was Dec 2012 / Jan 2013. 

[Summer Sun]

4.7 to the 10th

1.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[NorthYorksWeather]

3.6c here to the 10th, 0.1c above the 1981-2010 average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up 3.4C -1.1C below normal. Rainfall 28.4mm 35.1% of normal

[damianslaw]

Next week looking colder than perhaps expected yesterday, so we could go below average by next weekend.

[DAVID SNOW]

Perhaps too early to speculate, but a final number of 3.7 may not be far off.

[Chris.R]

4.2°C here to the 11th, 0.5°C below the 1981-2010 average. Looking around average next week from a Maritime sauce so should be above the cet again by this time next week unfortunately. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Chris.R

[Summer Sun]

4.6 to the 11th

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

[Man With Beard]

39 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

4.6 to the 11th

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th

I'm guessing 4C by the 20th.

If a long spell of westerlies can be avoided in the last 10 days, this may be a below average winter month. Gold dust!

[BornFromTheVoid]

here's how the CET looks according to the 06z GFS

Rolling CET... Anomaly to 81-10 rolling avg (Daily Avg: Anomaly to 81-10 daily avg)
4.5C to the 12th... 0.2    (4.0:  -0.4)       
4.5C to the 13th... 0.2    (4.4:  +0.6)       
4.5C to the 14th... 0.2    (4.5:  +0.1)       
4.6C to the 15th... 0.3    (5.9:  +1.3)       
4.5C to the 16th... 0.1    (2.6:  -2.1)       
4.4C to the 17th... 0.0    (2.2:  -2.1)       
4.1C to the 18th... -0.3    (0.4:  -1.9)       
4.0C to the 19th... -0.5    (0.9:  -2.9)       
3.8C to the 20th... -0.7    (-0.2:  -4.4)       
3.5C to the 21st... -1.0    (-1.1:  -5.6)

A big cool down after mid month looks likely now, carrying the CET below average.

Edited January 12, 2018 by BornFromTheVoid

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 3.6C -0.9C below normal. Rainfall at 30.1mm 37.2% of average.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield just outside the cet zone residing at 3.7C -0.8C below normal. No change in rainfall.

[Summer Sun]

4.5 to the 12th

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 6.8 to the 4th