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January 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (with optional precip contest)


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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

2.4 with 97mm of percipitation

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

4.7c for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

 2.2°C and 48.2 mm please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

55 on time entries in the temperature forecast portion, 4.6 the median value.

40 entries so far in the EWP (precip) contest, 92.7 mm the median value.

Rather than posting these tables now, I will hold on for three days of late entries and post then. 

To save you a long look through the temperature forecasts, these values have not yet been used:

7.0 to 9.4

6.3, 6.4 and 6.6

5.5 to 5.8 and 6.0

(then all from 3.9 to 5.4 have one or more entries)

3,0, 3.5, 3.8

2.0, 2.1, 2.6 and everything below 2.0 except -3.3

 

Happy New Year  to everyone (must wait eight hours for that here) 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

A little into 1 Jan - meant to do it this morn but NYD preparations stole my time - but no extra models runs have been seen versus anyone before midnight so hopefully this is still effectively a 31 Dec entry...? 

If so I’ll go for 4.9*C, 114 mm, thanks.

Happy New Year to all :)

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I will count anything before 0300h as part of previous day in the precip contest, so you're okay there, but I think by long-standing tradition the grace period in the temperature forecast contest is zero minutes, however, the late penalty is pretty gentle for the first day, you might drop a couple of positions for that at worst. So just a reminder to all, this contest is open until end of the 3rd of January with increasing late penalties each day. 

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Posted
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: bright & frosty/snowy; summer: hot and sunny.
  • Location: Comrie, Perthshire, Bonnie Scotland

5.3C and 102mm for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl

3.5C and 76 mms please

MIA

Edited by Midlands Ice Age
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Oops, a bit late.

5.0C and 105mm for me, thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Totally forgot again.

Will the cold win out if so there will be a lot wrong..

Lets say 3.3c and 85mm.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

 

1981-2010 CET Daily averages for January, with extremes (1772-2017) and Dalton comparison

DATE __ MAX (year) _______ MIN (year) _____ CET mean 1981-2010 CET cum  _ 1795-1824 mean

01 Jan ... 10.8 (1851) ... ... ... ... -5.9 (1820) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.1
02 Jan ... 10.4 (1948) ... ... ... ... -6.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.2
03 Jan ... 11.6 (1932) ... ... ... ... -7.7 (1795) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.8
04 Jan ... 10.5 (1948) ... ... ... ... -9.3 (1867) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.1
05 Jan ... 11.4 (1957) ... ... ... ... -6.5 (1789) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5

06 Jan ... 10.3 (1898) ... ... ... ... -6.9 (1894) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.9
07 Jan ... 10.3 (1890) ... ... ... ... -7.7 (1841) ... ... ... ... ... 3.4 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.4
08 Jan ..... 9.9 (1848) ... ... ... ... -9.2 (1841) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5
09 Jan ... 10.7 (1998) ... ... ... ... -5.0 (1841) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.6
10 Jan ... 11.1 (1921) ... ... ... ... -6.7 (1814) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5

11 Jan ... 10.1 (1990) ... ... ... ... -5.5 (1838) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.4
12 Jan ..... 9.9 (1976, 2007) ..... -7.7 (1987) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.9
13 Jan ... 10.0 (1796, 1873) ..... -6.6 (1987) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.3
14 Jan ... 10.2 (2011) ... ... ... ... -7.6 (1982) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.7
15 Jan ... 10.3 (1804) ... ... ... ... -8.5 (1820) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.7

16 Jan ... 10.8 (1990) ... ... ... ... -7.7 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.0
17 Jan ... 10.2 (1908) ... ... ... ... -6.2 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.4
18 Jan ... 10.0 (1828) ... ... ... ... -6.1 (1891) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5
19 Jan ... 11.1 (1930) ... ... ... ... -8.9 (1823) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.0
20 Jan ... 11.2 (2008) .. ... ... .., -11.9 (1838) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.0

21 Jan ... 10.8 (1796, 1898)...... -8.1 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.0
22 Jan ... 10.3 (1878) ... ... ... ... -6.4 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5
23 Jan ... 11.6 (1834) ... ... ... ... -8.4 (1963) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.3
24 Jan ... 10.6 (1782) ... ... ... ... -8.2 (1963) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.6
25 Jan ... 11.6 (2016) ... ... ... ... -8.9 (1795) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.4

25  ^^ was 11.4 (1846)
27 vv was 10.4 (2003)

26 Jan ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... ... ... -7.6 (1945) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.9
27 Jan ... 10.5 (2016) ... ... ... ... -6.5 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.7
28 Jan ..... 9.8 (1944) ... ... ... ... -6.3 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.3
29 Jan ... 10.4 (1854) ... ... ... ... -6.8 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.0
30 Jan ... 10.2 (2000) ... ... ... ... -7.5 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.9
31 Jan ... 10.9 (1868) ... ... ... ... -7.2 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.4

__________________________________________________________________

Just for fun I have added the 30-year mean of 1795-1824 (far right of table) to show how the Dalton did January.

Interesting relative mild spell 19th to 21st (5.1 C all three days) in 1981-2010 data. There is a similar rise in values in the colder "Dalton" period (which had a January mean of 2.6 C).

 

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