January 2018 C.E.T. forecasts (with optional precip contest)

[Roger J Smith]

All the usual temperature information is available in the first table below. Then you can find precip information for our new optional precipitation forecast contest. More info available on that back in the opening post of the DEC 2017 thread. Enter one or both contests in this thread. ...

 

January CET averages and extremes 

(including all CET values since 1981) 

 

11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834 and 25th, 2016)

8.0 ..
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5 ... warmest January (1916)
7.4
7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
7.2
7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834)

7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1921 (2007)
6.9 ... sixth warmest (1733)
6.8 ... seventh warmest (1975 CET, followed joint warmest Dec)
6.7 ... eighth warmest (1983)
6.6 ... tied ninth warmest (1898, 2008)
6.5 ... tied eleventh warmest (1686, 1884, 1990)
6.4 ... tied fourteenth warmest (1736, 1875)
6.3 ... tied sixteenth warmest (1846, 1932)
6.2 ... eighteenth warmest (1737)
6.1 ... nineteenth warmest (1989)

6.0 ... three tied for 20th warmest (1682, 1708, 2005)
5.9 ... four tied for 23rd warmest (1759, 1974, 1976, 1993)
5.8 ... three tied for 27th warmest (1804, 1866, 1944)
5.7 .. 2014 (tied with 1890, 1938 as 30th warmest)
5.6 ..
5.5 .. 1999, 2002
5.4 .. 2012, 2016
5.3 .. 1988, 1994

5.2 .. 1998, 2004
5.1 ..

5.0 ..
4.9 .. 1981, 2000
4.8 .. 1995

4.7 .. --- average 1988-2017 --- 
4.6 .. --- average 2001-17, 1991-2017, and 1986-2015 and 1987-2016 ---

4.5 .. 2003
4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 ----- and also 2015

... ... ... -- also average 1898-1927 and 1910-1939 -- (warmth not reached again until 1979 to 2008)
4.3 .. 1996, 2006
4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 -----
4.1 ..

4.0 .. 2017
3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ----
3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 ----- and also 1984
3.7 .. 1992, 2011
3.6 ...
3.5 .. 1986, 2013
3.4 ..
3.3 .. --- average 1659-2017 ----- (3.26 is the exact figure) and also 1991
3.2 .. 2001

3.1 .. --- average 1939-1968 --- (lowest 30-year average since 1881-1910)

3.0 ... --- average 1801-1900 ---- and also 2009
2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ----
2.8 ..
2.7
2.6 ... --- average 1659-1700 ---- and also 1982
2.5 .. 1997
2.4 .. --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained)
2.3 ..

2.2 ..
2.1 ...

2.0 ... --- average 1766 to 1795 --- coldest 30-year average
1.9 ..
1.8 ..
1.7 ...
1.6 ...
1.5 ...
1.4 ... coldest past 28 yrs (2010) -- tied 64th coldest with 1744
1.3 ...
1.2 ...
1.1 ..

1.0 ...
0.9 ...
0.8 ... coldest past 31 yrs (1985, 1987) -- tied joint 41st coldest with 1768.
0.7 ...
0.6 ...
0.5 ...
0.4 ...
0.3 ...
0.2 ...
0.1 ...

0.0 ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698)
-0.1 ... twentieth coldest (1823)
-0.2 ... nineteenth coldest (1830)
-0.3 ... eighteenth coldest (1820)
-0.4 ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979)
-0.5
-0.6 ... sixteenth coldest (1784)
-0.7 ... fifteenth coldest (1879)
-0.8 ... fourteenth coldest (1763)
-0.9 ... thirteenth coldest (1780)

-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9

-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963)
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean in past 149 yrs (23rd, 1963)

      -- this was the coldest day in any month and in any Jan since -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867)

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter the temperature forecast contest by end of day Sunday, 31 December (2017) or with increasing time penalties on the first three days of January 2018. 

 

(Optional) Precip forecast contest

-- Predict the January precipitation (snowfall liquid equivalent so for every 10 cm of snow, 10 mm precip on average), the standard we are using for this contest is the England and Wales Precip (EWP) and here are the averages and extremes...

184.6 .. wettest January (2014)

176.8 .. 2nd wettest Jan (1948)

 97.9 .. --- average 1988-2017 ---

 93.0 .. --- average 1981-2010 ---

 16.5 .. driest January in recent past (1997) -- 5th driest since these records started in 1766

 15.3 .. second driest January on record (1779)

 04.4 .. driest January (1766)

Notes: The recent past has seen several quite wet months besides 2014, 1988 (169.0 mm) was third wettest, 1995 (162.6 mm) was fourth wettest, and 2016 (149.5 mm) was 8th wettest. Last year was a slightly drier than average 79.6 mm and 2015 was 101.0 mm. Dry Januaries have been rare in recent decades. Aside from 1997, the only cases since 1981 to record 40 mm or less include 1987 with 33.9 mm, and 2006 with 31.9 mm. 

To enter the precip contest, forecast the England and Wales precip for Jan 2018, to nearest mm (and tenth if desired). You can add this to your temperature forecast or place it in a separate post. 

Scoring was explained last month, basically the closest forecast scores 10.0 minus up to 0.5 for difference in rank in groups of ten, then all the rest are scored off a sliding scale. Late penalties are 0.2 per day. 

Good luck ... link to precip data follows

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/ranked_monthly/HadEWP_ranked_mly.txt

 

[Weather26]

To get the ball rolling for 2018 4.4C

[Summer Sun]

Another year almost here ??

4.7 for me please

[Shanice]

I Predict 6.9°C for January 2018.

[NorthYorksWeather]

5.9c and 101mm, thanks

[LetItSnow!]

I feel like this month will be either very cold or very mild, no inbetween. So... I am going to go with -3.3. 

Edited December 20, 2017 by LetItSnow!

[Lettucing Gutted]

9.5C    Last sub -3.0C January in 1795.  Last sub -2.0C and sub -1.0C January in 1963.  Last sub 0C January in 1979.  Last sub 1C January in 1987.  Last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C January in 2010.

[SteveB]

I'll go for 5.4c & 110mm please

[alexisj9]

4.0 ppn 119mm please.

Edited December 21, 2017 by alexisj9

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6.2C, many names storms, wet and windy, zonal train full pelt, 

[NeilN]

3.1c

[Dami]

4.8c and 78mm ppn.

Merry christmas

[summer blizzard]

Despite the negativity in the model thread I still retain confidence that January should deliver our most severe spell of winter weather since Jan 13/March 13 which would prompt a prediction of ~2.4C however my usual method of CET prediction calls for another average month.

I'll stick with 4.4C.

[Lettucing Gutted]

I forgot my precipitation forecast.  200mm

[simshady]

3.7c and 98mm please

[DAVID SNOW]

3 minutes ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

I forgot my precipitation forecast.  200mm

Only 200mm, you disappoint me craig....

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

I’ll go for -0.3c and 153mm please. ❄️❄️❄️

Edited December 22, 2017 by prolongedSnowLover

[Relativistic]

How about 2.9C, and 70mm.

[Methuselah]

4.7C and 66mm of rain, please...

[JeffC]

I'll go for 3.3C please and 123mmm rain

[Weather26]

85mm Rain for this month please since i forgot put this on my temperature guess

Edited December 22, 2017 by Weather26

[pegg24]

5.1 c 89 mm please

[Dancerwithwings]

4.1C Cheers

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Can I change mine to 6.5C please ? ?

Edited December 23, 2017 by prolongedSnowLover

[virtualsphere]

6.1C and 148mm please.