North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Wardlegacy]

29 minutes ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

I still don’t understand how it will snow with uppers of -1 to -2

Because snow isn’t that simple and relies on more than one parameter as is so often shown. Some of our heaviest falls have come from such uppers 

[Weather-history]

34 minutes ago, karyo said:

Not a good 12z GFS, it pushes the band east a bit faster. Less wintry for the south of the region but still great for the north.

The Aprege still looks fine but I have a feeling it may be overdoing the wintriness.

GFS was absolute useless, Boxing Day. Most ensembles only hours before had my location down for snow cover.

[Day 10]

On the other hand the Hirlam wants snow

Always thought this was the best model

[Chris.R]

 Already 1°C lower than forecast for this time which is a good sign for later given that the wind is still on-shore. I expect a sharp drop in temperatures to begin, starting in the south from about 8 PM. My marker is still 35°F and below for snow by the time the precipitation arrives. 

[SP1986]

The map I made would not necessarily show these areas will just have snow and nothing else.. more that the areas highlighted may see snow which may last anything from 10 minutes to 10 hours.. however I'm pretty sure for most it will be a snow to rain scenario anyway. I think the GFS is too keen too push it away quickly with this one (I don't agree with it).. I'd take the Met-office warning area as a good guide for settling snow.

Ps I think Wigan and Warrington will have some wet snow, leaving slushy deposits.

 

Edited December 28, 2017 by SP1986

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

5 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

GFS still wanting to blast the system through sharpish.

Gfs said we would get a right pasting last 2 sliders!

[itsnowjoke]

When is this event non event meant to start approximately 

[SP1986]

Just now, itsnowjoke said:

When is this event non event meant to start approximately 

when you are asleep.. approx, about 4am for you

[itsnowjoke]

1 minute ago, SP1986 said:

when you are asleep.. approx, about 4am for you

Really why is it always at night but cheers anyway 

[Alexis]

14 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

GFS still wanting to blast the system through sharpish.

Horrible low res charts. Not much use I’d say. Just look at the difference between these and HIRLAM high res chart above (not the snow, just the areas of precipitation)

Edited December 28, 2017 by Alexis

[Day 10]

Interesting from the Arpege! Even if it is short lived.

 

[Joe Bloggs]

41 minutes ago, karyo said:

Not a good 12z GFS, it pushes the band east a bit faster. Less wintry for the south of the region but still great for the north.

The Aprege still looks fine but I have a feeling it may be overdoing the wintriness.

12z Arpege is very messy, and I think a bit less wintry than previous runs for the Manchester area. I’m sure the white scaling covered the entire region in previous output, but not on the 12z.

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/arpegeuk-1-18-0.png?28-17

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/arpegeuk-1-19-0.png?28-17

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpege/arpegeuk-1-20-0.png?28-17

Yes there’s a wintry mix across much of the region (snow for the east and high ground), but for Manchester there are blobs of rain pretty much throughout.

I expect rain and sleet here, certainly by the time I commute to work just before 9. Any snow I see falling will be a bonus. 

 

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Horrible low res charts. Not much use I’d say. Just look at the difference between these and HIRLAM high res chart above (not the snow, just the areas of precipitation)

I know and fully agree, just posting what each one is now showing.

[severe snowstorm]

Hi all. First post, although been a (lurking) member for several years. Looks like an interesting snow event, although likely transient. Latest metoffice forecast for north west suggests it will move through quite quickly.

 

 

 

[Deep Snow please]

So I tuned out of this entire event after the national coverage of the complete non-event in my area yesterday. I've just looked out the window and there's very wet moderate snowfall sticking to the freezing ground. What are the chances of this remaining snowfall rather than rain or anything more substantial?

Edit; Never-mind it's a shower and it's forecast to rain overnight into tomorrow.

Edited December 28, 2017 by Deep Snow please

[Day 10]

For the Wirral & Liverpool 7am - 9am, maybe 2 hours of decent snowfall before turning back to rain. Then the further north and east could really be quite snowy for a time.

[Deep Snow please]

Already turning to sleety rain. That was short-lived.

[tvh3382]

Heavy snow in Rawtenstall and sticking.

[SP1986]

The latest Arome output has it spot on in my opinion. If you want to see the Arome it's in the north Yorks thread. 

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

The latest Arome output has it spot on in my opinion. If you want to see the Arome it's in the north Yorks thread. 

Not bad!

[Miamay]

Im not getting my hopes up this time but even a dusting would be more than last year

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Not bad!

Don't you think it overdoes the wintry element in the precipitation? It even has snow falling over the Irish sea? 

[SP1986]

I think you're right in the western extent Karyo, can't see it being that widespread actually.

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

Don't you think it overdoes the wintry element in the precipitation? It even has snow falling over the Irish sea? 

I don't know anymore, I've viewed that many charts today my eyes hurt lol.

It'll prob correct south last minute and hit the Midlands, they deserve an event they haven't had one for ages have they?

[karyo]

1 minute ago, SP1986 said:

I think you're right in the western extent Karyo, can't see it being that widespread actually.

I also notice that it has today's showers as snow which is quite a stretch. I had rain, hail and sleet today.