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DiagonalRedLine

North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

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Not going to get myself excited about fridays forcast - it always a big let down. :nonono:

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12 minutes ago, karyo said:

I like the 48 hour chart from the UKMO!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo/royaume-uni/500-hpa/48h.htm

Still slack wind at 1pm indicating bigger chance for the precipitation to be snow at least in the morning. It will turn to rain later when the deeper low brings winds from the west.

Indeed, that would give most of us some snow. What’s the betting the initial small low slides too far south and we just get rain when the main low turns the wind westerly?

Let’s hope for some luck this time. For the second time in two weeks being under the cloud shield, but too far north, as a slider, slides too much, is getting a bit wearing!

 

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 Another lightning strike near the Dee estuary.

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11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Another lightning strike near the Dee estuary.

Yeah really heavy hail here got a covering of it at least. 

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Has anyone got a plane tracker archive because I can't work out these odd lights this morning on my timelapse before sunrise

 

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3 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Yeah really heavy hail here got a covering of it at least. 

Nice one :-)

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Met office warnings mean nothing, I think we can all agree. 

People who say that we must be in the warning area to be in with a chance; I was in the Amber warning section last time and received nothing more than about a centimetre of snow. 

Looks to me like a sleety mess for low ground on the leading edge, turning to rain. High ground, snow and staying as snow. 

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The hail is doing a nice job cooling us down here evaporative cooling means that temp is down to 2.9c already here from 4.5 around half an hour ago.

Edited by Summerstorm

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I think it will snow in the North West. It looks increasingly likely that the front will stall over Northern England. The westward extent of the snow snow will be hard to forecast. 

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Just now, Cheese Rice said:

I think it will snow in the North West. It looks increasingly likely that the front will stall over Northern England. The westward extent of the snow snow will be hard to forecast. 

Hope your right Cheese but if it can go belly up for the NW region then i’m pretty certain it will.

your side of the Pennines, maybe a different story.

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Need to build a damn from Holyhead to Dublin & Campbletown to Ballycastle, stop the stupid Atlantic feeding the Irish sea warm water so we can have pure lake effect snow :yahoo:

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Streamer has set up in a line from the Isle of Man down to the Shrewsbury Area Sigh...:nonono:

C.S

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28 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Streamer has set up in a line from the Isle of Man down to the Shrewsbury Area Sigh...:nonono:

C.S

yes sigh, reminds me of 8th Dec, 6+ inches for Shrewsbury, Telford etc

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Well if what has happened with other systems like the one with Friday is that they’ve all shifted south towards the event itself. With the warnings north of us it’d be good if the same happened with this one. Sod’s law it won’t though 😂

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2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Has anyone got a plane tracker archive because I can't work out these odd lights this morning on my timelapse before sunrise

 

Could be Iridium Satellites but they look more to be aircraft in a holding pattern, playback on FR24 shows only flights heading straight inbound to MAN and LPL at the time. My best guess is that it's something to do with the KC135 that went into Prestwick at around this same time on a 7700 'emergency' landing, with the accompanying USAF fighters diverting down into the Irish Sea for a stop-over at RAF Valley perhaps? 

Untitled.thumb.jpg.9d1733c319d2c8ab1155c110303aca8e.jpg

 

Edited by SNOW_JOKE

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16 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Could be Iridium Satellites but they look more to be aircraft in a holding pattern, playback on FR24 shows only flights heading straight inbound to MAN and LPL at the time. My best guess is that it's something to do with the KC135 that went into Prestwick at around this same time on a 7700 'emergency' landing, with the accompanying USAF fighters diverting down into the Irish Sea for a stop-over at RAF Valley perhaps? 

Untitled.thumb.jpg.9d1733c319d2c8ab1155c110303aca8e.jpg

 

Thanks, really odd looking.

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I think I can help here, Not weather related I know, but I thought I would help. Courtesy of FR24 and my own tracker, 

The lights you can see are inbounds for Runway 05 at Manchester. With Easterly breezes down the runway, traffic off the Irish sea is routed towards the beacon at MIRSI (not a spelling mistake:)) and then vectored towards 05, overhead Warrington etc. 

So, you would only normally see these inbound lights with easterlies at Ringway.

At a guess, from FR24, I would go for 

United 81 from Newark

Flybe 471 from Belfast Harbour

Easyjet 130 from Belfast George Best

etc, etc.

 

Pete.

 

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Evening everybody,

Having broke the ice (we wish), with a quick post about Weather History's time-lapse, just a quick intro.

I have lurked on here for seven years now, enjoying the banter, whilst not understanding the deep technicalities of the models (who are Bartlett and Madden anyway?) and love the way the forums go supersonic with a sniff of snow in the air. 

Hello everyone, Happy New Year, and don't get too jealous of them lot in the Midlands hey?

 

Pete. (Old enough to remember 1962/63, as a child yes, but old enough)

Edited by PeteRoberts
addition

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40 minutes ago, PeteRoberts said:

Evening everybody,

Having broke the ice (we wish), with a quick post about Weather History's time-lapse, just a quick intro.

I have lurked on here for seven years now, enjoying the banter, whilst not understanding the deep technicalities of the models (who are Bartlett and Madden anyway?) and love the way the forums go supersonic with a sniff of snow in the air. 

Hello everyone, Happy New Year, and don't get too jealous of them lot in the Midlands hey?

 

Pete. (Old enough to remember 1962/63, as a child yes, but old enough)

Welcome to the Forum Pete.

Arpege Model 12z Showing 3 hours of snowfall for the region Friday Morning,Before Milder air moves in Gradually from the west.

C.S  

 

 

Edited by cheshire snow

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2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Welcome to the Forum Pete.

Arpege Model 12z Showing 3 hours of snowfall for the region Friday Morning,Before Milder air moves in Gradually from the west.

C.S  

 

 

Exactly c s makes it rather pointless 

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47 minutes ago, PeteRoberts said:

Evening everybody,

Having broke the ice (we wish), with a quick post about Weather History's time-lapse, just a quick intro.

I have lurked on here for seven years now, enjoying the banter, whilst not understanding the deep technicalities of the models (who are Bartlett and Madden anyway?) and love the way the forums go supersonic with a sniff of snow in the air. 

Hello everyone, Happy New Year, and don't get too jealous of them lot in the Midlands hey?

 

Pete. (Old enough to remember 1962/63, as a child yes, but old enough)

Welcome to the crazy house :good:

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1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Exactly c s makes it rather pointless 

Looks like the form horse for the mean time Mate.

two to three day cold snaps followed by milder ETC,ETC and yes the distinct possibility of those Horrible Sliders,Which we know will always correct southwards and give the Midlands a pasting

Oh well keeps us on our toes I suppose.

C.S

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48 minutes ago, PeteRoberts said:

Evening everybody,

Having broke the ice (we wish), with a quick post about Weather History's time-lapse, just a quick intro.

I have lurked on here for seven years now, enjoying the banter, whilst not understanding the deep technicalities of the models (who are Bartlett and Madden anyway?) and love the way the forums go supersonic with a sniff of snow in the air. 

Hello everyone, Happy New Year, and don't get too jealous of them lot in the Midlands hey?

 

Pete. (Old enough to remember 1962/63, as a child yes, but old enough)

Welcome to the schizophrenic’s size prohect! You will get used to dissatisfaction and stress!! 😂😂😂 

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