North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[pip22]

I got a nasty gut feeling the Low will stay to the north of us sadly.

If the models shifts the low further south tonight I'll be happier. Fingers and toes crossed.

The further south the low the more quicker the cold get back.

Edited January 15, 2018 by pip22

[cheshire snow]

24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

While tomorrow holds most interest im still clinging to the hope this low can shift 100miles south come wed night...

Sounds a lot but its still forming and 100miles isnt a lot in the grand scheme of things..

I am clinging on to the hope that the LP ends up in the Midlands and we get battered by

The mother of all blizzards follwed by 48 hrs of Heavy snow showers.

Now that is HOPE CASTING

C.S

[Yorkshirepudding]

11 minutes ago, pip22 said:

I got a nasty gut feeling the Low will stay to the north of us sadly.

If the models shifts the low further south tonight I'll be happier. Fingers and toes crossed.

The further south the low the more quicker the cold get back.

We have already had a slight upgrade as the low as shifted south slightly. The more south the more chance of snow on the leading edge on Wednesday night/ Thursday and yes you are correct the faster it goes back cold as it passes through. Still an interesting 24-48hours to come predicting the exact track. 

Edited January 15, 2018 by Yorkshirepudding

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

 

The mother of all blizzards follwed by 48 hrs of Heavy snow showers.

 

That will do for me 

[dodge]

Just catching up...quite surprised how much they low as shifted south on latest model run...hopefully as continuing trend.  No surprise the met issuing yellow warning for snow & ice....the two amber warnings this winter left me very little,  but this time with a chilly WNwestly this is looking more hopeful.  The snow shield won't be as productive as per  last month's slider.

Edited January 15, 2018 by dodgeredee

[Chris.R]

Latest text forecast for tonight. Upgrade in wording again. 

This Evening and Tonight:

A cold and windy night, with clear spells and blustery showers. The showers will fall as snow over the hills, but also to some lower levels at times, bringing a risk of icy patches in places by morning. Minimum temperature 0 °C.

[itsnowjoke]

What time is this meant to start as the skies here looking a weird colour

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, itsnowjoke said:

What time is this meant to start as the skies here looking a weird colour

Overnight, earlier higher up you are.

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, itsnowjoke said:

What time is this meant to start as the skies here looking a weird colour

8:51 pm

[frosty ground]

Low is on its way on the ICON (First model out),,,,,,, Looks like its getting here earlier (when you scan the last 24 hours) Also looking like a track change already. 

[itsnowjoke]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

8:51 pm

Hahahaha 

[karyo]

 

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Low is on its way on the ICON (First model out),,,,,,, Looks like its getting here earlier (when you scan the last 24 hours) Also looking like a track change already. 

I see a slight southern correction in its track at this early timeframe.

Edited January 15, 2018 by karyo

[Had Worse]

Just now, karyo said:

Some early good news from the updated ICON. The low is a bit shallower and further south than the earlier run.

I see a slight southern correction in its track at this early timeframe.

I see where your heading and whats on your wishlist.

Oh to be a fly on the wall at the Met Office

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, karyo said:

 

I see a slight southern correction in its track at this early timeframe.

Wonder why these lows always track further south as we get closer to 0hrs..

[frosty ground]

Further south, but probably to far north for this run at least...... Can the other models carry on this trend?

It's further south becasue its not as intense NWS.

[karyo]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Wonder why these lows always track further south as we get closer to 0hrs..

No idea, maybe a model bias. In this case it can work to our favour though so I am not complaining.

The Azores high looks a bit flatter now which allows the more southerly track of this low. Still too far north for us on the ICON but room for further corrections southwards hopefully.

[karyo]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Further south, but probably to far north for this run at least...... Can the other models carry on this trend?

It's further south becasue its not as intense NWS.

Look at the AH, is has slightly deflated.

[frosty ground]

850's show it well

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

850's show it well

Look the same to me?

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Look the same to me?

Always work from the centre of the low, it's a good 50-75 miles further south 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Look the same to me?

Mild sector is a bit more south not enough south for this region.

[captaincroc]

We have a few days of 'trending' as long as we keep shifting every 6 hours we could be in for a surprise. If I lived Cumbria, Lancashire I would be getting excited. I personally need a BIG shift to get any snow from the low here!

[frosty ground]

two more corrections like this and we end up in the sweet spot.

PPN Chart Is probably the best guide.

Edited January 15, 2018 by frosty ground

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Mild sector is a bit more south not enough south for this region.

Guess i will have to make do with tomorrows heavy snow showers

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

We have a few days of 'trending' as long as we keep shifting every 6 hours we could be in for a surprise. If I lived Cumbria, Lancashire I would be getting excited. I personally need a BIG shift to get any snow from the low here!

Not a huge one following ICON 100-200 miles more apparently the envelope of error is as big as 250 miles.