North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Chris.R]

 After around midday tomorrow rain will be very minimal indeed;? either hail, graupel or wet snow. 

[frosty ground]

And its up!!!!
2-6 cm of snow may fall in places, especially on higher ground above 100-200m. A slushy cover of 1 or 2 cm seems more likely at lower levels and closer to the western coasts, some areas seeing very little or no snow. Some drifting may occur on cross-Pennine routes in the strong to gale winds

[Chris.R]

 Yellow warning for snow and ice. 

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

And its up!!!!
2-6 cm of snow may fall in places, especially on higher ground above 100-200m. A slushy cover of 1 or 2 cm seems more likely at lower levels and closer to the western coasts, some areas seeing very little or no snow. Some drifting may occur on cross-Pennine routes in the strong to gale winds

I can easily see Manchester and Liverpool in the little or no snow part of the warming. To be honest some intense hail and lighning will do me fine.

[Chris.R]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

And its up!!!!
2-6 cm of snow may fall in places, especially on higher ground above 100-200m. A slushy cover of 1 or 2 cm seems more likely at lower levels and closer to the western coasts, some areas seeing very little or no snow. Some drifting may occur on cross-Pennine routes in the strong to gale winds

  I’d say that last bit about low levels is about what has been expected all along. I think there will be larger accumulations over higher ground than they think though.  

Edited January 15, 2018 by Chris.R

[northwestsnow]

Better late than never.

fg that will be drifting snow for you matey!!

For the rest of us lower down just a case of hoping for late upgrades...

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

I can easily see Manchester and Liverpool in the little or no snow part of the warming. To be honest some intense hail and lighning will do me fine.

Me too.  Last few years I’ve had more lightning in winter than summer. 

[Spah1]

After all that

"and then affect parts of Wales and the Midlands Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday."

The showers will miss the North West!!!

 

[northwestsnow]

You can see by the nature of the warnings just how utterly horrific the irish sea is for our region.

Which some one would drop 45 cubic tonnes of ice on it.

[Spah1]

Or does it mean they will spread to Wales and the Midlands as well as the North West???

[Chris.R]

Just now, Spah1 said:

Or does it mean they will spread to Wales and the Midlands as well as the North West???

Yes

[Spah1]

A slushy cover of 1 or 2 cm seems more likely at lower levels and closer to the western coasts

Can't wait.

[robbo88]

I think everyone needs to take a step back and breathe. We have a weather warning.

if it isn't snowing in your back yard tomorrow moan then. Just try to think positive right now.

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You can see by the nature of the warnings just how utterly horrific the irish sea is for our region.

Which some one would drop 45 cubic tonnes of ice on it.

Wait till we reach solar minimum and then the Irish sea will be our friend for a couple of years.

[cheshire snow]

LOL

Weather warning out and folk still not happy.

Just seen the forecast for tomorrow on bbc and there are lines of snow showers moving

Accross the region tomorrow afternoon.

C.S

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, robbo88 said:

I think everyone needs to take a step back and breathe. We have a weather warning.

if it isn't snowing in your back yard tomorrow moan then. Just try to think positive right now.

Yes i think your right rob..

We are in the warnings now so like you say its time to sit back and see how it goes.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

LOL

Weather warning out and folk still not happy.

Just seen the forecast for tomorrow on bbc and there are lines of snow showers moving

Accross the region tomorrow afternoon.

C.S

Im happy we are in the warning zone cs.

Like rob said

Lets wait and see.

[Chris.R]

There are two big problems with this set up. Realistically, the 850s just aren’t cold enough. You are going to really need -9s or -10s to have any chance of lying snow to sea-level in an o–shore wind. Secondly: the wind will be very strong throughout. This will both extend the influence of the sea many miles inland, and also mix out the air so that evaporative cooling will have little effect despite the very low dew points. 

 Let’s wait and see though, yes. 

Edited January 15, 2018 by Chris.R

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

There are two big problems with this set up. Realistically, the 850s just aren’t cold enough. You are going to really need -9s or -10s to have any chance of lying snow to sea-level in an o–shore wind. Secondly: the wind will be very strong throughout. This will both extend the influence of the sea many miles inland, and also mix out the air so that evaporative cooling will have little effect despite the very low dew points. 

The chances of getting -9/-10 uppers on a westerly are next to big fat zero.

[shaky]

The fact that we are getting 850 temps of -7 or -8  from a westerly is shocking enough!!i personally think it will be enough for snow and lying snow widely across the north west!!all the parametres are perfect!!thicknesses are pretty damn good aswell from the euro4!!

[Spah1]

To be honest whats the point when its all going to be washed away Wednesday night???

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

To be honest whats the point when its all going to be washed away Wednesday night???

I agree to a certain extent.

Even one snow day would be appreciated in the current cycle of garbage winters.

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

The fact that we are getting 850 temps of -7 or -8  from a westerly is shocking enough!!i personally think it will be enough for snow and lying snow widely across the north west!!all the parametres are perfect!!thicknesses are pretty damn good aswell from the euro4!!

I would agree if the -7 or -8 uppers were going to be long lasting but they are very brief. Fot the most time we are talking around -6.

Chris has a very good point about the strength of the wind. It increases the Irish sea moderation too much.

[Geordiesnow]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

To be honest whats the point when its all going to be washed away Wednesday night???

True but still don' rule out that low being a bit further southwards either so all to play for.

I'm just looking forward to the convective side of things during this spell of weather, hopefully no nuisance high cloud will roll in and ruin that!

[northwestsnow]

I suppose the irish bath is colder yhan average so that will certainly help.

Think chris said its around 6.7 deg.