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North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, iand61 said:

No we’ll get one in May after April has been nothing but northern blocking:wallbash:

Its almost guaranteed northern blocking will surface in spring- its an unfortunate trait of recent winters...

The lack of warnings for tues into wed has me completely baffled TBH- i have no idea why the metoffice are point blank refusing to inc our region, all the NWP and bbc text are suggestive of snow- 

Maybe i'm being too optimistic , i have no idea.

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its almost guaranteed northern blocking will surface in spring- its an unfortunate trait of recent winters...

The lack of warnings for tues into wed has me completely baffled TBH- i have no idea why the metoffice are point blank refusing to inc our region, all the NWP and bbc text are suggestive of snow- 

Maybe i'm being too optimistic , i have no idea.

I expect that the areas covered now will go Amber next, the likelihood threshold is already at its maximum, just the impact one to raise.

as for us I think we will get a yellow warning, either later today or in the morning but there must still be a lot of doubt in Exeter’s mind.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

As far as snow potential right here on the coast is concerned, i very much doubt i will see any lying snow but I do hope I see some snow actually falling and of course the classic beefy heavy hail showers which can produce a covering at least for a while and hopefully some thunder/lightning too. Tuesday does look like the best day for this to happen and whatever happens, its got to be more exciting than this rubbish blocked set up we got at the moment.

Too much uncertainty regarding the potential storm mid week although I would welcome it personally, still don't rule out a more shallow feature just yet mind as these things can vary rapidly.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its almost guaranteed northern blocking will surface in spring- its an unfortunate trait of recent winters...

The lack of warnings for tues into wed has me completely baffled TBH- i have no idea why the metoffice are point blank refusing to inc our region, all the NWP and bbc text are suggestive of snow- 

Maybe i'm being too optimistic , i have no idea.

Of course, as the PV starts to weaken because of the natural warming we see through the spring months, then yes, blocking does become more likely as we go through April and into May in particular, nothing unusual and of course we all hope any blocking is gone by when the summer months start!

 

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Posted
  • Location: blackburn
  • Weather Preferences: heavy snow/ heatwaves
  • Location: blackburn

Looking more and more like a classic northwest letdown this...getting really p**sed off with it now year after year after year.

Edited by chicken soup
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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
9 minutes ago, kegan1811 said:

How’s it looking for the Rossendale area this week?

Dark dismal and roads full of pot holes and temporary traffic lights.

oh and the chance of a bit of snow the higher up the valley you are.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire

What have I missed?!

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Posted
  • Location: moorside, Oldham, Greater Manchester
  • Location: moorside, Oldham, Greater Manchester
4 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

What have I missed?!

The low is messing up our chances of decent snow. Still half decent shot Tuesday but after this your looking at decent elevation 

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Its almost guaranteed northern blocking will surface in spring- its an unfortunate trait of recent winters...

The lack of warnings for tues into wed has me completely baffled TBH- i have no idea why the metoffice are point blank refusing to inc our region, all the NWP and bbc text are suggestive of snow- 

Maybe i'm being too optimistic , i have no idea.

I said yesterday don't expect any warnings to appear until tomorrow; I expect the yellow warning area to extend over NW region but perhaps excluding coastal areas with the emphasis on snow to higher ground, they will remain very conservative until Tuesday probably. 

As for the storm track projected mid week - far too distant to have any confidence just where it might track, there is often a southern correction come the neartime frame. 

I feel today is going to be one of those days to stay out of the model and regional threads - all doom and gloom, I also think the models for some reason struggle on a Sunday - day of rest etc, and expect further changes tomorrow.

A word on this week just gone - gosh just how dismal and dull has it been, apart from Monday which was a lovely crisp sunny blue sky day. Rare to have a bone dry week in the depths of winter when not under high pressure - nothing is shifting the cloud, its just static - hibernation mood, adding to the general gloom that pervades this time of year. For this reason I'm looking forward to some actual weather; its like the record has gone stuck for 6 days now.. goodbye limpet high to our east - good riddance!

Edited by damianslaw
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Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl

Well doing roast leg of lamb, stuffing, roast tats... will light logburner in a bit... dull out bit brighter atm... 3c... birds out everywhere, very busy bird feeders, geese in field behind making a racket... watching skiing on Eurosport... looking forward to football at 4pm... might break open a cider for it... still lookslike snow showers with lots of instability tues/wed then thurs night/Friday, met forecast for Peak District still uncertain for we’d night/thurs.... but still going for snow showers... at least high res models now coming into view... I’d guess met update warnings either this evening/tom morning... 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
10 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Latest Euro 4 for 06 Tuesday

18011606_1406.gif

That explains why there is no warning for our region.

Although to be fair its the following 24 hours that are of interest.

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle
13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That explains why there is no warning for our region.

Although to be fair its the following 24 hours that are of interest.

:)

Is that Tuesday morning, i thought our best chances were tuesday afternoon night and into Wed 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

That explains why there is no warning for our region.

Although to be fair its the following 24 hours that are of interest.

:)

The next two updates will be interesting. Not expecting it to go mental with accumulations, being the EURO 4, but would be nice to see some accumulations indicated on lower ground by 18z Tuesday.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
52 minutes ago, cfallon said:

The low is messing up our chances of decent snow. Still half decent shot Tuesday but after this your looking at decent elevation 

There’s always something messing up our chances, it’s NW England for you haha! You can guarantee summer will be the coldest for 50 years now though

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Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
1 hour ago, WillinGlossop said:

Well doing roast leg of lamb, stuffing, roast tats... will light logburner in a bit... dull out bit brighter atm... 3c... birds out everywhere, very busy bird feeders, geese in field behind making a racket... watching skiing on Eurosport... looking forward to football at 4pm... might break open a cider for it... still lookslike snow showers with lots of instability tues/wed then thurs night/Friday, met forecast for Peak District still uncertain for we’d night/thurs.... but still going for snow showers... at least high res models now coming into view... I’d guess met update warnings either this evening/tom morning... 

Sounds like a plan 

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Posted
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun ,Snow and Cold
  • Location: Wigan 259 ft ASL where it always rains
On 11/01/2018 at 20:39, Spurry said:

Rain for Wigan again :sorry:

I knew it would happen

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

It’s a good job that I take the Met and BBC app symbols with a pinch of salt as they are getting watered down for my location every time they update.

4 days of heavy snow showers showing on Friday is now a few snow showers on Tuesday, sleet on Wednesday and rain on Thursday.

even the return to bitter cold afterwards is now coolish at best.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, iand61 said:

It’s a good job that I take the Met and BBC app symbols with a pinch of salt as they are getting watered down for my location every time they update.

4 days of heavy snow showers showing on Friday is now a few snow showers on Tuesday, sleet on Wednesday and rain on Thursday.

even the return to bitter cold afterwards is now coolish at best.

 

They have upgraded for higher parts of Oldham- heavy snow pretty much all day tues and snow until tea time wed.

I'm going wait for euro4 this evening before giving up the ghost..

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Think about it, if you are member from Kent, is the coming spell going to contain as much interest as up this area?

Yes, but there was never really anything of note of Mon-Thurs providing anything for areas away from the north and west, or away from high ground. I think the expectation dropped as the storm in Wednesday was pulling in much milder uppers last night.

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

I’m assuming that this is now looking like a standard NW flow with strong winds and wintry showers (rain and hail low level, and everything in the east of the region with some elevation? Metoffice seem to have been consistent with rain or rain showers here throughout.

Edited by Darren Bown
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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I'm not really to enthused about snow chances this time around but the chances of convective and thundery showers has my interest

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