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North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Weather-history said:

Probably tonight as they may give a clue for tomorrow night.

Yes thought it might be a bit soon.

As others have said, the meto text is quite an upgrade :)

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, its only one piece of the jigsaw but once you get to -7 uppers its game on in my experience...

Agreed, I think we would be terribly unlucky not to see snow at all levels by Tuesday. Are we expecting a milder blip mid week given the low is now tracking further North? I know this is subject to change of course.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, Dexter said:

Agreed, I think we would be terribly unlucky not to see snow at all levels by Tuesday. Are we expecting a milder blip mid week given the low is now tracking further North? I know this is subject to change of course.

Yes, all models agree on the cold air being swept away through wed, back to a colder PM flow thur/fri/sat.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Euro 4 is starting coming into range. Already suggesting accumulations over the higher Cumbrian Fells at midnight Monday into Tuesday. 

18011600_1400.gif

A tiny area of accumulation also shown on the hills of North Wales by then as well. Isn't EURO4 normally more pessimistic about accumulations and falling snow compared to other high res models? This is not to say it is incorrect of course.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Dexter said:

A tiny area of accumulation also shown on the hills of North Wales by then as well. Isn't EURO4 normally more pessimistic about accumulations and falling snow compared to other high res models? This is not to say it is incorrect of course.

I dont tend to look at it, probably because it hardly ever shows snow in this region.(which means its pretty accurate )!!

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

I’ll post the Liverpool one as I usually do tomorrow.  That one only goes out to 24 hours. 

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
44 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

A Coulda night than forecast, currently 2.4°C which is a little surprising. 

 Don’t give up on the runner yet guys, it’s still over 84 hours away.   Who here can ever forget when 84 hours before the 10th of December we were all expecting to be buried in snow and yet  that low ended up a hundred miles further south! 

Class. 34 years on and we're none the wiser. :closedeyes:

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

So wednesday night is either a storm with damaging winds and rain or a very small chamce if snow. Would rater see snow as its less destructive.

Lookimg like a wintry e6 hourseither side of the low.

Tge lows track is far from certain 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
1 hour ago, Dexter said:

The uppers look good for Tuesday. However, I'm sure there is a post somewhere about the variables that need to be in place for snow to fall. Aren't there something like ten different atmospheric parameters that all have to be in place?

Hi mate. I think the other parameters are on our side... Dew points below freezing, sub 528 dam.. Obviously doesn't guarantee anything :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl

2c drizzle low clouds grey.... bbc/met sounding more wintry in their text but should expect warnings ⚠️ To be issued if not this morning tomorrow morning... for wind/snow/rain.... still lookslike snow either side of wed night/Thursday low.... still could go north/south.... even 50-100 miles could make all the difference.... at least high res models now coming into view so should get a bit more detail over the next 24hrs... 

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Posted
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester

First time I've seen the BBC throw the graphics out for Thursday's low and at this rate the snowy northern flank will be the Shetland Isles, we could be in for quite a stormy ride but it's looking like rain on Thursday.  Until then I'd be surprised if my area doesn't at least see a passing wintry shower or two through Tues/Wed, and that's quite a bit more than other areas of the UK will see.  So thankfully I've positioned myself leeward side of the ramp and my expectations are still in check.

Edited by dodgeredee
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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

So wednesday night is either a storm with damaging winds and rain or a very small chamce if snow. Would rater see snow as its less destructive.

Lookimg like a wintry e6 hourseither side of the low.

Tge lows track is far from certain 

Earlier BBC forecast mentioned the storm and showed it tracking toughly over our part of the country as a nasty feature.

it also mentioned snow but the graphics showed it further north into Scotland.

things could change of course but i’m sticking to my thoughts of yesterday that we will end up in that no mans land of neither gales or snow.

calm conditions and with our very own mild sector and drizzle.

at least we have a 24 hours window of opportunity for snow before it arrives although i’m still expecting to be shovelling far more potential than actual snow when I get home from work on Tuesday evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
4 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

Hi mate. I think the other parameters are on our side... Dew points below freezing, sub 528 dam.. Obviously doesn't guarantee anything :rofl:

Yep, all looks great, what could possibly go wrong!? :D

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Posted
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside
  • Location: Newton-le-Willows, Warrington, Merseyside

Different tone in Here compared to the model thread. It’s all doom and gloom over there as uppers don’t seem to be as cold?

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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
2 hours ago, chicken soup said:

Bit of a morale boost from the met office...at least they now mention snow at lower levels.

........even Salwick? :shok:

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
1 minute ago, Darren Bown said:

Different tone in Here compared to the model thread. It’s all doom and gloom over there as uppers don’t seem to be as cold?

The FI Easterly has disappeared which may explain the mood.....

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Different tone in Here compared to the model thread. It’s all doom and gloom over there as uppers don’t seem to be as cold?

The EC has upgraded the uppers Tues :)

-7s into the north west..

Looks good to me - think tues will be busy!!

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
3 minutes ago, Darren Bown said:

Different tone in Here compared to the model thread. It’s all doom and gloom over there as uppers don’t seem to be as cold?

Think about it, if you are member from Kent, is the coming spell going to contain as much interest as up this area?

Edited by Weather-history
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe
  • Location: Crewe
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

The EC has upgraded the uppers Tues :)

-7s into the north west..

Looks good to me - think tues will be busy!!

Yeah, lots of energy in the air too so should be some belting showers! 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
Just now, captaincroc said:

Yeah, lots of energy in the air too so should be some belting showers! 

The fax charts will be interesting to see potential for organised bands/ troughs in the flow.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, captaincroc said:

Yeah, lots of energy in the air too so should be some belting showers! 

Yep, -7uppers and your altitude should see snow - the only issue for your area is the wind direction, it looks more w/wnw which would favour places a little further north.

But hopefully you will catch some beefy showers :)

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