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North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

Although the apps are poor i’d r ather them be showing snow not 4 degrees and rain. 

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

I went down to Leyland half an hour ago and I saw gritters on the roads maybe they preparing for next week's weather. Maybe the met office may have contacted them.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Well here is the EC thicknesses

tues looks coldest and possibly our best chance, so we will need to be seeing something a bit more positive from the pros by tomorrow i should think-

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

wed

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

thu

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

fri

No chart available for the selected hour. Many charts start at 3 hours ahead, so if you have 0 hours selected try stepping forward or selecting a later hour.

stays cold until monday--

So, we are looking at tues -6uppers and wed/thur/fri -5 uppers.

Dew points etc not 100% but GFS gas them negative throughout.

Altitude is defo going to be  big factor, imho.

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl

What happened to Ian Fergusson the met guy who gave snipers out on this site.

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Posted
  • Location: Aberfoyle 50m asl
  • Weather Preferences: any storms
  • Location: Aberfoyle 50m asl

Evening all 

Just dropping in from the scottyland thread and i see you guy's are the same as we are with the will it or won't it snow .

I've got no doubt that we will get pasted in the next few days myonly concern is will it b 1-3 inches of snow or 3-6 :drunk-emoji:

N.W.S   i thought your boss had caught you checking the latest model runs at work 

Hope you get posting again soon  in the model thread ?

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I’ve looked at all the data. 

Read all the posts. 

Looked at all the Tweets ..........and I have no idea if it’s going to snow (and lay) or it’s just going to be rain shower after rain shower. 

Pitty it’s a mid week event. 

Don’t worry mate, neither have Exeter and the other professional outfits.

its going to be a case of looking out of the window and hoping Lady Luck is finally on our side.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashton u Lyne lancashire 102asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & sunshine
  • Location: Ashton u Lyne lancashire 102asl.

Looking good for me in ashton u lyne 108asl for next week.20180113_205225.thumb.png.f54235b6acbe8893d8d77e2a2f54567f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
33 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

I think the GFS may be overdoing the uppers at -5 -6 when in reality they will be -3 -4 that's the difference between rain and snow...the GFS is known to do this quite often.

 Well we are all buggered then, except for Will obviously! 

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC is mainly  -5,tues -6.

not enough for low levels. just hoping winds are westerly enough for me to stay mainly dry, my location needs -10 off convective westerly

This setup in April though more likely to produce snow, especially inland with land convection, snow only lie before 9am of course

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
33 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC has the DAM  at 521 for tues..thats cold...think that translates to uppers of -6..

  Thicknesses and 850s not always  convertible imo. 

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

Found this https://www.freemaptools.com/elevation-finder.htm so you can check your elevation and other locations.

I was amazed to find that Monks Road, Charlesworth, which I can see from my kitchen window is 379.2m or 1244ft where I park the car, thats 10 minutes drive from home. (150m)

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
26 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not enough for low levels. just hoping winds are westerly enough for me to stay mainly dry, my location needs -10 off convective westerly

This setup in April though more likely to produce snow, especially inland with land convection, snow only lie before 9am of course

Think there are other factors at play but based on 850s alone i would day im right on the borderline at my height.

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
16 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Found this https://www.freemaptools.com/elevation-finder.htm so you can check your elevation and other locations.

I was amazed to find that Monks Road, Charlesworth, which I can see from my kitchen window is 379.2m or 1244ft where I park the car, thats 10 minutes drive from home. (150m)

Same for me.. I'm 198m yet 5 min drive winter hill is 444m 

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think there are other factors at play but based on 850s alone i would day im right on the borderline at my height.

Use the force NWS, use the force.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think there are other factors at play but based on 850s alone i would day im right on the borderline at my height.

the runner though, can snow at around -2, just need to be north of the mild sector

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

the runner though, can snow at around -2, just need to be north of the mild sector

But once it swings round to a westerly based after passing, we could be back to needing altitude again?

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, Had Worse said:

But once it swings round to a westerly based after passing, we could be back to needing altitude again?

Yes cos it's a convective flow, more favourable for my location and S of this region, as winds more northerly, long way out though

gfs-0-156.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Nutts Corner
  • Location: Nutts Corner
1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

I’ve looked at all the data. 

Read all the posts. 

Looked at all the Tweets ..........and I have no idea if it’s going to snow (and lay) or it’s just going to be rain shower after rain shower. 

Pitty it’s a mid week event. 

I posted this on the MOD thread early but was deleted along with a bunch of other posts.

Text is interesting reading, I wouldn’t get to caught up on the illustration though, we all know how hard it is to call

Good luck to you folk anyway

18FB7DDF-4F60-4A29-BFB0-4D14D2523B72.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
  • Location: Glossop Derbyshire 300m asl
46 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Found this https://www.freemaptools.com/elevation-finder.htm so you can check your elevation and other locations.

I was amazed to find that Monks Road, Charlesworth, which I can see from my kitchen window is 379.2m or 1244ft where I park the car, thats 10 minutes drive from home. (150m)

Try this site....shows you how high some areas surprisingly are to what you’d expect....

https://www.daftlogic.com/sandbox-google-maps-find-altitude.htm

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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
3 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Try this site....shows you how high some areas surprisingly are to what you’d expect....

https://www.daftlogic.com/sandbox-google-maps-find-altitude.htm

Gives the same result, I cant increase my height.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

Thursdays low goes through the NW☹️. 

Need it to correct South. 

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Evening

Was going to post my thoughts for next week,but after watching the

Week ahead forecast I thought best not,if you are looking for snow

It was awfull for the whole region,little precipitation,either the models have

Severely over estimated this or Meto are under playing the potential.

If tonight' week ahead forecast is correct Buxton will be lucky to see 2cm

Never mind some of the mind boggling amounts that GFS has been

Spurting out.

C.S

Edited by cheshire snow
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District

Its going to be a lampost watching / nowcasting situation. I always advise people to watch the forecast and if it does something differnet, I will say that I could only advise based on the data I had at the time. After all, its the computers best guess at what is above our heads based on sketchy data which will have loads of areas without coverage.

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