North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Heres hoping for some snow for Carlisle, not seen any this year apart from a passing shower 

Yes if i miss out i would like the cumbrians to see a good snowy spell- its been a bleak few years here but even worse for you guys.

[severe snowstorm]

4 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Should we be worried about the Met O reluctance to put up weather warnings for anyone south of the border.

yes the snow for our region was not due to arrive until Tuesday but Scotland and NI. are now under a warning for all day Tuesday but us.....zilch.

has it been put back, downgraded or postponed through lack of interest or are the Met on the brink of seriously underestimating what is lurking over the horizon.

i hope it’s the latter but knowing our luck, suspect one of the others.

even Thursdays storm track looks like it will be the worst possible one for ourselves, further north and we get the peak of the winds but likely a snow to rain event, further south and it is less wind but a lot more chance of getting and keeping heavy snow, current most likely track we miss out the best chances of both wind and snow and end up in a breezy and wet mild sector.

still time for changes but I went out this morning feeling that we were on the cusp of something very rare and special but come home to that defeat from the jaws of victory feeling.

 

I expect warnings may be issued tomorrow morning to cover the period overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, assuming the models don't change drastically of course.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, cfallon said:

Loving amtge possibility of some good snow next week but how come the met office and bbc etc aren’t to excited about anything but showers 

think we're all wondering why no warnings have been issued fallon, Ian just asked the same question.

Maybe its not going to be that snowy for the majority afterall..?

[Joe Bloggs]

Some overanalysis/panic going on.

Guys, look at the GFS run, there will be snow showers on Tuesday night unless the law of physics don’t play ball.

Try not to worry too much about the Met Office, the apps, or the warnings.

FWIW- the MetO issued Manchester with a snow warning as late as the Monday evening on 4th January 2010, and I think that was a yellow.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Joe Bloggs

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Should we be worried about the Met O reluctance to put up weather warnings for anyone south of the border.

yes the snow for our region was not due to arrive until Tuesday but Scotland and NI. are now under a warning for all day Tuesday but us.....zilch.

has it been put back, downgraded or postponed through lack of interest or are the Met on the brink of seriously underestimating what is lurking over the horizon.

i hope it’s the latter but knowing our luck, suspect one of the others.

even Thursdays storm track looks like it will be the worst possible one for ourselves, further north and we get the peak of the winds but likely a snow to rain event, further south and it is less wind but a lot more chance of getting and keeping heavy snow, current most likely track we miss out the best chances of both wind and snow and end up in a breezy and wet mild sector.

still time for changes but I went out this morning feeling that we were on the cusp of something very rare and special but come home to that defeat from the jaws of victory feeling.

 

Must admit the latest Meto update this morning hasn't changed for Tues which is surprising, plus it is the lowest warning they can give with the tick being in the unlikely bracket. Maybe they are still being very cautious, still quite a few runs to go I suppose til the working week.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

Some overanalysis/panic going on.

Guys, look at the GFS run, there will be snow showers unless the law of physics don’t play ball.

Try not to worry too much about the Met Office, the apps, or the warnings.

FWIW- the MetO issued Manchester with a snow warning as late as the Monday evening on 4th January 2010. 

Yes i hear you Joe

However, warnings have been issued for Scotty/NI for tues, so thats a little suprising they have not included the north west.

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Some overanalysis/panic going on.

Guys, look at the GFS run, there will be snow showers unless the law of physics don’t play ball.

Try not to worry too much about the Met Office, the apps, or the warnings.

FWIW- the MetO issued Manchester with a snow warning as late as the Monday evening on 4th January 2010. 

Yes, I have seen warnings issued during the morning before overnight snow showers have hit many times in the past. They will wait until they have sufficient confidence of impacts etc.

[Thunder Snow]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes if i miss out i would like the cumbrians to see a good snowy spell- its been a bleak few years here but even worse for you guys.

Yep but if it was 350mm of rain you can guarantee it would have our names on ot loooool.

 

Im not greedy a couple of cms will do lol

[Joe Bloggs]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i hear you Joe

However, warnings have been issued for Scotty/NI for tues, so thats a little suprising they have not included the north west.

I think they’ll come, but even if they don’t, I’ve seen more than enough evidence that some of us will be waking up to snow on Wednesday morning. 

I am putting a lot of faith in the GFS - that would have to be hugely off the mark for us to miss out now.

It could be we get some snow but it isn’t hugely disruptive/worthy of a warning - that is also a possibility.

Sometimes too much focus is put on the Met Office and their warnings, particularly in convective snow setups IMO. Local knowledge and past experience is just as beneficial. 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Joe Bloggs

[Acupuncturist]

If the GFS was correct then yes we should be under a warning for our area but I dont think the met office use the GFS so maybe that explains the lackof warnings as their own models are seeing things differently.? Id be more excited if the Beeb or met were suggesting snow. I think we might soon get a warning for strong winds though (and heavy rain )

Nothings certain however and at least there is still a chance

Edited January 13, 2018 by Acupuncturist

[HafrenLMP1]

I'm expecting wind & rain; any snow will be like 8 - 10 Dec; brief flurries that never look like sticking.....Though I'll be happy to be wrong.

[severe snowstorm]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i hear you Joe

However, warnings have been issued for Scotty/NI for tues, so thats a little suprising they have not included the north west.

Patience NWS! Fingers crossed the warnings are issued tomorrow/Monday 

[Chris.R]

Met text forecast. 

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Rain and gales will clear on Monday, bringing much colder weather with frequent showers through Tuesday and Wednesday. These will be squally and often wintry with hail and thunder possible.

 

 I’d say that’s about right. 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Met text forecast. 

Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:

Rain and gales will clear on Monday, bringing much colder weather with frequent showers through Tuesday and Wednesday. These will be squally and often wintry with hail and thunder possible.

 

 I’d say that’s about right. 

Yes and absolutely no mention whatsoever of snow, even to higher elevations. Letalone accumulating snow.

Which kind of explains no warnings- if they saw reason to issue warnings im sure they would have done,given tues is 3 days away only..pennines to work etc, so im thinking we might be being a tad optimistic - even for higher elevations now.

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes and absolutely no mention whatsoever of snow, even to higher elevations. Letalone accumulating snow.

 

If it doesn’t snow at higher elevations next week in our region then I will run around naked through the city centre.

Stop putting so much faith in these trivial bits of information!!!! 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

If it doesn’t snow at higher elevations next week in our region then I will run around naked through the city centre.

Stop putting so much faith in these trivial bits of information!!!! 

No worries mate- we will see.

[Thunder Snow]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

No worries mate- we will see.

It has to happen the daily express have forecast it 

[severe snowstorm]

The Peak District forecast for Tues. Altitude issues?

 

Tuesday 16 January 2018

Sunrise: 08:15    Sunset: 16:20 

Moon phase: New 

Cold, bright and blustery, with westerly gale-force gusts and further showers, falling as snow above around 200 metres to bring accumulations of a few centimetres in places. Significant windchill at all levels

[Joe Bloggs]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No worries mate- we will see.

We will of course see, but I honestly cannot see how it’s possible to NOT see snow over high ground with this setup. It would defy the laws of physics IMO. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_78_2.png

For low ground, including my patch, yes there’s the chance of sleet/rain, but with any elevation, you’ll be fine.

People need to chill. 

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Joe Bloggs

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

We will of course see, but I honestly CANNOT see it’s possible to not see snow over high ground with this setup. It would defy the laws of physics IMO. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_78_2.png

For low ground, including my patch, yes there’s the chance of sleet/rain, but with any elevation, you’ll be fine.

People need to chill. 

 

TBF joe your are quoting GFS there- the ukmo uppers are not as low on their model-

tues night.

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

TBF joe your are quoting GFS there- the ukmo uppers are not as low on their model-

tues night.

Yep you’re right I’m putting a lot of faith in the GFS. It has been the most consistent in the run up to this spell and I tend to find it fairly accurate with parameters such as upper air temps at this range (only anecdotal evidence). 

If it’s completely wrong, then my comments are too. Bear in mind though that GFS has led the way with this spell, and ECM has modified down its 850’s in line with the GFS. 

[Chris.R]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes and absolutely no mention whatsoever of snow, even to higher elevations. Letalone accumulating snow.

Which kind of explains no warnings- if they saw reason to issue warnings im sure they would have done,given tues is 3 days away only..pennines to work etc, so im thinking we might be being a tad optimistic - even for higher elevations now.

 

 They never mention snow specifically in these setups always just wintry showers. Name me one occasion when they did.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Chris.R said:

 They never mention snow specifically in these setups always just wintry showers. Name me one occasion when they did.

they have for NI and Scotland ?

[More Runs Needed]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBF joe your are quoting GFS there- the ukmo uppers are not as low on their model-

tues night.

What about the ECM? Are they not showing any possibilities of snow and would the METO ignore them?

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Dkeane3 said:

What about the ECM? Are they not showing any possibilities of snow and would the METO ignore them?

Not sure..

Guess we will find out soon tho