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North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston
4 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

I think the convective showers are nailed on, the only issue is the boundary of snow, is it going to snow on the coast etc?  The favourable parameters seem to be holding up, yes the uppers aren't as good as December but the SSTs are lower and there are other factors more in our favour. The wind will blow more showers across the region but also it will mix up temperatures up there too so not as cold on the ground as lighter winds. Like many have said, I reckon there will be more organised areas of precipitation that will swing across the region, that mixed with a LOT of energy up there could result in some exciting falls. I love it when the sky goes black and it just pelts down with snow covering everything in seconds...I feel this set up is prime for that.

...As for near the coast, it needs to be perfect for that, and this isn't.  But if I lived 20 miles inland or 200m asl, I'd be very excited.

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

Much of the talk in the model thread is about the potentially severe winds from that storm due later in the week rather than snow.

for us though 90mph winds on the top of many hours of heavy snow and conditions get even more special.

and still the BBC and Met O are downplaying next weeks weather, something will have to give shortly.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
7 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Much of the talk in the model thread is about the potentially severe winds from that storm due later in the week rather than snow.

for us though 90mph winds on the top of many hours of heavy snow and conditions get even more special.

and still the BBC and Met O are downplaying next weeks weather, something will have to give shortly.

 

Yes ian they really dont seem at all concerned about snow at all!!

Iam very concerned about that low tho...

Really the only positive about it is it should blow thru very quickly.

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
  • Weather Preferences: LP - Horizontal Drizzle - Nice Blizzards
  • Location: Fenland Fylde.The same village as Duncan Iceglide.
13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes ian they really dont seem at all concerned about snow at all!!

Iam very concerned about that low tho...

Really the only positive about it is it should blow thru very quickly.

 

Yes.

Potential bottoming out at 976mb Thursday aft.

I'd be getting the sheep in on the Pennines and Dales uplands.

airpressure.thumb.png.d68278bf3b238c8a375fe63db11735ff.png

Edited by Iceaxecrampon
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

Need that low to go through the South, preferably Northern France. 

Edited by Spah1
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

I think Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday will be the peak for snow in our region.

Away from the coast just about anywhere could get accumulations, even to lower levels IMO.

This air is cold! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_84_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

So were are we now? Snow showers still set to affect the hills by Tues am, gradually turning increasingly wintry for many parts of the region through the day and evening (hail, graupel, sleet & snow).

66-574UK.thumb.GIF.458a7ef683c92c9e35e59328fa518ef1.GIF75-574UK.thumb.GIF.5be6289a0e53fa1d28fdef2294d1e0e8.GIF84-574UK.thumb.GIF.5ccc21b999b19d8414cb04e6cb9ccc9d.GIF

The best chance of snow near the coast from the showers I feel will be Tues eve as a wedge of -8 uppers approach.

84-7UK.thumb.GIF.0df8efbb4d1c15dcc2403df0d2f3f2e0.GIF

Wednesday far more complicated with that low coming in from the West, latest track has it further North than previous days however not convinced it will be that far North when it comes through. Could be rain, could be snow, could be snow to rain back to snow. After that turning colder again.

108-7UK.thumb.GIF.4ad0f33eb1d7d090f95fbebaf7fba7f2.GIF114-7UK.thumb.GIF.8fb25fc1054d5124679fed84bb4f90ea.GIF114-574UK.thumb.GIF.c2f3a5a1d916cf4fce8b87e5ee532675.GIF

All in all still a fantastic week coming up! :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
19 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I think Tuesday evening and overnight into Wednesday will be the peak for snow in our region.

Away from the coast just about anywhere could get accumulations, even to lower levels IMO.

This air is cold! 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_84_2.png

Agreed!

Fingers crossed joe..have to say it looks great after the low has gone thru...thur/fri as the colder swings back in..

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
21 hours ago, Snowmusic said:

I live in Bolton but we tend to get lumped in with manchester in forecasts even though our weather is usually noticeably colder during cold spells. But my Meto app and and other app are both still saying rain until Friday. I’m finding it hard to believe that will be right? 

Im in Horwich just near the jolly crofters pub I'm 198m asl.

Anything south of the Bolton town centre can be classed as low ground 300 feet 

Head North, East and west out of the centre and you get  heights from 450- 700 feet above sea level. 

Where in Bolton are you? 

Ps.. head to Bromley Cross and Turton areas of the town and I think they are 800- 900 feet above sea level 

Edited by Winter Hill
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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed!

Fingers crossed joe..have to say it looks great after the low has gone thru...thur/fri as the colder swings back in..

I'm hoping this runner will edge south this time lol 

Could be heavy snow or if it keeps north I will be getting my canoe out 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed!

Fingers crossed joe..have to say it looks great after the low has gone thru...thur/fri as the colder swings back in..

Yep gonna be an interesting week mate. ?

I have to say I’m annoyed by this low - if it wasn’t for this we’d be looking at a week of uninterrupted polar W’NW’lies.

Hardly surprising though given such a strong jet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
4 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Hey?

You got cold air over a "warm" sea, That results in instability and convection. This is winter, recall your basics, weak convection inland because of sun is "weak" to heat land. In summer, it's the opposite, sun heats land quicker because it's "stronger" than water hence why showers inland develop and often the waters are clear of convection.

Many times I've seen showers develop inland in winter after showing an evaporative nature as the coast is not as unusual as you might assume. 

the GFS could be exaggerating the  low nature of the dewpoints however. I can assure you however it is very rare to get showers here when temperature and dewpoint have an 8 degree difference. Again these differences may be exaggerated though.

I'm sure the Irish sea will be active but the relatively high temperatures/low dps differential around the coast could cause issues with loss of intensity of showers. 

But at the end of day there could be more favourable conditions with higher dewpoints and lower temperatures..

 

Edited by SP1986
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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

SST watch. 

 Crosby is apparently still at 6.7°C today, 0.9°C below the long-term average. 

I am thinking though that it may only have a resolution of 1°F which is why it jumped so far down the other day from  7.2°C (45°F) to 6.7°C (44°F) and has then stayed the same. It will probably go to 6.1°C, 43°F in a few days. It is the NOAA satellite data so maybe they only go in  1 °F  resolution. 

Edited by Chris.R
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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
Just now, Chris.R said:

SST watch. 

 Crosby is apparently still at 6.7°C today, 0.9°C below the long-term average. 

I am thinking though that it may only have a resolution of 1°F which is why it jumped so far down the other day from  7.2°C (45°F) to 6.7°C (44°F) and has then stayed the same. It will probably go to 6.1°C, 43°F in a few days. It is the NOAA satellite data maybe they only go in  1 °F  resolution. 

The upcoming wind direction is awful for you to be honest. .. it's even worse for me in terms of marginality. If heavy showers fall, hail will be the order of the day here.. it always happens around the coast in these setups.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Big upgrade of 850s and thicknesses from the 6Z for Tuesday night. Looking good even for here now for a few hours.

Wednesday night‘s runner is nice and further north now, although it does bring a warm sector, but I’m just concerned about keeping those off-shore winds, that’s all that matters to me at this point.

 

 Thursday night interesting again as  850s and fitnesses lower again after the runner. 

 

Friday night still looking very good as winds veer NNW. .  

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Position of that low GFS, UKMO, ECM

114-515UK.thumb.GIF.dc6a39f9265b8efc9c76cd150a43c352.GIFU120-515UK.thumb.GIF.df7a40460b03751f6d252e38442f9b38.GIFECU1-120.GIF.thumb.png.755769eadbbb7181549038ad3b9979b6.png

Let's hope it's further south and snow on the northern flank for all :good:

Edited by Day 10
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Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

Keeping a VERY close eye on weather developments this week, especially concerning that modeled low-system which has the potential to bring severe gales across the NW and North. Meanwhile the SPINE Race is underway with the 'challengers' setting off first this morning. Already the leaders approaching Wessenden. I feel more sorry for the folks starting off tomorrow and will be running the length of the Pennine Way night and day for the next 10 days.

http://live.thespinerace.com/

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Cape and LI forecast for -1 in the Irish sea for Tuesday night

84-505UK.GIF?13-6

Anyone have an idea what this could mean?

 

I’ve got some -2 at times all week which is what you want to see for good lightning and large hail. Looks about the same instability as December with a few hundred J of CAPE so i’m expecting lightning to be quite frequent. 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
18 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

The upcoming wind direction is awful for you to be honest. .. it's even worse for me in terms of marginality. If heavy showers fall, hail will be the order of the day here.. it always happens around the coast in these setups.

 I know that :-) I wrote a post about my thoughts yesterday. 

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Posted
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frosty nights, thunderstorms and the odd gale
  • Location: Near Northwich, Cheshire, 75m asl

Certainly an interesting week of weather coming up. At the moment, looks like the worst of the wind is likely to be overnight/early hours of Thursday. Subject to change of course. Hopefully plenty of snow showers before and after the mid week storm.

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Posted
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heat and winter cold, and a bit of snow when on offer
  • Location: Bacup Lancashire, 1000ft up in the South Pennines

Should we be worried about the Met O reluctance to put up weather warnings for anyone south of the border.

yes the snow for our region was not due to arrive until Tuesday but Scotland and NI. are now under a warning for all day Tuesday but us.....zilch.

has it been put back, downgraded or postponed through lack of interest or are the Met on the brink of seriously underestimating what is lurking over the horizon.

i hope it’s the latter but knowing our luck, suspect one of the others.

even Thursdays storm track looks like it will be the worst possible one for ourselves, further north and we get the peak of the winds but likely a snow to rain event, further south and it is less wind but a lot more chance of getting and keeping heavy snow, current most likely track we miss out the best chances of both wind and snow and end up in a breezy and wet mild sector.

still time for changes but I went out this morning feeling that we were on the cusp of something very rare and special but come home to that defeat from the jaws of victory feeling.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Should we be worried about the Met O reluctance to put up weather warnings for anyone south of the border.

yes the snow for our region was not due to arrive until Tuesday but Scotland and NI. are now under a warning for all day Tuesday but us.....zilch.

has it been put back, downgraded or postponed through lack of interest or are the Met on the brink of seriously underestimating what is lurking over the horizon.

i hope it’s the latter but knowing our luck, suspect one of the others.

even Thursdays storm track looks like it will be the worst possible one for ourselves, further north and we get the peak of the winds but likely a snow to rain event, further south and it is less wind but a lot more chance of getting and keeping heavy snow, current most likely track we miss out the best chances of both wind and snow and end up in a breezy and wet mild sector.

still time for changes but I went out this morning feeling that we were on the cusp of something very rare and special but come home to that defeat from the jaws of victory feeling.

 

I am getting concerned- i would have thought there would have been warnings by now.

knowing our luck the only warning will be for wind and rain.

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Posted
  • Location: moorside, Oldham, Greater Manchester
  • Location: moorside, Oldham, Greater Manchester

Loving amtge possibility of some good snow next week but how come the met office and bbc etc aren’t to excited about anything but showers 

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