North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[captaincroc]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats actually really good news- thats cold, if its accurate..

Yeah and will only cool more during the strong cold winds this week.

I'm not saying we are going to be snowed in this week but it's definitely an exciting week with lots of potential

[WillinGlossop]

5 minutes ago, Spurry said:

Oh god not Eno , she's awful, how the hell she is presenting weather is beyond me ..totally clueless, and where the flip is Combria 

 

She’s at least enthusiastic about snow.... Diane is eggghhhhh..... 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, captaincroc said:

Yeah and will only cool more during the strong cold winds this week.

I'm not saying we are going to be snowed in this week but it's definitely an exciting week with lots of potential

You have decent altitude there- not far off 600 feet- that should help

[captaincroc]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You have decent altitude there- not far off 600 feet- that should help

Yeah, moved from Crewe a few years ago and you can definitely tell. Snow sticks a lot easier up here! haha.  I think Oldham etc will do better as the winds might be a tad too westerly for me, this is show up on the snow forecasts. 

[WillinGlossop]

I know gfs but 40-60cm in places.... nice to see he charts.... ott yes.....

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

I know gfs but 40-60cm in places.... nice to see he charts.... ott yes.....

That looks like Greater manchester to the coast sees a LOT of precip!!

If that holds true i would expect amber warnings for places with altitude- 

[damianslaw]

41 minutes ago, Borei said:

Okay thanks NWS. 

I think local knowledge and experience is often a better guide than an app. 

Out of interest, did anyone west of M6 get anything worthwhile out of December? 

 

 

We managed a couple of inches on 29 December, but that was from a stalling slider front. However, I think the rule for Cumbria isn't west of M6 but more north of A590 and west of 10 miles from the coast.

Hoping for some decent snowfall next week, synoptics looks very good, evaporative cooling should kick in, homegrown convection off the Irish Sea as well. Fells will see some significant snowfall, and very limited chance of thaw.

[chicken soup]

1 minute ago, damianslaw said:

We managed a couple of inches on 29 December, but that was from a stalling slider front. However, I think the rule for Cumbria isn't west of M6 but more north of A590 and west of 10 miles from the coast.

Hoping for some decent snowfall next week, synoptics looks very good, evaporative cooling should kick in, homegrown convection off the Irish Sea as well. Fells will see some significant snowfall, and very limited chance of thaw.

How do you see lancashire and the rest of the region faring damien...i fear the worst here in blackburn only 80mtrs above sea level.

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

How do you see lancashire and the rest of the region faring damien...i fear the worst here in blackburn only 80mtrs above sea level.

In showery airstreams it always comes down to where the showers decide to penetrate, however, we have the added benefit of very cold uppers crossing the relatively warm Sea which should aid convection, and showers could appear almost anywhere, I'm expecting at least one or two frontal/trough features to cross the whole region and this should increase the chance of widespread snowfall to most places, coastal areas may be a bit marginal though. 

[Chris.R]

Another slider going south again. All in the mod thread praying for it to go further south and I’m reading and just thinking no don’t, Please not again! 

[Winter Hill]

18z has the slider further south... I'm getting a deja vu feeling 

[Chris.R]

21 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

We managed a couple of inches on 29 December, but that was from a stalling slider front. However, I think the rule for Cumbria isn't west of M6 but more north of A590 and west of 10 miles from the coast.

Hoping for some decent snowfall next week, synoptics looks very good, evaporative cooling should kick in, homegrown convection off the Irish Sea as well. Fells will see some significant snowfall, and very limited chance of thaw.

 I got two occasions of  five minutes of falling snow on the  9th. Also half an hour of heavy snow from evaporative cooling  which gave a dusting on the 15th but in a slightly different set up with -3 850s. . 

[wrightc23]

9 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Another slider going south again. All in the mod thread praying for it to go further south and I’m reading and just thinking no don’t, Please not again! 

About time they rename that thread accurately to the 'South East Model Forecast' thread and move it to the regional section.

[Joe Bloggs]

8 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

18z has the slider further south... I'm getting a deja vu feeling 

I think we should forget about the slider.. or at the very least see it as a temporary annoyance which gets in the way of the polar WNW’ly. 

Slider or no slider (yes, it’ll probably go south), we have an entire week of cold WNW’ly winds, and the 18z has removed a lot of the marginality, even at lower levels.

A very cold and snowy run for the NW. Hilly areas will get absolutely buried. 

[cheshire snow]

9 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

18z has the slider further south... I'm getting a deja vu feeling 

It is not a slider its a runner,slider goes from NW to SE and if cold is your thing

The faster it goes SE into Europe the better.

C.S. 

[Winter Hill]

4 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I think we should forget about the slider.. or at the very least see it as a temporary annoyance which gets in the way of the polar WNW’ly. 

Slider or no slider (yes, it’ll probably go south), we have an entire week of cold WNW’ly winds, and the 18z has removed a lot of the marginality, even at lower levels.

A very cold and snowy run for the NW. Hilly areas will get absolutely buried. 

One thing is the WNW'ly winds will have Greater Manchester in the firing line.

NNW'ly and I'll be watching south Manchester and Cheshire take a pasting 

[Spah1]

NWS if you mention altitude one more time I swear to god!!

i’m 90m asl. 

If it’s rain i’m not going to be happy. 

House may have to go on the market.  

[Joe Bloggs]

2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

NWS if you mention altitude one more time I swear to god!!

i’m 90m asl. 

If it’s rain i’m not going to be happy. 

House may have to go on the market.  

He’s obsessed with altitude. ?

If the 18z is accurate then altitude won’t matter - if you’re away from the coast then it’ll snow, even places like lowland Manchester IMO. 

[Joe Bloggs]

8 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

One thing is the WNW'ly winds will have Greater Manchester in the firing line.

NNW'ly and I'll be watching south Manchester and Cheshire take a pasting 

The winds look direct westerly to me, for most of the time. Good for much of the region.. especially the Bolton/Blackburn areas. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Joe Bloggs

[WillinGlossop]

Just now, Spah1 said:

NWS if you mention altitude one more time I swear to god!!

i’m 90m asl. 

If it’s rain i’m not going to be happy. 

House may have to go on the market.  

If you can and care enough about snow move to somewhere higher.... I moved from Kent for a bit of a snow fix.... never been disappointed in nearly five years being at or above 300m.... usually at least one snowfall of 15-20cm... max 28cm a few years ago... think it was Jan/feb 2015.... similar set up heavy convective showers with thunder and lightening and thunder snow.... 

[Spah1]

I’m usually just far enough out of Preston which really is as bad as it gets for snow. 

I’m just on the edge of the high terrain. 

Often I get snow/sleet whilst my folks in Leyland get rain. 

Fingers crossed. 

[Spah1]

5 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

He’s obsessed with altitude. ?

If the 18z is accurate then altitude won’t matter - if you’re away from the coast then it’ll snow, even places like lowland Manchester IMO. 

Just irritates me why the bbc has me down for 4 degrees and rain. 

[Day 10]

26 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 I got two occasions of  five minutes of falling snow on the  9th. Also half an hour of heavy snow from evaporative cooling  which gave a dusting on the 15th but in a slightly different set up with -3 850s. . 

There's Will's snowfall, then there's ours! 

[WillinGlossop]

Just a question.... if you look at a bbc forecast for your location under observations on the lower right hand side what does it say the location is where your forecast is made?

[Spah1]

3 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Just a question.... if you look at a bbc forecast for your location under observations on the lower right hand side what does it say the location is where your forecast is made?

Crosby