North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Chris.R said:

Right then. Haven’t caught up with this thread yet so these are just my initial thoughts. I have no shame in saying that this is a rather imby post because it has to be as the coastal strip will be experiencing different conditions to inland next week regardless of what happens. 

 The first thing that strikes me is the impressive lapse rates that we will have from Tuesday morning onwards,with 500 mbar temperatures constantly between -35 and -40; so potential for some very lively showers. Lightning will occur probably quite frequently around the area, especially during the night and in the coldest pockets of air.

850 mbar temperatures do not seem to me to be conducive for coastal falling snow all the time, so I am only expecting to see snow in very heavy and/or prolonged showers. At the very least though I’m expecting a rarther interesting week of  convection with showers of hail, graupel and sleet, with wet snow at times.

Friday night looks interesting to me if forecasts continue to suggest winds veering northerly; I can see a snow event for the coast at that point. 

 In summary, I am not expecting any lying snow here except for possibly an hour or two here and there, although I expect coverings of hail and graupel to be rather persistent.  I do expect to see falling snow but only transiently.  Apart from that, looking forward to the convective potential and to reading other reports from across the region even though they will most likely make me jealous. :-) 

Quick one from me bit busy.

Spot on mate, pretty much agree with you on what will from from the sky around these parts. Maybe a better chance when nights falls. Interesting what you say on the SST's.

 

Snow Watch for the region.

Still consistently moving closer with time.

A bit further on, keep an eye out for a potential spell of snow Weds eve, no time to elaborate and it may well miss us but here it is.

 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Day 10

[captaincroc]

@CreweCold. You reckon the winds are just a bit too westerly for us?

[Snowmusic]

I live in Bolton but we tend to get lumped in with manchester in forecasts even though our weather is usually noticeably colder during cold spells. But my Meto app and and other app are both still saying rain until Friday. I’m finding it hard to believe that will be right? 

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, Snowmusic said:

I live in Bolton but we tend to get lumped in with manchester in forecasts even though our weather is usually noticeably colder during cold spells. But my Meto app and and other app are both still saying rain until Friday. I’m finding it hard to believe that will be right? 

Think altitude is a big player...app saying sleet and snow here until fri then dry and very cold..

Whats your altitude..:)

[Chris.R]

The apps are a huge pile of cr*p until 48 hours out, and then mostly just a somewhat smaller pile of cr*p after that! 

[Borei]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think altitude is a big player...app saying sleet and snow here until fri then dry and very cold..

Whats your altitude..:)

Which app NWS?

I live near Burnley at 220m.

My Meto app says rain too, apart from sleet on Tuesday night.

I usually ignore it though because it's really really poor in my experience. 

[northwestsnow]

34 minutes ago, Borei said:

Which app NWS?

I live near Burnley at 220m.

My Meto app says rain too, apart from sleet on Tuesday night.

I usually ignore it though because it's really really poor in my experience. 

The beeb one i was looking at..

220m ...you should get a decent dollop...

Ps the apps are hit n miss at this range tho..

[Day 10]

Down to t81 now for the first sign of snow showers for some.

Showers of hail, graupel, sleet & snow start to spread and grow in intensity, I fancy some lucky parts are going to do very well (can see Will jumping up & down). Should be fun for most whatever falls really, it's a belter of a Northwesterly!

Windchill.

There's that band of possible snow zipping across the more southern parts of the region again, one to definitely keep an eye on.

[Iceaxecrampon]

12z

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 hours ago, captaincroc said:

@CreweCold. You reckon the winds are just a bit too westerly for us?

Yeah a tad, but we might get lucky with embedded troughs etc

[Day 10]

 

[Chris.R]

Oh now GFS 12z showing winds backing off-shore Wednesday night as that little low crosses. This could be very very interesting if it occurs like that. My anticipation increasing now for next week. 

[WillinGlossop]

Netweather updated forecast going for 90cm. Hahaha ? yer right....

xcweather going for 48cm......

Edited January 12, 2018 by WillinGlossop

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Netweather updated forecast going for 90cm. Hahaha ? yer right....

xcweather going for 48cm......

I'd be happy with 1cm

[Snow free zone]

That update from the ukmet pretty much ties in with the forecasts they have been putting out for the last 24hrs or so. Looks like a case again of nothing to see here let's move on.  

[WillinGlossop]

Netweather forecast for Mossley 102cm ???

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Netweather forecast for Mossley 102cm ???

Mossley tameside?

[WillinGlossop]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Mossley tameside?

Yep haha don’t think it’ll be that much.... put in my friend who lives there’s postcode.... it’ll be like the alps if that happened.... she’ll be skiing to ASHTON to work....

Edited January 12, 2018 by WillinGlossop

[severe snowstorm]

12 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Netweather forecast for Mossley 102cm ???

Bring it on!! Seriously though, I'd settle for 10% of that here!

[Snowmusic]

Sorry been at work. We’re at 143m where we are. Possibly marginal but I am so hoping not. Agree about the apps but just trying to manage my own expectations after  overdosing on the model thread!!

[Had Worse]

My wife' a nurse and Tameside expect her to turn up regardless of the conditions. That' going to be an arduous walk of 11 miles round trip.

She'll get there just in time to set off home and vis versa.

Anyway, can't have Will stealing all the snow. I'll settle for 7" by early Thursday. 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Had Worse

[WillinGlossop]

5 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

My wife' a nurse and Tameside expect her to turn up regardless of the conditions. That' going to be an arduous walk of 11 miles round trip.

She'll get there just in time to set off home and vis versa.

Anyway, can't have Will stealing all the snow. I'll settle for 7" by early Thursday. 

 

5 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

My wife' a nurse and Tameside expect her to turn up regardless of the conditions. That' going to be an arduous walk of 11 miles round trip.

She'll get there just in time to set off home and vis versa.

Anyway, can't have Will stealing all the snow. I'll settle for 7" by early Thursday. 

Loving the over the top automated netweather forecast.... no way is there ever in my lifetime going to be 90-105 cm here or Mossley.....

i think a foot maybe on snake pass tops/ kinder/ bleaklow.....

[Bury88]

I would say anyone over 100M is going to do quite well out of this but we will see.

[severe snowstorm]

Normally we seem to be chasing a small window of opportunity before wind direction veers/showers die out etc. However, next week looks like repeated days of opportunities. What could possibly go wrong.......lol

[iand61]

I like Jo Blyth on Granada but where the hell did she get that forecast from.

Tuesday and Wednesday giving a chance of a few wintry showers and graphics showing nothing but rain.

looks like it’s a case of sod the computer models and experts on Netweather and wait for the Ox or Eno to put the final nail in the coffin for our region.