North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Just now, CreweCold said:

It's about 75 miles further up the west Ireland coast than progged

Its also still moving ne. If it carries on, when it picots at 0100 it will already be here!! S

[Allseasons-Si]

Here is what i posted in the yorkie thread earlier

the ppn is a lot further north than the models suggest.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Here is what i posted in the yorkie thread earlier

the ppn is a lot further north than the models suggest.

 

Would be sensational if the models have all got this wrong at such a short lead time.

[SP1986]

Further north at this point doesn't necessarily mean good.. as it could induce a stronger angled slide, missing us completely.

But it may be beneficial too!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

It 

woukd seem the low isnt as intense or as far south as forcast

[Mokidugway]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Would be sensational if the models have all got this wrong at such a short lead time.

It's much further north , must be something there increasing ppn , cold air undercut maybe ??

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

There is a front over cardiff

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

It's much further north , must be something there increasing ppn , cold air undercut maybe ??

I have a feeling the modelling is overestimating the depth of cold over the UK for one. It's wet and hardly icy here. Last night was much icier.

[Mokidugway]

Just now, CreweCold said:

I have a feeling the modelling is overestimating the depth of cold over the UK for one. It's wet and hardly icy here. Last night was much icier.

It doesn't feel cold out btw I'm back on pudleduck 

[damianslaw]

Didn't see any snow showers during daylight hours as I had hoped, but alas have seen a snizzle of snow in recent hour or two, enough to coat roads with a fairy dusting. Might just squeeze another dusting in the coming hour or two, but then I think our chances of any snow tomorrow are slim, but things do often happen when least expected.

It will be cold though - an ice day is possible. 

My attention is turning to Thursday, where we might see some back edge snow from the frontal feature moving through, some cold air behind it. Fells should see quite a bit from that feature. The outlook next week bar about 24 hours is predominantly cold, with Cumbria locked in sub 528 dam air much of the time.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mokidugway said:

It doesn't feel cold out btw I'm back on pudleduck 

Yes just been in...welcome back

[Mokidugway]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes just been in...welcome back

Thanks bud ,  fun times aheed,lol

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Thanks bud ,  fun times aheed,lol

Don't start with the heed,it's well over my heed

[Mokidugway]

It's a cloudydaze thing lol

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

It's a cloudydaze thing lol

Cloudyheed

[Mokidugway]

lol Cloudys here up from Wales 

[Backtrack]

GFS 18Z has the Northern arm of this front nailed to the inch.

 

Game is well and truly over.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

GFS 18Z has the Northern arm of this front nailed to the inch.

 

Game is well and truly over.

Not completely. The angle of movement is different subtly. GFS has most of the energy pulling NW-SE whereas the front is still rapidly barrelling NE on the radar. Should mean that the northern boundary reaches Liverpool-Manchester at least.

Edited December 9, 2017 by CreweCold

[Backtrack]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Not completely. The angle of movement is different subtly. GFS has most of the energy pulling NW-SE whereas the front is still rapidly barrelling NE on the radar. Should mean that the northern boundary reaches Liverpool-Manchester at least.

Can't see it man. The only thing that's currently interesting me is the realization of why the Met Office has not taken the warning down for our area.

If you look at the northern extent of the front, the echos are still strong, there's no 'weak edges' so to speak. It's a very strong low, so even those on the northern most boundary still have a chance of a covering.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

4 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

GFS 18Z has the Northern arm of this front nailed to the inch.

 

Game is well and truly over.

Not really. Southern extent nearly on irish coast whereas 18z has it some miles away

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Backtrack said:

Can't see it man. The only thing that's currently interesting me is the realization of why the Met Office has not taken the warning down for our area.

If you look at the northern extent of the front, the echos are still strong, there's no 'weak edges' so to speak. It's a very strong low, so even those on the northern most boundary still have a chance of a covering.

We'll know by 2-3 O'clock

[Backtrack]

Let's just say it doesn't pivot (imagine). We would be buried.

[carl1980]

 Updated 40 mins ago not much changed

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

2 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

Let's just say it doesn't pivot (imagine). We would be buried.

Dont ramp yet!!! Jeez lol

[Backtrack]

3 minutes ago, carl1980 said:

 Updated 40 mins ago not much changed

But that doesn't correspond with their forecasts. This is literally human vs computer. WHY?!