North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[severe snowstorm]

6 minutes ago, Yorkshirepudding said:

Not at all D it's all about that low. ?

Its wether or not we just get snow on the leading edge and then turns to rain for a period before the cold air comes back giving snow and sleet showers again. Or wether it remains as snow at it passes. With the low lower than lastnight we have a better chance of this. But at the moment these models have it flying round like a kite lol. But it's definitely looking better and location has already upgraded twice today. 

It has been sinking Southwards on each GFS run today and now it is shallower, the worst of the predicted wind gusts have been watered down. If it keeps shifting South it could miss us altogether and give the mids another pasting!

[Weather-history]

It's even more notable on the 850pas, todays 12z mean and yesterday's 18z mean

[Yorkshirepudding]

3 minutes ago, Dexter said:

It has been sinking Southwards on each GFS run today and now it is shallower, the worst of the predicted wind gusts have been watered down. If it keeps shifting South it could miss us altogether and give the mids another pasting!

True only time will tell. Still along way out yet?

[severe snowstorm]

Just now, Yorkshirepudding said:

True only time will tell. Still along way out yet?

True. On the plus side, the further South it shifts, the less mild incursion we have and more chance of keeping the snow we (hopefully) have on the ground by then.

[SP1986]

Chris did you hear thunder about 10 minutes ago? I heard a low eerie rumble that was reminiscent of an approaching storm

[Darren Bown]

Surprised I have snow forecast all tomorrow evening.

[Deep Snow please]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

You have decent altitude there- the ONLy issue is you are further west than me by a good 30 miles- that wont help.

And in a city centre to boot (I know we're a town technically but we have a cathedral and a big enough population so might as well be city centre). 

 

18 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Take a look at the 18z mean of yesterday  and compare it to the current 12z. You can see it is further south hence there are more ensembles in the 12z having it tracker further south.

Ah, I think I understand now. Thanks.

 

Anyway, I've just been out and there's some seriously ominous looking clouds on the horizon out towards Preston/Chorley.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[pip22]

Just heard a bit of hail coming down.

[Deep Snow please]

I can never remember whether Cumbria falls here or the North and North East thread (although that used to Far North when I lived there and deffo included Cumbria) but Alston seems to be in line for nearly 50 hours of unbroken snowfall according to the BBC app...

[WillinGlossop]

Netweather forecast 35mm tonight torrential snow....

[Chris.R]

 Just catching up with the thread, but gfs 12Z is an upgrade for thicknesses and 850s on Tuesday evening. I’m now thinking we may get to see some falling snow after all here on the coast during Tuesday night.  Also an upgrade on the CAPE and LI starting tonight. 

[Chris.R]

1 hour ago, SP1986 said:

I would be more inclined to think the GFS 12z is an anomaly than a groundbreaking change. It looks too progressive.. I think I'll err on the side of caution with this one and assume as per previous runs. Even so even with a southwards correction it'll still be too marginal for coastal areas.. but marginally better inland

 We can get to be north of the low‘s centre then we will get an off-shore wind for a time which changes the game for us completely. 

[shadowfax]

Ive had sleet here, the advantage of velux windows except you get a stiff neck!!

[chiffer]

1 hour ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

Did you know that water goes cloudy before it snows? So if you have a bucket of water in tour garden and notice its gone cloudy, then it will snow soon.

I expect I can find water in the desert with a couple of sticks too.

[Chris.R]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

This reminds me a bit of mid December 2011, anyone remember that one?

This was GFS 0z  and 12z on 11th December 2011 for 5 days time

When it came to the 16th December, lol

 That was my only snow of the winter that day. I remember it being totally unexpected. 

[Yorkshirepudding]

28 minutes ago, Dexter said:

 

2 minutes ago, chiffer said:

I expect I can find water in the desert with a couple of sticks too.

?

[itsnowjoke]

5 minutes ago, chiffer said:

I expect I can find water in the desert with a couple of sticks too.

 I've never heard that one before

[Deep Snow please]

So here's the round up for my location as to when it becomes snow only with no rain/sleet mixed in.

 

Netweather - 9pm tonight through to Wednesday night

BBC - 5pm tomorrow through to 11pm tomorrow

Met Office - 5pm tomorrow through to 11pm tomorrow

Weather.com - 4pm tomorrow through to 2am tomorrow night.

Lets hope Netweather is right.

[Darren Bown]

just had quite a bit of hail. It’s now pouring with rain. It’s on the change lol.

Edited January 15, 2018 by Darren Bown

[chiffer]

3 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

 I've never heard that one before

On next weeks episode I will let you know how you can cause lightning by angering the gods.

[WillinGlossop]

11 minutes ago, shadowfax said:

Ive had sleet here, the advantage of velux windows except you get a stiff neck!!

I’ve got two velux on landing and one in kitchen.... my snowometers hehe ? ❄️ ❄️❄️❄️

Edited January 15, 2018 by WillinGlossop

[Chris.R]

Might be worth keeping an eye on the apps to spot any change in wind Direction which would indicate the model they use is sending that low further south. If you see any easterly component at any time with an anticlockwise (backing) progression then you know that the centre of the low is south of your location. 

[Barmada_Casten]

How well I fair here in south Lakes? Amblesdie/Windermere area, we have barely had  a mention in this thread! Seems to be dominated by the usual Lancashire bias.

 

[iand61]

A bit of sleet mixed in with the heavy rain on the way home but the car temperature was saying 5c so uppers must be looking favourable.

just need the surface temperatures to drop a couple of degrees and we should start to see more snow in the showers, that’s providing the showers are actually about.

i’m more confident now than I was earlier last night and expecting to see snow on the ground up here tomorrow morning and the app graphics for Tuesday currently show snow throughout........please no downgrades.

[Chris.R]

38 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

Chris did you hear thunder about 10 minutes ago? I heard a low eerie rumble that was reminiscent of an approaching storm

No I didn’t. It could have been hail roar?