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North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards


BlueHedgehog074

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl

Just a kink...looks to exit near the wash. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester

Steady on.... any more 6hrly drastic southerly corrections could put our area out of the game by Thursday....but I can't see it going so far south it misses us.

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Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

I would be more inclined to think the GFS 12z is an anomaly than a groundbreaking change. It looks too progressive.. I think I'll err on the side of caution with this one and assume as per previous runs. Even so even with a southwards correction it'll still be too marginal for coastal areas.. but marginally better inland

Edited by SP1986
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
1 minute ago, dodgeredee said:

Steady on.... any more 6hrly drastic southerly corrections could put our area out of the game by Thursday....but I can't see it going so far south it misses us.

just a tweak south of 30 miles and sweet spoy ahoy.

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Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl

Really should assume this is an outlier after constant runs showing a severe storm...

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
3 minutes ago, Dkeane3 said:

Really should assume this is an outlier after constant runs showing a severe storm...

 

6 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

I would be more inclined to think the GFS 12z is an anomaly than a groundbreaking change. It looks too progressive.. I think I'll err on the side of caution with this one and assume as per previous runs. Even so even with a southwards correction it'll still be too marginal for coastal areas.. but marginally better inland

The Low being modeled less sever and further south is across the board so far.

This is not a one Model aberration 

Edited by frosty ground
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Posted
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
  • Location: Oldham, Gtr Manchester
2 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

I would be more inclined to think the GFS 12z is an anomaly than a groundbreaking change. It looks too progressive.. I think I'll err on the side of caution with this one and assume as per previous runs

Yes we can't presume this run will be the one that materialises on the day just because it's showing us what we'd like... it could be a rogue run, but the low is giving the models a headache.  From 90mph storm to barely a leaf rustler.  Still a long way to go before it's pinned down.

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Posted
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Crisp Cold Days
  • Location: Addingham moorside West Yorkshire 2-250m
29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Would it be fair to say these southerly corrections if they happen will mean the colder air swings in quicker thurs..

I would say so yes also creating more chance of the rain turning to snow as colder air will be dragged deeper. 

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Gem further south as well

Always rated that model:D

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Clod snowy Winters
  • Location: St helens, warrington, widnes border

Must be said GFS had low not as deep yesterday aswell on 12z. That is a trend in my books. Its also further south. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL

I know I sound like a broken record but if it doesn’t snow tomorrow, then I give up.

you couldn’t really ask for a better setup. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_24_2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I know I sound like a broken record but if it doesn’t snow tomorrow, then I give up.

you couldn’t really ask for a better setup. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_24_2.png

your not a broken record joe- your posts are appreciated.. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
  • Location: Manchester City Centre, 31m ASL
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

your not a broken record joe- your posts are appreciated.. :)

Why thank you - the feeling is mutual! :-) 

Good luck! 

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