North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[chicken soup]

In fact it hardly looks like a storm at all....what the hells going on.

 

[northwestsnow]

GFS precip charts show LOTS of snow in this region over the next 36 hours

[frosty ground]

 Vs

Only slight corrections from now on please.

[Winter Hill]

Just a kink...looks to exit near the wash. 

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, frosty ground said:

 Vs

Only slight corrections from now on please.

[Weather-history]

Wind should be less of a problem on the 12z run

[itsnowjoke]

Got my wine decanting...

[itsnowjoke]

Wet snow they say on itv weather 

[dodge]

Steady on.... any more 6hrly drastic southerly corrections could put our area out of the game by Thursday....but I can't see it going so far south it misses us.

[SP1986]

I would be more inclined to think the GFS 12z is an anomaly than a groundbreaking change. It looks too progressive.. I think I'll err on the side of caution with this one and assume as per previous runs. Even so even with a southwards correction it'll still be too marginal for coastal areas.. but marginally better inland

Edited January 15, 2018 by SP1986

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, dodgeredee said:

Steady on.... any more 6hrly drastic southerly corrections could put our area out of the game by Thursday....but I can't see it going so far south it misses us.

just a tweak south of 30 miles and sweet spoy ahoy.

[More Runs Needed]

Really should assume this is an outlier after constant runs showing a severe storm...

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, Dkeane3 said:

Really should assume this is an outlier after constant runs showing a severe storm...

 

6 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

I would be more inclined to think the GFS 12z is an anomaly than a groundbreaking change. It looks too progressive.. I think I'll err on the side of caution with this one and assume as per previous runs. Even so even with a southwards correction it'll still be too marginal for coastal areas.. but marginally better inland

The Low being modeled less sever and further south is across the board so far.

This is not a one Model aberration 

Edited January 15, 2018 by frosty ground

[dodge]

2 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

I would be more inclined to think the GFS 12z is an anomaly than a groundbreaking change. It looks too progressive.. I think I'll err on the side of caution with this one and assume as per previous runs

Yes we can't presume this run will be the one that materialises on the day just because it's showing us what we'd like... it could be a rogue run, but the low is giving the models a headache.  From 90mph storm to barely a leaf rustler.  Still a long way to go before it's pinned down.

[Yorkshirepudding]

29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Would it be fair to say these southerly corrections if they happen will mean the colder air swings in quicker thurs..

I would say so yes also creating more chance of the rain turning to snow as colder air will be dragged deeper. 

[cheshire snow]

Gem further south as well

Always rated that model

C.S

[itsnowjoke]

I have hail

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Must be said GFS had low not as deep yesterday aswell on 12z. That is a trend in my books. Its also further south. 

[Weather-history]

This reminds me a bit of mid December 2011, anyone remember that one?

This was GFS 0z  and 12z on 11th December 2011 for 5 days time

When it came to the 16th December, lol

[Joe Bloggs]

I know I sound like a broken record but if it doesn’t snow tomorrow, then I give up.

you couldn’t really ask for a better setup. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_24_2.png

[frosty ground]

Slider Gate take 55

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I know I sound like a broken record but if it doesn’t snow tomorrow, then I give up.

you couldn’t really ask for a better setup. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_24_2.png

your not a broken record joe- your posts are appreciated..

[karyo]

The GFS is close to giving another slider drama for the weekend! Cold weather extended. 

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Gem further south as well

Always rated that model

C.S

[Joe Bloggs]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

your not a broken record joe- your posts are appreciated..

Why thank you - the feeling is mutual! :-) 

Good luck!