North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[northwestsnow]

Edit infact euro4 brings -8 uppers in tomorrow night...

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i agree!!

Its almost like the pros are hoping for last min downgrades- everything points to a snowy day tomorrow.

Wonder if we can squeeze in ONE snowy day before the horrid low ruins everything???

Indeed, the horrid low may literally ruin everything given the possible gusts. GFS has worst of it tracking through Cumbria and North Lancs but track obviously still not nailed. Fortunately, seems set to hit overnight.

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep, the text sounds good Ian

I would expect snow to fall to low levels tomorrow- euro4 has uppers of -7 across the entire region - and negative dews- 

The warnings will be updated this morning- fingers crossed..

Well i’m not Ian but I agree. ?

[Decemberof2010]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes i agree!!

Its almost like the pros are hoping for last min downgrades- everything points to a snowy day tomorrow.

Wonder if we can squeeze in ONE snowy day before the horrid low ruins everything???

Hi NWS. A bit quiet in the Yorkshire thread.  Apps look a bit disappointing for Leeds. What's your view for us?

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Edit infact euro4 brings -8 uppers in tomorrow night...

Upgrade!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Chris.R said:

Well i’m not Ian but I agree. ?

haha sorry chris.

Are you going to post your thoughts later?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Hi NWS. A bit quiet in the Yorkshire thread.  Apps look a bit disappointing for Leeds. What's your view for us?

With the strength of the flow i would not be at all suprised if west yorks gets snow showers through tomorrow.

 

[Chris.R]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

haha sorry chris.

Are you going to post your thoughts later?

Well imby nothing has really changed since my post the other day, but I will do. I will of course keep reporting my current conditions over the next few days as well. :-) 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Well imby nothing has really changed since my post the other day, but I will do. I will of course keep reporting my current conditions over the next few days as well. :-) 

Nice one chris ..

BTW the uppers are -7/-8 on euro4  for tomorrow evening/night.

And the dew points are negative.

Surely it doesn't get much better off a westerly!!

Forgot to say i think the 850s have upgraded overnight

 

Edited January 15, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Chris.R]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nice one chris ..

BTW the uppers are -7/-8 on euro4  for tomorrow evening/night.

And the dew points are negative.

Surely it doesn't get much better off a westerly!!

 

 True, Tuesday night is looking much better. 

[northwestsnow]

The BBC app is absolutely laughable.

It has snow here tomorrow morning at 1 degree.

And has sleet tomorrow afternoon with the temp at 0 degrees.

Hello BBC app, if temps are zero, dews are negative, and uppers are -7/-8 at 200m above sea level it will be snow..

[cheshire snow]

Just back from a conference call at work and the latest for the Manchester area is a s follows

Tomorrow showers are expected to turn increasingly to snow from tomorrow afternoon and the over night period into Wednesday morning.

The Wednesday night into Thursday storm is still open to question due to  the uncertainty of the track but current forecast is for Heavy snow over the Pennines with the

snow line around 200m (but again must stress very much uncertainty)on the track of the low,not much detail on Thursday into Friday but suggestions of sleet and snow showers

continuing.

Like to point out this is genuine and not hope casting and obviously subject to change

Enjoy your day

C.S  

[severe snowstorm]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The BBC app is absolutely laughable.

It has snow here tomorrow morning at 1 degree.

And has sleet tomorrow afternoon with the temp at 0 degrees.

Hello BBC app, if temps are zero, dews are negative, and uppers are -7/-8 at 200m above sea level it will be snow..

Brace yourself for that cold hard rain. You know, the type that can only fall in the North West under such conditions! 

[severe snowstorm]

2 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just back from a conference call at work and the latest for the Manchester area is a s follows

Tomorrow showers are expected to turn increasingly to snow from tomorrow afternoon and the over night period into Wednesday morning.

The Wednesday night into Thursday storm is still open to question due to  the uncertainty of the track but current forecast is for Heavy snow over the Pennines with the

snow line around 200m (but again must stress very much uncertainty)on the track of the low,not much detail on Thursday into Friday but suggestions of sleet and snow showers

continuing.

Like to point out this is genuine and not hope casting and obviously subject to change

Enjoy your day

C.S  

Great post CS, thanks.

[Lesley Johnson]

Interesting c.s x

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just back from a conference call at work and the latest for the Manchester area is a s follows

Tomorrow showers are expected to turn increasingly to snow from tomorrow afternoon and the over night period into Wednesday morning.

The Wednesday night into Thursday storm is still open to question due to  the uncertainty of the track but current forecast is for Heavy snow over the Pennines with the

snow line around 200m (but again must stress very much uncertainty)on the track of the low,not much detail on Thursday into Friday but suggestions of sleet and snow showers

continuing.

Like to point out this is genuine and not hope casting and obviously subject to change

Enjoy your day

C.S  

Sounds good , thanks CS

[Chris.R]

Gfs bit of an upgrade on Friday now with lower thicknesses and 850s with the flow lasting until Saturday morning. 

[Joe Bloggs]

43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nice one chris ..

BTW the uppers are -7/-8 on euro4  for tomorrow evening/night.

And the dew points are negative.

Surely it doesn't get much better off a westerly!!

Forgot to say i think the 850s have upgraded overnight

 

This supports my theory that GFS is better than ECM/MetO in terms of forecasting 850’s. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

This supports my theory that GFS is better than ECM/MetO in terms of forecasting 850’s. 

Indeed-

I'm really suprised EC/Euro4 have upgraded the uppers at this late stage but they have for sure.

I'm 100% with you Joe, if there is no snow tomorrow (even at low levels) we may as well give up on anything from the west/north west (uppers of -7/-8) - all our eggs will be in the easterly basket, and lets face it, they are now virtually extinct.

Looking at various forums i see others are beginning to express suprise there are still no weather warnings for our region, what are the metoffice playing at?

Esp for those who have traverse the pennines- ie commuters...

[Mountain Snow]

Return to default this morning, rain lashing the windows. Still good for snow tomorrow. 

Any thoughts on this storm tracking south? Still looking nasty for round here. 

[Chris.R]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Indeed-

I'm really suprised EC/Euro4 have upgraded the uppers at this late stage but they have for sure.

I'm 100% with you Joe, if there is no snow tomorrow (even at low levels) we may as well give up on anything from the west/north west (uppers of -7/-8) - all our eggs will be in the easterly basket, and lets face it, they are now virtually extinct.

Looking at various forums i see others are beginning to express suprise there are still no weather warnings for our region, what are the metoffice playing at?

Esp for those who have traverse the pennines- ie commuters...

 Give it until 11:30 and I think there will be. Yello for snow ice and wind. Merseyside will only be in the ice warning. They will miss the coast south of the Ribble off the wind one as well. Just my instincts. 

Edited January 15, 2018 by Chris.R

[Alister]

31 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Just back from a conference call at work and the latest for the Manchester area is a s follows

Tomorrow showers are expected to turn increasingly to snow from tomorrow afternoon and the over night period into Wednesday morning.

The Wednesday night into Thursday storm is still open to question due to  the uncertainty of the track but current forecast is for Heavy snow over the Pennines with the

snow line around 200m (but again must stress very much uncertainty)on the track of the low,not much detail on Thursday into Friday but suggestions of sleet and snow showers

continuing.

Like to point out this is genuine and not hope casting and obviously subject to change

Enjoy your day

C.S  

TfGM major incident room has been activated with all incident teams put on amber alert, this usually happens when they are pretty sure of major travel disruption. Wigan Councl have also been put on high alert standby for Leigh Guided Busway treatment including ploughing - first time I've known anything other than routine treatment. Also all TfGM contractors, Arbo's etc have been put on amber alert for emergency call outs, current time period  0000 Tuesday thru 1200 Friday. Looks like they sren't taking any risks!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 Give it until 11:30 and I think will be. Yello for snow ice and wind. Merseyside will only be in the ice warning. They will miss the coast south of the Ribble off the wind one as well. Just my instincts. 

We'll see

Up to now they are point blank refusing to put a warning out for even higher elevations...there are many people cross the pennines to work who might have to alter their travel plans.

 

2 minutes ago, Alister said:

TfGM major incident room has been activated with all incident teams put on amber alert, this usually happens when they are pretty sure of major travel disruption. Wigan Councl have also been put on high alert standby for Leigh Guided Busway treatment including ploughing - first time I've known anything other than routine treatment. Also all TfGM contractors, Arbo's etc have been put on amber alert for emergency call outs, current time period  0000 Tuesday thru 1200 Friday. Looks like they sren't taking any risks!

Interesting, thanks Alister..

Can someone contact the Metoffice warning department because they seem completely oblivious...

[Alister]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

We'll see

Up to now they are point blank refusing to put a warning out for even higher elevations...there are many people cross the pennines to work who might have to alter their travel plans.

 

Interesting, thanks Alister..

Can someone contact the Metoffice warning department because they seem completely oblivious...

No problem, not sure that they're just a bit wary of getting caught with their pants down (again).......time will tell, however emails are just staring to come in about updating passenger displays with early waring of travel disruption due to adverse weather. I'm meeting with maintenace contactors for the busway later so will see if any further updates then. Being an east/west route it sure gets some wind funneling on certain stretches!

[Chris.R]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We'll see

Up to now they are point blank refusing to put a warning out for even higher elevations...there are many people cross the pennines to work who might have to alter their travel plans.

 

Interesting, thanks Alister..

Can someone contact the Metoffice warning department because they seem completely oblivious...

They only seem to like issuing warnings after around 10 AM... obviously after the chief forecaster has had his 1st cup of coffee. 

Edited January 15, 2018 by Chris.R