North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

 

Looks good to me Kevin

Showers turning wintry by monday night as the 528 DAM line clears the region..

[severe snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks good to me Kevin

Showers turning wintry by monday night as the 528 DAM line clears the region..

Potential for a covering by Tuesday morning? Later Tuesday and into the overnight period probably provides best potential still.

[Spah1]

Stupid low now going through Scotland on the ECM. 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Dexter said:

Potential for a covering by Tuesday morning? Later Tuesday and into the overnight period probably provides best potential still.

Its only my opinion but i think showers will turn wintry overnight mon into tues , initially at altitude and then eventually lower down through tues and tue night.

Fingers crossed, any lying snow will get washed away wed evening as it stands but beggars cant be choosers and all that...

[Spah1]

Just got a feeling it’s turning into a non event. 

Even if we have lying snow that low will wash it all away! 

Anyway must stay positive ?

[iand61]

Standard winter is all i’m seeing from the latest charts and although the extended Met O update is sounding a bit more promising for snow than it was yesterday, it has only gone back to what is was showing over Christmas for early January and nothing came of that.

a damp squib but without the squib.

[captaincroc]

22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep, -7uppers and your altitude should see snow - the only issue for your area is the wind direction, it looks more w/wnw which would favour places a little further north.

But hopefully you will catch some beefy showers

Yeah I agree, we will miss most of the showers but on such strong winds I am expecting a few beefy ones to make it through. The way I see it is  on a normally westerly we still get showers anyways (as air is full of moisture) so hoping the same will be the case this time.

[Deep Snow please]

Yet again we're left needing miracles.

[iand61]

2 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Yet again we're left needing miracles.

Well we’re due one or two in our part of the country so let’s see what the next few days brings.

[northwestsnow]

6z looks wintry overnight mon thru to wed afternoon, hopefully once that horrid low moves away we will be back into PM flow thur until saturday.

Tis a shame about the low, it will wash any lying snow away ..

BBC app has heavy snow monday night right thru to wed affy in frosty ground land

[Deep Snow please]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

6z looks wintry overnight mon thru to wed afternoon, hopefully once that horrid low moves away we will be back into PM flow thur until saturday.

Tis a shame about the low, it will wash any lying snow away ..

BBC app has heavy snow monday night right thru to wed affy in frosty ground land

Just days of rain with occasional sleet imby unfortunately on the BBC app. Still think there's a chance that low could track differently though. 

[Weather-history]

It looks increasingly likely that the low will track to the north of our region somewhere over as Scotland. You want the low to occlude rapidly but the problem with this all though it will drag the colder air back in quicker, you end up with a hell of a gale! 

 

 

 

[iand61]

Hopefully the Met O will extend the warning  area later this morning to include ourselves.

it may be just leading us up the garden path of course and the reality might be completely different but it’s something to cling onto.

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Just now, iand61 said:

Hopefully the Met O will extend the warning  area later this morning to include ourselves.

it may be just leading us up the garden path of course and the reality might be completely different but it’s something to cling onto.

 

 

Agreed.

One would assume with the text upgrading and mentioning settling snow to low levels there will be a warning- esp for higher elevations.

If it remains blank by the end of the day i think i will reign in any expectations..

[iand61]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed.

One would assume with the text upgrading and mentioning settling snow to low levels there will be a warning- esp for higher elevations.

If it remains blank by the end of the day i think i will reign in any expectations..

We’ll see but i’m not expecting much in the way of a snow warning other than the default setting of “2-5cm low ground with 5-10cm over the hills”

oh “and as is the case with showers, some areas will miss them altogether”

the interesting one for me will be how they handle the direction and intensity of the storm later in the week.

will I trade the chance of a heavy snow for a severe storm.......I don’t have much choice really and it’s better than nothing but i’d prefer a foot of snow and not a breath of wind over a gale and 10c.

the worst possible outcome and the one where the TV screen is under serious threat would be Di Ox smuggly telling me that we are fortunate  we are missing the blizzards and storm force winds causing havoc across the rest of the country.

[pip22]

I wish the models would get rid of this pesky low.

The long wait for significant snow shall continue. I'm not giving up.

The bright side only Tuesday is the opportunity.

 

 

 

[gearbox100]

Glad I didn't get my hopes up one year we will get snow...... one year.

[Snowmusic]

Really feels like this one will be a look out the window job. In everything i’ve read and seen no one really seems to know what is going on. I’ve not given up hope that the models will backtrack on their backtrack as I think they are struggling as well. 

[cfallon]

This low is the stumbling block, prob won’t happen now but need it further south and a bit of luck and we are in business 

[Day 10]

Snow Watch (I'll try again )

First off I'll post what Chris posted earlier from the Met Office.

Monday:

Strong winds and blustery showers will persist all day. It will feel colder later and showers will fall increasingly as snow over hills, with sleet in the cities by nightfall. Maximum temperature 6 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Wintry showers and strong cold winds will continue, sometimes accompanied by thunder near the coast. Snow will settle widely over the hills, even leaving a centimetre or two lower down.

 

Upgrade in terms of their wording, interesting to see their updates and possible extending of the yellow warning down toward us for Tuesday at least.

 

Tuesday - The main day for all.

The big three then have a pretty strong looking WNW wind coming in, hoping it swings a bit more NW really to bring those uppers down a tad more.

So wintry showers rattling in from the word go to start with, the further inland and upland the better for snow.

As the day wears on the atmosphere becomes more conducive to those showers turning more and more wintry even toward the coast, -7 to -8 air to starts to really kick in by Tuesday's rush hour. As I've stated before with the SST's running below average and nearly 2c lower than December then this can only help, currently 6.7c.

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/crosby.htm

Tuesday rush hour temps

Still a touch high right on the coast but I fancy they will drop like a stone in any showers and stay suppressed in anything prolonged.

Thickness

Dewpoints

Forgive me if I've forgotten to add anything else, so many parameters involved but many of them are looking good.

So all in all Tuesday is looking pretty decent for many, good luck to everyone. I'm hoping even Chris & I and others on the coast might see something Tuesday night we'll see.

 

The low on Wednesday is changing track by the hour, doesn't look great at the min going too far north. Still time for change mind so no point bothering over that yet.

Have a good Sunday

 

Edited January 14, 2018 by Day 10

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Snow Watch (I'll try again )

First off I'll post what Chris posted earlier from the Met Office.

Monday:

Strong winds and blustery showers will persist all day. It will feel colder later and showers will fall increasingly as snow over hills, with sleet in the cities by nightfall. Maximum temperature 6 °C.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Wintry showers and strong cold winds will continue, sometimes accompanied by thunder near the coast. Snow will settle widely over the hills, even leaving a centimetre or two lower down.

 

Upgrade in terms of their wording, interesting to see their updates and possible extending of the yellow warning down toward us for Tuesday at least.

 

Tuesday - The main day for all.

The big three then have a pretty strong looking WNW wind coming in, hoping it swings a bit more NW really to bring those uppers down a tad more.

So wintry showers rattling in from the word go to start with, the further inland and upland the better for snow.

As the day wears on the atmosphere becomes more conducive to those showers turning more and more wintry even toward the coast, -7 to -8 air to starts to really kick in by Tuesday's rush hour. As I've stated before with the SST's running below average and nearly 2c lower than December then this can only help, currently 6.7c.

https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/crosby.htm

Tuesday rush hour temps

Still a touch high right on the coast but I fancy they will drop like a stone in any showers and stay suppressed in anything prolonged.

Thickness

Dewpoints

Forgive me if I've forgotten to add anything else, so many parameters involved but many of them are looking good.

So all in all Tuesday is looking pretty decent for many, good luck to everyone. I'm hoping even Chris & I and others on the coast might see something Tuesday night we'll see.

 

The low on Wednesday is changing track by the hour, doesn't look great at the min going too far north. Still time for change mind so no point bothering over that yet.

Have a good Sunday

 

Brilliant post

Agree with all of it.

Think there will be warnings issued either today or tomorrow morning at the absolute latest ...tue looks FUN

[cheshire snow]

Warnings updated at 10am only NI and

Scotland covered

C.S

[severe snowstorm]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Warnings updated at 10am only NI and

Scotland covered

C.S

Yes, noticed that. Could be tomorrow before warnings, if any, are issued for the region.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Warnings updated at 10am only NI and

Scotland covered

C.S

Lets see how the day progresses- if at the very least elevated parts of our region dont get a good dumping tues then i think i will officially give up and give the site a miss for a while,or until we   we see an easterly ...(which going off the last number of years might mean quite a while).

 

[iand61]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Lets see how the day progresses- if at the very least elevated parts of our region dont get a good dumping tues then i think i will officially give up and give the site a miss for a while,or until we   we see an easterly ...(which going off the last number of years might mean quite a while).

 

No we’ll get one in May after April has been nothing but northern blocking