North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Spah1]

looking forward to seeing that 1 snowflake on Friday 

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

There's Will's snowfall, then there's ours! 

 I know it’s like another world. He gets our 2010 every year! 

[WillinGlossop]

I am near Glossop but the weather from bbc automated normally is more accurate from Crowden.... Glossop it said leek Thornecliffe which is 27.3 miles away, and bingley no 2 is 39.1 miles away... not really accurate or local either way....

[Cheshire Freeze]

This looks to have the potential to be a very special event for some. I think anywhere 200m + on the West of the Pennines/peaks could be looking at a foot of snow. Those on lower ground in Lancashire/Greater Manchester could be looking at some nice accumulations too as things currently stand. 

[WillinGlossop]

Updated 18z netweather going for 62cm here..... Xcweather 78cm..... metcheck 68cm....

Edited January 12, 2018 by WillinGlossop

[Had Worse]

31 cm is enough, cant be greedy.

[chicken soup]

48 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

The winds look direct westerly to me, for most of the time. Good for much of the region.. especially the Bolton/Blackburn areas. 

I like the sound of that

[Snowmusic]

21 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

I like the sound of that

Me too but I can’t find a forecast which says anything but rain for Bolton! But not giving up yet...we’re at 143m. Not that high but there is some hope!!

[SMU]

2 hours ago, WillinGlossop said:

Updated 18z netweather going for 62cm here..... Xcweather 78cm..... metcheck 68cm....

Make sure you get pics!!!

[WillinGlossop]

Will do.... will go for a walk on the tops nearby....should be some good drifting up here if winds are strong.... have flu and bad cough.... had it for a week or so now.... so just up dosing up.... probably not made any better having had to chop up trees and doing numerous jobs outside that I’ve neglected over Christmas period.... 

[northwestsnow]

Hmmmm- difficult to know what to make of it all.

We certainly do not want GFS to be correct with the low - its too far north and will mean lots of rain...ukmo is further south and so is colder.

The updated bbc text is a bit meh- it does say turning much colder tue/wed but no mention of snow- just heavy wintry showers...

bbc raw shows a mixture of rain/sleet/snow in my location, i might not be high enough - still looks brilliant for those higher up tho..

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmm- difficult to know what to make of it all.

We certainly do not want GFS to be correct with the low - its too far north and will mean lots of rain...ukmo is further south and so is colder.

The updated bbc text is a bit meh- it does say turning much colder tue/wed but no mention of snow- just heavy wintry showers...

bbc raw shows a mixture of rain/sleet/snow in my location, i might not be high enough - still looks brilliant for those higher up tho..

BBC/Metoffice showing just rain here...

Put it this way, I'll be extremely surprised (if we do get any showers) if they fall as rain...even at 55m asl.

I make that a patch of below 516 DAM thickness...

Dews well below 0

As I've said, those up in the peaks and western Pennines...I'd be extremely surprised if you don't get 12 inches at least out of this.

Edited January 13, 2018 by CreweCold

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

BBC/Metoffice showing just rain here...

Put it this way, I'll be extremely surprised (if we do get any showers) if they fall as rain...even at 55m asl.

I'm with you mate- looks very cold and unstable... i would have thought they(beeb) would have mentioned potential for heavy snow, at high altitudes at least..

Fingers crossed..

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm with you mate- looks very cold and unstable... i would have thought they(beeb) would have mentioned potential for heavy snow, at high altitudes at least..

Fingers crossed..

For a brief window, the conditions in terms of thicknesses and uppers are not far off those seen during the infamous 09/10 streamer episode...possibly more mixing with this event due to stronger winds.

[SP1986]

43 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

BBC/Metoffice showing just rain here...

Put it this way, I'll be extremely surprised (if we do get any showers) if they fall as rain...even at 55m asl.

I make that a patch of below 516 DAM thickness...

Dews well below 0

As I've said, those up in the peaks and western Pennines...I'd be extremely surprised if you don't get 12 inches at least out of this.

One of the biggest issues for coastal areas is that the air will be very dry. With dewpoints that low and temperatures that high in relativity it will be very dry so probably a case of watching clouds build inland but mostly sunny on the coast.

[Weather-history]

6 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

One of the biggest issues for coastal areas is that the air will be very dry. With dewpoints that low and temperatures that high in relativity it will be very dry so probably a case of watching clouds build inland but mostly sunny on the coast.

Hey?

You got cold air over a "warm" sea, That results in instability and convection. This is winter, recall your basics, weak convection inland because of sun is "weak" to heat land. In summer, it's the opposite, sun heats land quicker because it's "stronger" than water hence why showers inland develop and often the waters are clear of convection.

Edited January 13, 2018 by Weather-history

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

One of the biggest issues for coastal areas is that the air will be very dry. With dewpoints that low and temperatures that high in relativity it will be very dry so probably a case of watching clouds build inland but mostly sunny on the coast.

Indeed

As an aside...GFS and ECM prog winds across the S of the region in excess of 80-90mph, even inland

Would like to see that runner low go S in all honesty!

[northwestsnow]

Well whatever happens with the low it looks brilliant after its gone through..

[SP1986]

13 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed

As an aside...GFS and ECM prog winds across the S of the region in excess of 80-90mph, even inland

Would like to see that runner low go S in all honesty!

Imagine the wind chill... ?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, SP1986 said:

Imagine the wind chill... ?

You seen this in the GEFS?

Can't even see the space between the isobars. Not sure I've ever seen a chart as severe as that for the UK...even in the GEFS.

[Weather-history]

The wind direction generally doesn't look favourable for a Cheshire Gap effect to me. Looks like it has far too much of a westerly component. 

Could be a lot of soft hail in any showers.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Weather-history said:

The wind direction generally doesn't look favourable for a Cheshire Gap effect to me. Looks like it has far too much of a westerly component. 

Could be a lot of soft hail in any showers.

Yep too westerly for a Cheshire Gap. Greater Manchester and Lancashire will get most of the precipitation.

[captaincroc]

I think we will still get showers, be them weaker and less frequent, but like you said MCR, Lancashire etc are in for a treat!

[iand61]

Another day closer and still the models are holding firm on something special across the region next week.

will it downgrade, will it upgrade, is it possible to upgrade from the day after tomorrow conditions being shown at the moment.

whatever the outcome it beats looking at constant mild mush with the only thing worth hanging to being the possibility of a fleeting northerly two weeks out.

good look everyone and I hope we all get a winter period that will still be talked about in years to come.

[captaincroc]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

Another day closer and still the models are holding firm on something special across the region next week.

will it downgrade, will it upgrade, is it possible to upgrade from the day after tomorrow conditions being shown at the moment.

whatever the outcome it beats looking at constant mild mush with the only thing worth hanging to being the possibility of a fleeting northerly two weeks out.

good look everyone and I hope we all get a winter period that will still be talked about in years to come.

I think the convective showers are nailed on, the only issue is the boundary of snow, is it going to snow on the coast etc?  The favourable parameters seem to be holding up, yes the uppers aren't as good as December but the SSTs are lower and there are other factors more in our favour. The wind will blow more showers across the region but also it will mix up temperatures up there too so not as cold on the ground as lighter winds. Like many have said, I reckon there will be more organised areas of precipitation that will swing across the region, that mixed with a LOT of energy up there could result in some exciting falls. I love it when the sky goes black and it just pelts down with snow covering everything in seconds...I feel this set up is prime for that.