North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Alister]

31 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Those like me in typically snow starved areas.....to avoid crushing disappointment, dont get too exited this time.    Unless there are some big changes (and even then be skeptical)  this looks like a no go for anyone nearish the coast or a 0 asl.

Preston get battered ocasionally! I was contracting at Lancs CC in 2009, just about made it up the M61 befor it was closed, within a couple of hours there was 6" in Winkley Square in the centre of town.

 

[Acupuncturist]

Well it certinly looks like an exciting period oming up for our region. Unfortunately for me I think its probably just going to be cold wet and windy here in Chorlton but probably anyone with any elevation will see lots of snow. net result for me will be Ill be one of the few who is working with most of my colleagues stuck in snow in Stockport and Broadbottom. Ah well a week of 12 hour shifts to look forward to

[WillinGlossop]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Strong westerly winds, sunny spells and occasional sleet, hail and snow showers will lead to winter conditions across this hills. Icy surfaces are likely, and whilst accumulations will mostly be above the freezing level, of around 200m, some snow is possible to valley floors during heavier bursts.

And Monday as well 

Overnight rain clears southeast around midday. A colder day, with sunshine but also blustery showers follows. Freezing level falls from 600m at dawn, to 300m by the afternoon, and then to 100m during the evening. Showers will turn increasingly to snow at all levels, with some icy conditions possible.

 

plus now netweather going for 80cm here.... 

[northwestsnow]

Yes it does look look like altitude is again going to be a big factor.

How much altitude is the million dollar question..

[toggerob]

The annual SPINE Race begins from Edale this Saturday with runners taking on the length of the Pennine Way almost non-stop over 5 to 10 days, i'm keeping a close eye on the forecast as any inclement conditions will need reporting to the safety-teams so they can prep incase of any on-course actions/emergencies which can sometimes arise. 

It's always a fun week following the trackers all heading north whilst keeping a eye on the radar situation.

Edited January 12, 2018 by SNOW_JOKE

[WillinGlossop]

Metcheck going for 38cm....weather outlook 35cm....

ec going for 20inches plus Peak District and 6-8inches over a wide area of nw England 

Edited January 12, 2018 by WillinGlossop

[frosty ground]

16 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

And Monday as well 

Overnight rain clears southeast around midday. A colder day, with sunshine but also blustery showers follows. Freezing level falls from 600m at dawn, to 300m by the afternoon, and then to 100m during the evening. Showers will turn increasingly to snow at all levels, with some icy conditions possible.

 

plus now netweather going for 80cm here.... 

That is not matching up with other Sites...... All use GFS..... Like XCweather. for example

[severe snowstorm]

22 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Strong westerly winds, sunny spells and occasional sleet, hail and snow showers will lead to winter conditions across this hills. Icy surfaces are likely, and whilst accumulations will mostly be above the freezing level, of around 200m, some snow is possible to valley floors during heavier bursts.

I will be keeping an eye on the Manchester and Liverpool airport TAFs come Sunday as these will be a good indicator of altitude requirements for falling snow at least.

[WillinGlossop]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That is not matching up with other Sites...... All use GFS..... Like XCweather. for example

Xcweather going for 38cm here....

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, WillinGlossop said:

Xcweather going for 38cm here....

Allow a 50% melt factor and i reckon that will be about right by Friday.

[WillinGlossop]

Don’t think there will be much melting above 200m.... 

[Chris.R]

SST watch. 

Crosby is still at 6.7°C, no change from yesterday, 0.9°C below the long-term average. Something seems suspect with the data however as all nearby observations are the same and just doesn’t feel right. 

 Hosting my thoughts about next week in a minute. 

[Snow free zone]

Loving all the eye candy charts .... but i really cannot see anything other than cold rain/sleet for those low lying more westerly areas of the region.  

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw1fe28j#?date=2018-01-16

Nothing out of the ordinary in that forecast at all ....  seems to be the complete opposite of the charts posted above

[Deep Snow please]

55 minutes ago, WillinGlossop said:

Metcheck going for 38cm....weather outlook 35cm....

ec going for 20inches plus Peak District and 6-8inches over a wide area of nw England 

That chart is nothing more than weather porn. If we get 16-20 inches here I might feint. 

[Chris.R]

Right then. Haven’t caught up with this thread yet so these are just my initial thoughts. I have no shame in saying that this is a rather imby post because it has to be as the coastal strip will be experiencing different conditions to inland next week regardless of what happens. 

 The first thing that strikes me is the impressive lapse rates that we will have from Tuesday morning onwards,with 500 mbar temperatures constantly between -35 and -40; so potential for some very lively showers. Lightning will occur probably quite frequently around the area, especially during the night and in the coldest pockets of air.

850 mbar temperatures do not seem to me to be conducive for coastal falling snow all the time, so I am only expecting to see snow in very heavy and/or prolonged showers. At the very least though I’m expecting a rarther interesting week of  convection with showers of hail, graupel and sleet, with wet snow at times.

Friday night looks interesting to me if forecasts continue to suggest winds veering northerly; I can see a snow event for the coast at that point. 

 In summary, I am not expecting any lying snow here except for possibly an hour or two here and there, although I expect coverings of hail and graupel to be rather persistent.  I do expect to see falling snow but only transiently.  Apart from that, looking forward to the convective potential and to reading other reports from across the region even though they will most likely make me jealous. :-) 

Edited January 12, 2018 by Chris.R

[captaincroc]

This coming spell does definitely look very interesting for our region. Yes, there is obviously a close border between if things fall as rain or snow but either way the week is full of potential. I reckon this thread will be extremely lively. I reckon a lot of the higher ground to the east of the region will storm it.  I am a bit too far south for the angle of the showers so will get less but excited to see what most people here get. 

[Chris.R]

I Expect rain and snow to make up 10% or less of all precipitation within 15 miles of the coast, 90%  will be hail or graupel. 

[frosty ground]

30 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

Right then. Haven’t caught up with this thread yet so these are just my initial thoughts. I have no shame in saying that this is a rather imby post because it has to be as the coastal strip will be experiencing different conditions to inland next week regardless of what happens. 

 The first thing that strikes me is the impressive lapse rates that we will have from Tuesday morning onwards,with 500 mbar temperatures constantly between -35 and -40; so potential for some very lively showers. Lightning will occur probably quite frequently around the area, especially during the night and in the coldest pockets of air.

850 mbar temperatures do not seem to me to be conducive for coastal falling snow all the time, so I am only expecting to see snow in very heavy and/or prolonged showers. At the very least though I’m expecting a rarther interesting week of  convection with showers of hail, graupel and sleet, with wet snow at times.

Friday night looks interesting to me if forecasts continue to suggest winds veering northerly; I can see a snow event for the coast at that point. 

 In summary, I am not expecting any lying snow here except for possibly an hour or two here and there, although I expect coverings of hail and graupel to be rather persistent.  I do expect to see falling snow but only transiently.  Apart from that, looking forward to the convective potential and to reading other reports from across the region even though they will most likely make me jealous. :-) 

Seems reasonable for coastal locations.

Any runners could give you a rather larger fall of snow depending on track, so its worth watching.

Regardless of the snow there are going to be some lifely showers accompanied by some strong gust of wind.

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Seems reasonable for coastal locations.

Any runners could give you a rather larger fall of snow depending on track, so its worth watching.

Regardless of the snow there are going to be some lifely showers accompanied by some strong gust of wind.

 Yes, especially if runners back wins off-shore as they pass. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

22 hours ago, Snow free zone said:

Will this do ?

[Iceaxecrampon]

Off to Ribblehead via the S&C Railway Wednesday next week - should be interesting.

[Snow free zone]

8 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Off to Ribblehead via the S&C Railway Wednesday next week - should be interesting.

Lucky you ... enjoy.  I keep telling myself I must take the kids on the S & C line. We've done alot of camping over Skipton/Settle way the views are superb.  Perhaps this year !!

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, Snow free zone said:

Lucky you ... enjoy.  I keep telling myself I must take the kids on the S & C line. We've done alot of camping over Skipton/Settle way the views are superb.  Perhaps this year !!

Yes - its been planned for a while dodging the industrial action and whatever the weather -  off at Ribblehead for a bimble up to the base of Whernside near the waterfalls.

We may have to stay on the train though depending on ppn levels.

[pip22]

I don't think we need altitude to receive snow next week based on the latest run. It shows snow forecast even over the Irish Sea!! That's according to the latest GFS.

Edited January 12, 2018 by pip22

[Deep Snow please]

20 minutes ago, pip22 said:

I don't think we need altitude to receive snow next week based on the latest run. It shows snow forecast even over the Irish Sea!! That's according to the latest GFS.

I somehow doubt that will hold. Maybe it's just after so many disappointments this winter I don't want to set myself up for another one. Remember the last snow event blanketed the entire northern extent of the country and gave much of our region a layer of slush...