North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Chris harry]

Rain and snow here. The map looks crazy.

[Chris.R]

 Moderate sleet, 1.7°C. 

[Chris.R]

Oh great. It was on the turn and now it’s stopped! 

[Chris.R]

Started to rain again. Pressure much lower than forecast. 983.2 mbar, falling quickly. 

[iand61]

No frost or signs of overnight snow here, feels quite mild really.

[Cheese Rice]

31 minutes ago, iand61 said:

No frost or signs of overnight snow here, feels quite mild really.

Crazy how little elevation seems to make west of the pennines, the Irish Sea has relly got yall screwed. 

Sun zero here with a covering of snow. 

[northwestsnow]

53 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Crazy how little elevation seems to make west of the pennines, the Irish Sea has relly got yall screwed. 

Sun zero here with a covering of snow. 

Yup, the irish sea is an absolute killer for us- 

Its interesting just how much the sea modifies things for us west of the pennines- wonder if it has warmed over the last 30 years?

[SP1986]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, the irish sea is an absolute killer for us- 

Its interesting just how much the sea modifies things for us west of the pennines- wonder if it has warmed over the last 30 years?

To be honest I suspect it has warmed. My location struggles to get cold temperatures anymore in very cold setups with 'transport cold'. To get cold temperatures here you have to rely on deep inversions which are almost as rare as hens teeth. The fact that in the past 10 years (aside from 2010) it's very difficult to record lower than -2C here on the coast with some elevation during intervals where 850hPa temps were down to -15C suggests the influence of the sea is much more stark than it once was.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, SP1986 said:

To be honest I suspect it has warmed. My location struggles to get cold temperatures anymore in very cold setups with 'transport cold'. To get cold temperatures here you have to rely on deep inversions which are almost as rare as hens teeth. The fact that in the past 10 years (aside from 2010) it's very difficult to record lower than -2C here on the coast with some elevation during intervals where 850hPa temps were down to -15C suggests the influence of the sea is much more stark than it once was.

Well i don't have the facts to back my thoughts up Ste but if the sea has warmed by even a degree that would modify what we see on the ground - i'm pretty sure the Atlantic has warmed, so logic suggests the Irish sea will be no different...

Either way , i'm convinced 30 years ago or more would have seen our region very snowy due to the number of days this month has seen PM incursions.

 

[SP1986]

44 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i don't have the facts to back my thoughts up Ste but if the sea has warmed by even a degree that would modify what we see on the ground - i'm pretty sure the Atlantic has warmed, so logic suggests the Irish sea will be no different...

Either way , i'm convinced 30 years ago or more would have seen our region very snowy due to the number of days this month has seen PM incursions.

 

Almost certainly it used to be snowier and colder.. I can even trace that back to 25 years ago from my childhood. However a lot of locals say the same.. it used to snow much more and yet it rarely snows now. Although retrospective views can be inflated sometimes.. I think their opinion is true.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

@SP1986 do tou know what all these squiggles on pressure mean? Is it just high res bug?

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

@SP1986 do tou know what all these squiggles on pressure mean? Is it just high res bug?

Looks like it spelling the word SOS if you zoom in closer

C.S

[Day 10]

2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, the irish sea is an absolute killer for us- 

Its interesting just how much the sea modifies things for us west of the pennines- wonder if it has warmed over the last 30 years?

 

1 hour ago, SP1986 said:

Almost certainly it used to be snowier and colder.. I can even trace that back to 25 years ago from my childhood. However a lot of locals say the same.. it used to snow much more and yet it rarely snows now. Although retrospective views can be inflated sometimes.. I think their opinion is true.

Yes it must have, I fully agree. There was definitely more snow around in the 80's compared to now, you could virtually guarantee on average at least one decent snow event each Winter 20 - 30 years ago here.

[AderynCoch]

3 hours ago, Cheese Rice said:

Crazy how little elevation seems to make west of the pennines, the Irish Sea has relly got yall screwed. 

Sun zero here with a covering of snow. 

Actually it makes a significant difference (many upper parts of the region have had decent snow the past few days). I put the current circumstances down to the synoptics (it looks like the milder air hasn't reached you yet).

In any case it's been disgustingly unlucky again here. I know I'm on the coast but I've seen synoptics similar to the current ones deliver for this area before. Then you have the two sliders which were simply too far south. I see Dylan has been shunted north again after an initial southward change over our region; why couldn't this have happened with the sliders? Sod's Law strikes yet again. I don't expect constant blizzards but some luck wouldn't go amiss.

[HafrenLMP1]

1 hour ago, SP1986 said:

Almost certainly it used to be snowier and colder.. I can even trace that back to 25 years ago from my childhood. However a lot of locals say the same.. it used to snow much more and yet it rarely snows now. Although retrospective views can be inflated sometimes.. I think their opinion is true.

I don't think there is any doubt it was colder & snowier; I had a paper round in the morning and evening from 1985-88...and there were many times I remember delivering papers in the snow; one time I went over the handlebars of my bike....when walking was probably more sensible.

Yet here in December 2017 we haven't had any decent proper covering of snow since January 2013.

[Cheese Rice]

3 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Actually it makes a significant difference (many upper parts of the region have had decent snow the past few days). I put the current circumstances down to the synoptics (it looks like the milder air hasn't reached you yet).

In any case it's been disgustingly unlucky again here. I know I'm on the coast but I've seen synoptics similar to the current ones deliver for this area before. Then you have the two sliders which were simply too far south. I see Dylan has been shunted north again after an initial southward change over our region; why couldn't this have happened with the sliders? Sod's Law strikes yet again. I don't expect constant blizzards but some luck wouldn't go amiss.

Sorry I don't think I explained well enough, as in its crazy that even with elevation the NW still does pants. It can be snowing at sea level in Leeds while raining 200m up on a hill in the NW.

[northwestsnow]

Well the theory will be put to the test over the coming 10 days or so as there is plenty of PM air projected- the first 10 days of Jan should be colder than December, and the meto update sounds promising for next weekend with wintry showers and frosts forecast for this region..

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Cheese Rice said:

Sorry I don't think I explained well enough, as in its crazy that even with elevation the NW still does pants. It can be snowing at sea level in Leeds while raining 200m up on a hill in the NW.

Spot on cheese.

It doesnt get much further east of NW England than sadlleworth-

[Day 10]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/weather-review-of-2017

[Day 10]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Yup, the irish sea is an absolute killer for us- 

Its interesting just how much the sea modifies things for us west of the pennines- wonder if it has warmed over the last 30 years?

Just out of interest the sea surface temperature by Crosby today is 8.9C with the average for this time of the year being 9.6C. So a little below which is surprising.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Just out of interest the sea surface temperature by Crosby today is 8.9C with the average for this time of the year being 9.6C. So a little below which is surprising.

Yes, thats good news mate- hopefully that will help not hinder in the coming weeks ...(again, i suspect there will be NW/WNW winds a plenty).

[Spurry]

2 hours ago, SP1986 said:

Almost certainly it used to be snowier and colder.. I can even trace that back to 25 years ago from my childhood. However a lot of locals say the same.. it used to snow much more and yet it rarely snows now. Although retrospective views can be inflated sometimes.. I think their opinion is true.

I moved to the NW in 1989 (Merseyside till 92 & then Wigan), and I could probably count on the fingers of one hand (that's 5 in these parts :-) ) the number of times we've had 'disruptive' snow since then, certainly it was a lot snowier and colder when I lived in Birmingham (1961-89). My son was born in 1997 in Wigan and the first time he saw heavy disruptive snow was in 2007 and that was when went to Sweden. I love this part of the country, it is my home, however I hate the fact we get very little snow and cold in the winter, similarly we also seem to have wetter cloudier summers than other parts of the country.

[HafrenLMP1]

4 minutes ago, Spurry said:

I moved to the NW in 1989 (Merseyside till 92 & then Wigan), and I could probably count on the fingers of one hand (that's 5 in these parts :-) ) the number of times we've had 'disruptive' snow since then, certainly it was a lot snowier and colder when I lived in Birmingham (1961-89). My son was born in 1997 in Wigan and the first time he saw heavy disruptive snow was in 2007 and that was when went to Sweden. I love this part of the country, it is my home, however I hate the fact we get very little snow and cold in the winter, similarly we also seem to have wetter cloudier summers than other parts of the country.

You missed out on some snow in Wigan then; I worked there from 1992-99 and there were a few occasions when there was a decent dumping of snow. One that stands out is a Friday in late January 1995; started snowing around lunch time, and by the time it came to finish work (around 14:00) it was quite thick. In fact, it took around 2 hours (yes, 2 hours ) to get from Poolstock Lane to the M58......not helped by people just leaving their cars at the side of the road. Why???

[iand61]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Spot on cheese.

It doesnt get much further east of NW England than sadlleworth-

Pretty ironic that my best chances of heavy snow are now from an easterly rather than a westerly airflow but as others have said, it didn’t seem to be like that in winters gone by.

i grew up with an obsession for snow but in them days, late 1960 onwards’ information was limited to radio and tv forecasts but my memories always seemed to be of fronts coming in from the Atlantic and hitting embedded cold air over the country, often stalling and then if we were lucky, being forced back as the high to the east won the day.

we seem to get at least a couple of these every winter when I was growing up and the snow seemed to last, often to the point where it went black with the smoke from what was then a multitude of factory and domestic chimneys.

i’m sure that breakdowns to milder air and thaws took place more often than not but it certainly wasn’t on the scale of probability that seems to be the case now.

what I also seem to remember from those days was a lack of weather warnings as well as a good honest opinion of what was likely to happen, not a emphasis on what preference of weather the presenter wanted.

you got what was coming, if it was less than expected so what, if it ended up more you found a bigger shovel.

enough reminiscing, it’s almost the end of 2017, all of my impressive 2 inches of snow has gone and it’s peeeeing down. 

 

[AderynCoch]

31 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Sorry I don't think I explained well enough, as in its crazy that even with elevation the NW still does pants. It can be snowing at sea level in Leeds while raining 200m up on a hill in the NW.

Is this normal though? Looking at the 7am temperatures it was 0C at LBA but 7C at Manchester, which indicates to me a milder airmass which hadn't reached your neck of the woods yet. Now it's 6C at LBA and 8C at Manchester - a much smaller difference due to the eastward progression of the milder airmass.