North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Chris.R]

8 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Tonight?

Yes.  Wind backs a bit to the north-west so the Irish sea has a chance to come alive for a bit. The models tend to underestimate  it in this set up. 850s are just about cold enough for this late in the month, although we would be relying on evaporative cooling a bit as well. 

 Keep an eye on Friday mostly though. 

Edited December 27, 2017 by Chris.R

[iand61]

2 hours ago, Spah1 said:

iand61

any snow there now? 

Nothing at home but just been to Burnley and the moorland at the summit has a slight covering from first thing yesterday.

snow line is about 350m.

[karyo]

59 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Hooray a blue sky day - about time, not had one for 11 days now.. can see the fells again! and they are covered in snow, so it looks especially good set against the pale blue sky with not a cloud around. Cold to boot some patchy frost about. Tonight will be icy again, with perhaps an odd wintry shower - would be nice to see a slight dusting at least. More southern parts could see a few hefty snow showers overnight that will catch many by surprise as the wind veers more to the north west, just like what happened on the 8/9 Dec - almost a carbon copy. 

Friday is looking increasingly wintry, a wave is set to form on the frontal feature and with embedded cold air, it could stall and pivot and produce some low level snow to much of the region, and could last quite some time - lets see. It woudl be sods law if it suddenly decides to move north, or indeed south - not south please, no no.. its our time!

For a change, Cumbria looks to be the sweet spot for Friday! Maybe even snow for much of the day for you.Further south it is snow turning to rain (and maybe just sleet/rain for coastal areas).

We have missed out on two snow events so far this season due to southwards corrections. This time we could all do with a slght shift south to benefit more of our region. But are we going to get it?

[Day 10]

Just now, Chris.R said:

Yes.  Wind backs a bit to the north-west so the ABC has a chance to come alive for a bit. The models tend to underestimate  underestimat it in this set up. 850s are just about cold enough for this late in the month, although we would be relying on evaporative cooling a bit as well. 

 Keep an eye on Friday mostly though. 

Yes keeping an eye on Friday, the one thing that is different this year is that even though we are not or have not been in any prolonged deep cold spell is the fact we still seem to be having regular chances for snow even here. We have missed them all so far so hopefully one will hit soon. All eyes on Friday (oh no slight hopes creep in AGAIN lol).

[iand61]

Just now, karyo said:

For a change, Cumbria looks to be the sweet spot for Friday! Maybe even snow for much of the day for you.Further south it is snow turning to rain (and maybe just sleet/rain for coastal areas).

We have missed out on two snow events so far this season due to southwards corrections. This time we could all do with a slght shift south to benefit more of our region. But are we going to get it?

No chance. 

[Day 10]

Here is the GFS at t48, yes a correction south would be good this time.

But because we want a correction south it will probably correct north so we all get rain, ever the optimist!

Edited December 27, 2017 by Day 10

[Chris.R]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Yes keeping an eye on Friday, the one thing that is different this year is that even though we are not or have not been in any prolonged deep cold spell is the fact we still seem to be having regular chances for snow even here. We have missed them all so far so hopefully one will hit soon. All eyes on Friday (oh no slight hopes creep in AGAIN lol).

 Yes because the jet stream is consistently further south than usual. We don’t need a big Greenland high just a little bit of high pressure to the North to deflect the jet stream. We actually often do better in that situation. The Irish sea will have no influence on  Friday as the wind is off-shore through the morning, especially at your location. 

[karyo]

4 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Here is the GFS at t48, yes a correction south would be good this time.

But because we want a correction south it will probably correct north so we all get rain, ever the optimist!

Yes, we just need a fraction south and that's it.

[iand61]

1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

Here is the GFS at t48, yes a correction south would be good this time.

It will do, it’s just figuring out a way to develop a mild sector over us and then turn back to snow over the midlands and SE.

BBC has me down for a few hours of heavy snow on Friday morning now rather a couple hours of light stuff showing earlier but the last let down had me for over 12 hours of heavy snow before pulling the snow rug completely from under my feet the day before.

 

[Chris.R]

FWIW Met office app has me down for heavy snow and sleet during Friday morning with a south-easterly wind. The apps are getting better all the time. Not that this means much but it does show that the models are correcting in the right direction. 

[Mokidugway]

Can't say I'm excited by the potential of 3 cm of snow followed by a day of drizzle and 9c  an epic regional yawnfest as per usual .

Edited December 27, 2017 by Mokidugway

[Mokidugway]

Belated merry Christmas every one 

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Can't say I'm excited by the potential of 3 cm of snow followed by a day of drizzle and 9c  an epic regional yawnfest as per usual .

We have a yawnfest everyday so we should treasure a few hours of excitement. 

[Day 10]

The weather gods hate us they truly do lol.

[itsnowjoke]

Tonight ??

[Day 10]

I can't see snow happening here anyway, I think some of you may see it the likes of Manchester & Burnley maybe but not here AGAIN.

[Day 10]

Just now, itsnowjoke said:

Tonight ??

Friday

[cheshire snow]

Snow showers showing up first thing tomorrow through the Cheshire Gap

C.S

[Chris.R]

3 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I can't see snow happening here anyway, I think some of you may see it the likes of Manchester & Burnley maybe but not here AGAIN.

How much do you wana bet? I got a pair of gloves lying around for some reason? 

Edited December 27, 2017 by Chris.R

[toggerob]

A bit of interest today with the edge of the front crossing west to east, completely cloudy one side over the peaks with a divergent line defining the colder/drier-air with uninterrupted sunshine over Cheshire and Manchester.

[Chris.R]

Liverpool airport TAF showing light rain/snow showers from 02:00. 

Manchester from 03:00.

Edited December 27, 2017 by Chris.R

[cheshire snow]

Weather on just now showing some snow showers first thing tomorrow for Liverpool/cheshire and Greater Manchester,no mention of it though from the presenter 

(What a surprise)

As for Friday event looks like the METO are going with the GFS for snow missing the region,however after last nights GFS I don' have much confidence in the GFS.

C.S. 

Edited December 27, 2017 by cheshire snow

[iand61]

33 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

The weather gods hate us they truly do lol.

Thank god for that, just when I thought I might have to sit and watch some snow falling it looks like they’ve managed to find a spare warm sector just the right shape and size to fit us like a comfort blanket.

unlucky for you folks in Cumbria though, get your shovels out it’s going to be a white hell out there. 

[Weather-history]

13 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Weather on just now showing some snow showers first thing tomorrow for Liverpool/cheshire and Greater Manchester,no mention of it though from the presenter 

(What a surprise)

As for Friday event looks like the METO are going with the GFS for snow missing the region,however after last nights GFS I don' have much confidence in the GFS.

C.S. 

GFS had a shocker over this, I think yesterday, 15 ensembles had me down for a snow cover. The ensembles should have got less and less over snow cover prospects with this nearer the time. 

[cheshire snow]

4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

GFS had a shocker over this, I think yesterday, 15 ensembles had me down for a snow cover. The ensembles should have got less and less over snow cover prospects with this nearer the time. 

Indeed 

Liverpool had 22 ensembles for last night.

C.S.