North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Carl46Wrexham]

6 minutes ago, Snow shield said:

Sledges in me car and we're ready for the horseshoe pass

Horseshoe pass MIGHT be closed. It was closed Friday when we had less snow on the ground than right now.

[Makemeasnowman]

Still snowing here in south Liverpool. Covering on walls and cars and trying to stick on the pavement. 

[damianslaw]

Mmm I can understand frustration from the NW contingency today given the forecasts were for the snow to hit southern parts at least, alas not to be, and the midlands and east wales once again is seeing the heaviest of the snow, mind the amounts look rather small, the precipitation not as heavy as forecast, something to do with the colder air undercutting perhaps squeezing out the moisture, it is very dry air as well, very little visible frost despite temps below freezing here for instance.

Also as some speculated there does tend to be a tendency for any frontal activity moving in from the SW and set to stall, or sliders, to correct significantly SW as the event unfolds, happens all the time, so with this in mind, I would only get excited if we see similiar forecast events progged to hit central Scotland, as by the time they arrive they will be shunted into northern england  that's the sort of margin of correction we need.

Parts of the NW have done well on Thurs and Fri thanks to the direction of the wind - so can't complain.

Spare a thought for us in Cumbria though, apart from the high ground many places have seen no snow in the past 2 days, we missed out last week when the NE got it as well. Oh well it is only 10 December, must remember this, snow before christmas is always a bonus, and we are far more likely to see snow in March than before christmas.

The next 2 days look very cold, and it is the cold temperatures which should be the talking point.

The outlook remains mostly cold as well through until next weekend at least, and I'm certain there will be more chances for snow as the season wears on, unlike the last two which were dire!

Edited December 10, 2017 by damianslaw

[Snow shield]

Just now, Carl46Wrexham said:

Horseshoe pass MIGHT be closed. It was closed Friday when we had less snow on the ground than right now.

Thought it might be. Gonna find a hill on the way. Does anyone have any suggestions?

[Backtrack]

2 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Horseshoe pass MIGHT be closed. It was closed Friday when we had less snow on the ground than right now.

It was closed last night at 2am

[More Runs Needed]

Thurs morning looks good for snow from gfs?

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Also I'll just add...for those N of Cheshire in the region, situations like the GFS is showing this morning can spring surprises

Little features crossing over the Irish Sea in sub 528 DAM air

Yes if we see any trough features overnight, could be a wintry deposit to relatively low levels, but suspect higher ground above about 300 metres only. The fells willsee a good coating though. If it was a bit later in the season, conditions would be less marginal.

[Winter Hill]

5 minutes ago, Snow shield said:

Thought it might be. Gonna find a hill on the way. Does anyone have any suggestions?

Got a big hill near me but very little on it 

[Spurry]

Tomasz Schafernaker's response to my tweet that they got it wrong ; do you agree with him?

More

Replying to @efc5661 @metoffice

Hang on a minute, If you watched forecasts there was always a suggestion that the area could drift many miles north or south. A forecast is just forecast not a certainty. Some may have missed it by a few tens of miles. That’s good accuracy for days in advance.

Edited December 10, 2017 by Spurry

[Backtrack]

Stopping now. About half a cm here. 0.5C, DP 0.5C, on the rise. Melting. 

[Spurry]

I've also asked the Meto this question but so far no response

@metoffice ,How have you got the forecast for NW/N England so wrong?, up until Friday night we were under an amber warning for disruptive snow. many people cancelled plans on this advice ,The reality is there is no snow North of Cheshire #bunchofcowboys

[cheese]

7 minutes ago, Spurry said:

Tomasz Schafernaker's response to my tweet that they got it wrong ; do you agree with him?

More

Replying to @efc5661 @metoffice

Hang on a minute, If you watched forecasts there was always a suggestion that the area could drift many miles north or south. A forecast is just forecast not a certainty. Some may have missed it by a few tens of miles. That’s good accuracy for days in advance.

It's really not their fault the models shifted everything south at the last minute. They obviously update their forecasts to accommodate what the latest output is showing.

Though it does show rather nicely how the models can make a total mockery of forecasts. Bet a lot of people and councils in this part of the world were planning for a lot of snow, while London and the like were planning for absolutely nothing.

Edited December 10, 2017 by cheese

[iand61]

9 minutes ago, Spurry said:

Tomasz Schafernaker's response to my tweet that they got it wrong ; do you agree with him?

More

Replying to @efc5661 @metoffice

Hang on a minute, If you watched forecasts there was always a suggestion that the area could drift many miles north or south. A forecast is just forecast not a certainty. Some may have missed it by a few tens of miles. That’s good accuracy for days in advance.

I'd like to see your tweet that wound him up enough to start with hang on a minute.

not a very professional response from him but I'd imagine the Meto and BBC are getting a fair bit of stick from both Joe public and the business world over this.

imagine the loss of trade at shopping centres if people are not prepared to travel due to the prospect of snow which then doesn't turn up.

he is right that it's only a forecast, he is wrong if he thinks they handled it well.

Edited December 10, 2017 by iand61
Spelling mistake

[Darren Bown]

Just now, iand61 said:

I'd like to see your tweet that wound him up enough to start with hang on a minute.

not a very professional response from him but I'd imagine the Meto and BBC are getting a fair bit of stick from both Jordan public and the business world over this.

imagine the loss of trade at shopping centres if people are not prepared to travel due to the prospect of snow which then doesn't turn up.

he is right that it's only a forecast, he is wrong if he thinks they handled it well.

This - at least take some responsibility that the forecast was fundamentally wrong within the usual acceptance of forecasting disruption (up to 3 days). So many places will suffer in terms of business. I know our plans cancelled will be a loss of about £100 to the economy - imagine the true cost?!

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Right so whens our next disappointment i nean snkwfall!!

[itsnowjoke]

Well I for one am rather surprised thought I would get a slight dusting but nothing lol

[Spurry]

4 minutes ago, iand61 said:

I'd like to see your tweet that wound him up enough to start with hang on a minute.

not a very professional response from him but I'd imagine the Meto and BBC are getting a fair bit of stick from both Joe public and the business world over this.

imagine the loss of trade at shopping centres if people are not prepared to travel due to the prospect of snow which then doesn't turn up.

he is right that it's only a forecast, he is wrong if he thinks they handled it well.

This is it below

 

How have the @metoffice got it so wrong for NW/N England?,up until friday night we were under an amber warning for disruptive snow,we've got no snow at http://all.How  much money does the Meto cost the taxpayer? #Cowboys

[Snow shield]

lol at #cowboys 

[iand61]

7 minutes ago, itsnowjoke said:

Well I for one am rather surprised thought I would get a slight dusting but nothing lol

Yes same here.

we are still in the yellow area and have not seen a single flake this morning.

[Iceaxecrampon]

Looking at the radar there seems to be a pivot moving over Yorkshire.

Clouds currently moving from the East.

[blackrum]

39 minutes ago, Spurry said:

The met office really need a kick up the weeble,I know they started to backtrack yesterday but up until Friday night they were still saying widespread disruption to Northern England,how can they have got it so wrong?

I think the weather makes a fool out of all of us & maybe they could be cut some slack but to a certain degree I agree...  Even on Friday they said they where very confident of track (which had the amber warning right up to Preston)...

[The Northern Ramper]

25 minutes ago, Spurry said:

Tomasz Schafernaker's response to my tweet that they got it wrong ; do you agree with him?

More

Replying to @efc5661 @metoffice

Hang on a minute, If you watched forecasts there was always a suggestion that the area could drift many miles north or south. A forecast is just forecast not a certainty. Some may have missed it by a few tens of miles. That’s good accuracy for days in advance.

I usually have sympathy with the met but quite frankly I feel they have all been poor. 

The fact they don't use their knowledge  of past experience or should I say don't have the confidence to go against a computer.

Amateurs all called this from past experience, we hoped in the northwest against but there wasn't confidence.

 

On Twitter the experts hinted at it, but in their forecast they didn't back their own judgement. 

 

They all knew knew it was going south.

Edited December 10, 2017 by Ramp

[Frost HoIIow]

Like others have said I bet people have lost money in our region for taking time off or cancelling plans, to go from heavy snow symbols all day to just overcast ones in relatively short space of time is the biggest turnaround I have seen.

[wrightc23]

Little more than a dusting here, a few flakes floating around. The snow was actually quite bit heavier here yesterday. Just been out to near Stoke and they have quite a bit more.

Still nice to see something this early in winter for once.

Edited December 10, 2017 by wrightc23

[wrightc23]

33 minutes ago, Spurry said:

I've also asked the Meto this question but so far no response

@metoffice ,How have you got the forecast for NW/N England so wrong?, up until Friday night we were under an amber warning for disruptive snow. many people cancelled plans on this advice ,The reality is there is no snow North of Cheshire #bunchofcowboys

Having driven around much of south Cheshire this morning I'd say there's actually relatively little snow, a couple of cm's. Doesn't really chime in with the met office's forecast but then again they can only call it as they see it. They'd be far more concerned about missing something completely than warning of something that didn't pan out.

Edited December 10, 2017 by wrightc23