South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards

[Dorsetbred]

Morning all, a cool start @ 5C, and dry (there's a change..for now).

[knocker]

Cloudy, slight rain, temp 8C

[jethro]

Morning all, it's an unexpected dry start to the day here, as it's back to the reality of work for me today I'm hoping the rain holds off for most of the day.

Went into the mad thread last night and again just now, lots of excitement around but becoming rather more tempered by further model runs....I have a question for you more level headed lot.....Is it going to get cold, if so are we talking a bit chilly or properly cold? Any truth in all the excitement, chilly for quite a while or blink and you'd miss it cold? Reason I ask is my Landy battery doesn't like cold weather, the snow just after Christmas made it go on strike for a couple of days, when it's not cold it's fine. I know I'm going to have to get a new one but with the expense of Christmas I was hoping to get away with it until after payday at the end of the month. Any hope of that or am I simply dreaming?

[lettice]

Grey, grey and grey this morning. 
7.4c now. Was WSW overnight but last few hours wind has been SSE 2-8mph. 1010.5 hPa

Another load of strong winds passing through later tonight, forecasts showing as gusts of 45-55mph for here.
Looks to be very strong though up North.

 

Edited January 2, 2018 by lettice

[knocker]

Pretty lousy here at the moment.Low  stratus with moderate rain/drizzle and fog/mist

[ARTDEMOLE]

6.6c. Overcast and Rain. Humidity 88% rh. Pressure 989.6 hPa.

[John88B]

Deleted

Edited January 2, 2018 by John88B

[Mapantz]

Very damp and dark.

Temp: 10.2°C - Hum: 97% - Dew: 9.7°C - Bar: 1004.94hPa (Falling quickly) - Rain: 4mm - Wind: WSW @ 14mph, gusting 30mph.

[John88B]

 

Interesting tweet from Fergie for those who like their cold weather.

Yes, plus models will struggle to capture how/when this all gets popped by mobility returning (which may be a rather torturous sequential affair, rather than all in one go). Either way, the risk is evident for most widespread cold conditions thus-far in winter 17-18.

[matt111]

Dull and damp with drizzle. 9.6°C. 

[MP-R]

Very mild since the earlier rain, nearly 11C. Doesn't feel as such in the wind though.

[festivalking]

Happy New year all!  Looking forward to some stormy wet weather tonight. Dartmoor is a bog fest more than normal so with more rain on the way tonight I suspect alot of flooding on local roads. Burrator reservoir returned to over flowing during the weekend as well. Moving forward, well something is coming from the east! As others have alluded to on the MAD thread could be a 2 or 3 day bone chiller for our region even when temps start to rise they won't be running into double figures. East then, snow chances? Minimal as yet, we have some wintery stuff progged for saturday here more bits and pieces rather than anything major.  Looks like most of the region will be dry. If snow is you thing we want this 2 or 3 easterley cold snap to continue and hope we get some moisture bumping into the cold from the west. As we know cold air from the east is alot drier than cold air from the north west so one would hope if a snow event was to occur it would be less marginal as have been the other attempts this season. 

You have to admit we have had more cold or less mild snaps and more near misses than most winters and we are but a third of the way through the winter.....mind you I 'll keep looking out for snow till March 12th, why? 2013......I say no more.

[Ciderwithrosie]

Overcast , and a slight breeze starting to show itself . Seems rather mild although a little chilly in the gusts . 

If the forecast is right then it's batten down the hatches tonight and tomorrow before a colder snap arrives . Sounds great fun! 

[Mapantz]

26 minutes ago, festivalking said:

You have to admit we have had more cold or less mild snaps and more near misses than most winters and we are but a third of the way through the winter.....mind you I 'll keep looking out for snow till March 12th, why? 2013......I say no more

My own stats say otherwise for here, FK. I had less frosts in December 2017 than in December 2016. The minimum temps during those frosts were lower in 2016 too.

[festivalking]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

My own stats say otherwise for here, FK. I had less frosts in December 2017 than in December 2016. The minimum temps during those frosts were lower in 2016 too.

Fair do! Inter-regional differences! Been fresher down here but thats more to do with elevation i reckon and more weather coming in on a fresh norwester. Yes last year I remember you were all having those frosts and I wondered what all the fuss was about!

What say this weather from the east then not that it shows much in terms of extreme weather yet,  it has to be your best opportunity for some cold and snow! February 94 we had snow up in worth matravers think that cold weather came from the east with a front moving up from france....heady days!

[Mapantz]

Just now, festivalking said:

Fair do! Inter-regional differences! Been fresher down here but thats more to do with elevation i reckon and more weather coming in on a fresh norwester. Yes last year I remember you were all having those frosts and I wondered what all the fuss was about!

What say this weather from the east then not that it shows much in terms of extreme weather yet,  it has to be your best opportunity for some cold and snow! February 94 we had snow up in worth matravers think that cold weather came from the east with a front moving up from france....heady days!

December was an enjoyable month (weather-wise) - loved the strong winds, heavy showers and some thunder. January has started off good too. I do like the prospect of something colder though, Winter's with wind storms interspersed with cold shots are right up my alley!

[Mapantz]

That's the highest forecast winds for over a year..

[Dorsetbred]

17 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That's the highest forecast winds for over a year..

@Mapantz, what time are expecting it peak here. I've looked at the NW wind forecast and it seems to drop slightly by tomorrow morning (6). I have a dustbin to go out, but as it recycle stuff, the bin is so light and the road is hammered with a SW, so the contents would be over/down the street if I stick it out there tonight I reckon. What say you?

 

Edited January 2, 2018 by Dorsetbred

[Mapantz]

Just now, Dorsetbred said:

@Mapantz, what time are expecting it peak here. I've looked at the NW wind forecast and it seems to drop slightly by tomorrow morning (6). I have a dustbin to go out, but as it recycle stuff, the bin is so light and the road is hammered with a SW, so the contents would be over the estreet if I stick it out there tonight I reckon. What say you?

 

Difficult to say at the moment. I was just looking at some obs against the forecasts, and it seems the winds are behind schedule at the moment. I'd probably punt for 11pm/12am.

My recycling as been out since Friday, as the xmas schedule showed it to be 2 days behind. However, they never came around, and so everyone's wheelie bins are still out, with nearly everyone also putting extra  bags on top of the bins. I can see exactly what'll happen with that.. 

 I've got a huge separate bug full up of recycling because of them no emptying last week, it's a complete cock-up!

[matt111]

Fortunately the rubbish here went out last night so no problems with that. Will be interesting to see what the wind speeds are later on. 

Edited January 2, 2018 by matt111

[lettice]

Met office wind speeds through last Autumn/Winter were forecast very much higher by a good 10-15mph than they turned out.

The speeds here through all the forecast updates today have stayed at 45-55mph forecasts, strongest for a few hours at 9pm through midnight.
But its a 6pm start tonight for twelve hours of strong winds, so quite a long breezy time.

Our main bin goes out tomorrow a day later. Thankfully it has a lot of heavy non recyclable stuff from Christmas food wrapping that will weigh it down tomorrow.

[lettice]

13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Difficult to say at the moment. I was just looking at some obs against the forecasts, and it seems the winds are behind schedule at the moment. I'd probably punt for 11pm/12am.

Really like your Cucumlus graphs and gauges, so much better than my old Weather Display ones. 
Must look at upgrading to those this year at some point for quick views when grabbing all or any devices.

 

Edited January 2, 2018 by lettice

[Daniel*]

Wonder why the cases are concentrated in Cornwall..

 

[Dorsetbred]

26 minutes ago, lettice said:

Really like your Cucumlus graphs and gauges, so much better than my old Weather Display ones. 
Must look at upgrading to those this year at some point for quick views when grabbing all or any devices.

 

Have to agree, visually very effective, and a good source of information. Now we just have to convince Mapantz to hire out his services, to us not so websavvy folks..

[Dorsetbred]

Right so pressure is beginning to drop now @ 2mb/hr, wind is winding up, here we go.....Wind is up to 22knots over the harbour

Edited January 2, 2018 by Dorsetbred