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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards


Nick L

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
17 minutes ago, Ciderwithrosie said:

I'd love to, but have been adopted ourselves by a three legged one. She's v ill though and I'm nit sure if she will need to be put to sleep. :sorry:

well what a day weatherwise . Belting down earlier, niw the wind has picked up , raining again and the wind has a bite to it ! 

I see the met office has given a widespread warning about gales etc . What fun ! 

Thanks for even considering. This one arrived day after boxing day in the snow, curled up in the porch on a bit of dog blanket that had been dumped out the car and has been there ever since. I've made a bit of a shelter for it but it really needs a home. My dogs would just worry the poor thing to death, not malicious but working stock spaniels are utterly convinced every living thing needs rooting out, persuaded to fly or picked up and delivered to my feet.

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire

Something to keep some of us interested as the flow turns colder from the W/NW. Through tomorrow. 

6PM....gif MIDNIGHT.....gif

Edited by Mark N
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

The NetWx SR model shows lot's of wintriness for pretty much all of our region tomorrow eve. I can't post charts  right now... I say can't, i meant to say, I can't be bothered. :D

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

The NetWx SR model shows lot's of wintriness for pretty much all of our region tomorrow eve. I can't post charts  right now... I say can't, i meant to say, I can't be bothered. :D

So does that include the microclimate or not?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
5 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

So does that include the microclimate or not?

It certainly does!

In fact, shower activity is quite profound on the SR model. I could imagine that if you're in a lucky (or unlucky) place, continual lines of showers could produce some large-ish rain totals as well.

here's a good illustration:

viewimage.thumb.png.cdbb01782812df884bf516e508658d69.png

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It certainly does!

In fact, shower activity is quite profound on the SR model. I could imagine that if you're in a lucky (or unlucky) place, continual lines of showers could produce some large-ish rain totals as well.

here's a good illustration:

viewimage.thumb.png.cdbb01782812df884bf516e508658d69.png

I’ll take that! If it’s rain that’s fine if it’s snow, I’m down £50

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Posted
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: warm summers,gales, thunder lightning frosty mornings .
  • Location: Taunton Somerset
35 minutes ago, jethro said:

Thanks for even considering. This one arrived day after boxing day in the snow, curled up in the porch on a bit of dog blanket that had been dumped out the car and has been there ever since. I've made a bit of a shelter for it but it really needs a home. My dogs would just worry the poor thing to death, not malicious but working stock spaniels are utterly convinced every living thing needs rooting out, persuaded to fly or picked up and delivered to my feet.

I've pm'd you. 

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
24 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It certainly does!

In fact, shower activity is quite profound on the SR model. I could imagine that if you're in a lucky (or unlucky) place, continual lines of showers could produce some large-ish rain totals as well.

here's a good illustration:

viewimage.thumb.png.cdbb01782812df884bf516e508658d69.png

Question is will it settle anywhere if it is snow?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Question is will it settle anywhere if it is snow?

The usual caveats apply to that, NK. If you're on higher ground, quite likely to get a dusting. 100m < is unlikely to accumulative, if it did in heavier precip, it probably wouldn't last very long.

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
9 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Question is will it settle anywhere if it is snow?

Short answer: knowing our luck - NO

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
3 minutes ago, khodds said:

Short answer: knowing our luck - NO

Just watched the national forecast and fear not she clearly states that it will be rain south of the M4!! :diablo::wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
1 minute ago, Andy Bown said:

Also the ground temperature is nowhere near low enough to sustain snow cover. 

See i think it isnt too bad... not had any mild weather in weeks really and plenty of frost and dull cool/cold days?

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Posted
  • Location: Warminster
  • Location: Warminster

Hi all, new to all this and i live in warminster and can't help but wonder why the forecasts vary so much from site to site, these 2 images are netweather and met office for Friday, i know which one i'd like to see but who do i trust?

Capture.PNG

Capture1.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
3 minutes ago, Nick Croker said:

Hi all, new to all this and i live in warminster and can't help but wonder why the forecasts vary so much from site to site, these 2 images are netweather and met office for Friday, i know which one i'd like to see but who do i trust?

Capture.PNG

Capture1.PNG

Neither because it is Friday... :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
24 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Just watched the national forecast and fear not she clearly states that it will be rain south of the M4!! :diablo::wallbash:

Fffffffffizzle..

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Posted
  • Location: Horton Heath , Eastleigh
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow snow
  • Location: Horton Heath , Eastleigh

I know the GFS precip charts are a bit hit and miss but I would expect a few flurries anywhere in our region for tomorrow  . Pretty much like December were  here in Winchester we had a few heavy bursts of snow with little settling . 

FE9EAEBB-F1F9-4A77-9EC9-8DD9BD5B1A27.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
1 hour ago, Nights King said:

Just watched the national forecast and fear not she clearly states that it will be rain south of the M4!! :diablo::wallbash:

I&#39;m not happy, in fact I&#39;m quite sad ?

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
1 minute ago, khodds said:

I&#39;m not happy, in fact I&#39;m quite sad ?

Haha! Swear filter caught me out ?

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Just now, khodds said:

Haha! Swear filter caught me out ?

There was me wondering if you were telling us your now 39 and it makes you sad.. :D

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
31 minutes ago, Choggy said:

I know the GFS precip charts are a bit hit and miss but I would expect a few flurries anywhere in our region for tomorrow  . Pretty much like December were  here in Winchester we had a few heavy bursts of snow with little settling . 

FE9EAEBB-F1F9-4A77-9EC9-8DD9BD5B1A27.jpeg

Looks like a dream...

Clearly model doesn't factor in the M4... :aggressive:

Edited by Nights King
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Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
1 hour ago, Nights King said:

See i think it isnt too bad... not had any mild weather in weeks really and plenty of frost and dull cool/cold days?

Therein lies the difference between the Mendips and other places. I've had 1 frost in the last week and that was only briefly one late evening before it got up to 3c+ by dawn. The weekend never got below 3c and today has been up to double figures. Even in December after a few properly frosty nights the snow which settled disappeared quickly.

I'm not discounting the likelihood of snow settling tomorrow evening/night, but unless there's an unexpected several inches from a persistent streamer (possible) I can't see it sustaining past mid morning on Wednesday.

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