South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards

[khodds]

4 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Still a few days out yet, not worth putting his neck out just yet if he doesn't need to ect and it might all get downgraded by Friday evening yet...

I notice you used the word MIGHT. I should change it to WILL 

[karlos1983]

My bet is the High ridges a bit closer to the uk shunting the colder air east. Tends to be the form over recent years. 

[Frosty_wsm]

7 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Still a few days out yet, not worth putting his neck out just yet if he doesn't need to ect and it might all get downgraded by Friday evening yet...

 

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

My bet is the High ridges a bit closer to the uk shunting the colder air east. Tends to be the form over recent years. 

What a depressing miserable bunch we have in here tonight lol. Even Ian f mentioned on the forecast that the north westerly is going to very cold for a wind from the nw (as in more colder than usual for a nw pm flow, can't remember exactly his words but it was something along those lines) 

The models, especially the gfs is showing some unusually cold uppers coming in from the nw, this doesn't look like your typical pm flow from a north  westerly. 

[Nights King]

1 minute ago, Smartie said:

 

What a depressing miserable bunch we have in here tonight lol. Even Ian f mentioned on the forecast that the north westerly is going to very cold for a wind from the nw (as in more colder than usual for a nw pm flow, can't remember exactly his words but it was something along those lines) 

The models, especially the gfs is showing some unusually cold uppers coming in from the nw, this doesn't look like your typical pm flow from a north  westerly. 

Problem is smartie we are wrong side of M4 

Looks reasonable currently but a long way off and always gets watered down in last 72 hours before event.

[SteveB]

Can help but think snow will be at a premium for these parts, usually the last place to see snow if there's any around, so setting my hopes low to save on disappointment down the line.

[kevvo]

9 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Problem is smartie we are wrong side of M4 

Looks reasonable currently but a long way off and always gets watered down in last 72 hours before event.

If it snows in south Dorset, then I shall presume that the Highways Agency have moved the M4 to link Guernsey with Jersey. 

[Frosty_wsm]

12 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Problem is smartie we are wrong side of M4 

Looks reasonable currently but a long way off and always gets watered down in last 72 hours before event.

Would have thought the M4 was the leat  of our  worries, the welsh mountains will be I expect but it wouldn't surprise me if all the parameters are right for snow, upper air temps, dew points, low thicknesses etc at times during next week, the question is will there be any precipitation around at the same time. 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Would have thought the M4 was the leat  of our  worries, the welsh mountains will be I expect but it wouldn't surprise me if all the parameters are right for snow, upper air temps, dew points, low thicknesses etc at times during next week, the question is will there be any precipitation around at the same time. 

Those winds could blow the mountains down 

problem solved lol

[matt111]

7 minutes ago, kevvo said:

If it snows in south Dorset, then I shall presume that the Highways Agency have moved the M4 to link Guernsey with Jersey. 

Wouldn’t even have a problem with marginality if it’s down there. 

[Nights King]

2 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Would have thought the M4 was the leat  of our  worries, the welsh mountains will be I expect but it wouldn't surprise me if all the parameters are right for snow, upper air temps, dew points, low thicknesses etc at times during next week, the question is will there be any precipitation around at the same time. 

At the moment its is more of a westerly which would bypass that little country called wales 

[Frosty_wsm]

2 minutes ago, Nights King said:

At the moment its is more of a westerly which would bypass that little country called wales 

We've  had sleet and snow showers from a w/nw wind before (I can remember driving round chasing the showers that were streaming in off the bristol channel)  it all depends on where that westerly originates from and next week it' coming from a very cold source and despite the sea track over the Atlantic the models are still showing some very low upper air temps over the uk  (for a w/nw wind!). 

[EllyTech]

I'm North of the M4 and I doubt it will snow here either. 

[Mapantz]

Zero chance of seeing anything snow-like down here. It's possible to get some hail thrown in to any thundery showers brought in from troughs.

We had between -7 and -8C uppers for a period back in December, and it still rained. The uppers above do not look particularly special for this part of the country.

[EllyTech]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

Zero chance of seeing anything snow-like down here. It's possible to get some hail thrown in to any thundery showers brought in from troughs.

We had between -7 and -8C uppers for a period back in December, and it still rained. The uppers above do not look particularly special for this part of the country.

It might snow in the South ... how convective will this spell be?

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, EllyTech said:

It might snow in the South ... how convective will this spell be?

It depends in what you  mean by South? I 100% guarantee it will not snow here.

As for convective potential, a little early to speculate with great detail, but coastal fringes will be most at risk, due to colder air travelling over warmer waters. The North & West will obviously fare best. But, i'll just wait until we get in to a higher resolution time frame, then have a gander and some charts to see what's occurring!

[EllyTech]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

It depends in what you  mean by South? I 100% guarantee it will not snow here.

As for convective potential, a little early to speculate with great detail, but coastal fringes will be most at risk, due to colder air travelling over warmer waters. The North & West will obviously fare best. But, i'll just wait until we get in to a higher resolution time frame, then have a gander and some charts to see what's occurring!

I was actually thinking Dorset/Devon (inland) perhaps South Gloucesterhire. My interest is piqued slightly (for you down there, not for me). 

[matt111]

It's still snowing on that live webcam I posted last night if anyone wants to see snow falling. You know just in case you've forgotten what it looks like. 

 

[karlos1983]

There will be some rather disappointed members next week who are convinced snows coming across the uk, I just can’t see it away from elevation myself. ?‍♂️

Edited January 11, 2018 by karlos1983

[matt111]

20 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

There will be some rather disappointed members next week who are convinced snows coming across the uk, I just can’t see it away from elevation myself. ?‍♂️

Being party pooper in the MAD thread now I see. 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, matt111 said:

Being party pooper in the MAD thread now I see. 

Lol no, just trying to keep them grounded  we all know that’s a waste of time 

[Bazray]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42657127

intresting forecast, I know he says the top third of the country will see snow, but a slight shift south and we could be in luck.

[matt111]

So potentially something interesting  one way or another next week. Just need to get through the borefest over the next few days first, mostly cloudy with the odd bit of drizzle and odd bright spell isn't my idea of interesting weather. 

[Dorsetbred]

1 hour ago, matt111 said:

It's still snowing on that live webcam I posted last night if anyone wants to see snow falling. You know just in case you've forgotten what it looks like. 

 

I often watch that webcam first thing on a Sunday morning, as they are turning out the bars to go home, with the local gendarmes cruising around. Apologies I know it’s not our area, but it’s a great view, along with Canmore (Canada). & Kimmirut if you really want to see snow..

Edited January 11, 2018 by Dorsetbred

[Dorsetbred]

Overcast & gloomy tonight, currently 5.8C with a mere breath of wind movement..

[matt111]

4 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Overcast & gloomy tonight, currently 5.8C with a mere breath of wind movement..

Very gloomy here, so gloomy I can't see out the window.