South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards

[Dorsetbred]

Day two, heavy rainfall, although no shift in temperature, sat flatlined @ 7.7°C, will be a while before any colder air drops down this far south..

Edited December 26, 2017 by Dorsetbred

[Nights King]

39 minutes ago, AWD said:

Why?  What's happening at 9pm?

Well rain hopefully start to show signs of transition to snow towards mid night so here's hoping.. 

5.1c currently. 

Edited December 26, 2017 by Nights King

[Nights King]

Please... Just once be right. 

[khodds]

6 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Please... Just once be right. 

I hope it is 

still 6.7c here according to my temperature gauge 

Edited December 26, 2017 by khodds

[SteveB]

Up to 114.8mm for the month so far.

Plenty more rain to come.

[SilverWolf]

Lovely out - 4c, windy, heavy rain.. 

[SteveB]

Temp here is the highest it's been all day, 6.5c and climbing.

[fromey]

Just watched the national forecast and not one mention of the Met office warnings

find that a little odd

fromey

[SteveB]

Temp is actually just starting to drop off a little, currently 6.3c

[Mapantz]

27 minutes ago, fromey said:

Just watched the national forecast and not one mention of the Met office warnings

find that a little odd

fromey

The same on ITV, just a small mention of some snow over the hills, for parts of the Midlands, then a mention of a 'slippy' start to tomorrow. 

[SteveB]

Just seen the forecast for our neck of the woods and snow was mentioned, more especially over high ground.

Not sure it's worth staying up to see wet snow falling at 3 in the morning, but if I'm awake I might have a look out of the window

Edited December 26, 2017 by SteveB

[Mapantz]

The temperature is climbing nicely, up to 8.8 now.

[Mark Parsons]

probably  a temperature  inversion as it's an occluded front ?

[Mapantz]

It won't be until at least midnight before the colder air begins to filter in to the North and West of the region.

It looks as though the center of the low is over me at the moment.

Edited December 26, 2017 by Mapantz

[Mark Parsons]

I never expect to see much on a rap around, being to the north of the low as it moves in is always best......

 

[Rich_Clements]

Localised flooding now, nothing major but some huge puddles on the roads.

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Rich_Clements said:

Localised flooding now, nothing major but some huge puddles on the roads.

Not to worry, RC...in future, kindly call them 'accumulations'!

[SilverWolf]

Hmmm looks interesting on the radar - more rain is turning to sleet and snow in Wales, and the rain is quite a way north of me now. The pivot could be interesting later, not sure for where...

[Nights King]

Friend from South West Wales at about 150 m reporting heavy snow earlier than forecast at mid night... 

[Singularity]

The most enthusiastic high-res model is the WRF-NMM 2 km variant, which was among the most accurate with the 11th Dec event; for example it captured the rain-sleet outcome for locations below 100 m or so.

Interestingly, that's absent this time, with snow all the way to sea level for a time. AROME features a lot of 'ice pellets' which I believe actually refers to icy rain i.e. sleet. ARPEGE is not pleasant for anywhere below 200 m, but it was too restrained with the last event and I sense it may be so again this time. The Met Office have mentioned the possibility of snow to increasingly low levels and without setting a cut-off elevation (differing from the 11th Dec event when they stated 100 m and proved very close to the mark).

So overall, it seems like there's a better chance with this event of those at below 100 m elevation seeing some falling, but I wouldn't count on it settling unless you get lucky with a prolonged heavy burst.

 

This model also shows the potential for some wintry showers overnight into Thursday. With winds falling lighter, temps could easily fall sub-zero in between, making for some hazardous icy stretches by Friday morning, accompanying some sporadic snow accumulations.  

Having this sort of potential on offer when high-latitude blocking has failed to materialise and a La Nina is making itself known is really not bad going for late December. 

We might be waiting a bit of a while afterwards for the next round of chances, though. Not convinced it will necessarily be all that long though; there are potential wildcards that could make themselves useful (before anyone asks, I can't say what due to legal requirements, sorry!).

Edited December 26, 2017 by Singularity

[festivalking]

Worth staying up for? Interestingly Princetown a further 200 metres up from here has snow most of the night predicted.

[SilverWolf]

On the midlands thread people living around Birmingham area saying it’s snowing now, and dew points dropped enough to let snow settle. Earlier than expected. 

[Beasterly]

Just heavy rain here.

[Bristawl Si]

Raining and 6c.

[Cleeve Hill]

Cheltenham. 4c raining.