South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards

[khodds]

2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

worth noting, the new system in Biscay is throwing up ppn considerably further north than model output I've seen and is already showing up on radar in the SW approaches....one to possibly monitor for tomorrow morning

How reliable is the NMM? 

[bobbydog]

hi chaps, any of you lot in the southampton/chandlers ford area? if so, is that snow on the radar?

or warm snow like i had earlier (lying radar!)

[Polar Bear]

1 minute ago, ajpoolshark said:

worth noting, the new system in Biscay is throwing up ppn considerably further north than model output I've seen and is already showing up on radar in the SW approaches....one to possibly monitor for tomorrow morning

Oh look the M4 shield holding fast again 

[Dorsetbred]

2 minutes ago, khodds said:

My 9 yr old is turning into me! She’s been glued to the radar all day and running to the windows every five minutes! That’s my girl 

Yay way to go, get 'em learning young I say..,sounds like you're making good progress, I wish my kids or Grand kids were interested..

[Ciderwithrosie]

13 minutes ago, dec10snow said:

Finally stopped raining now, wish I had a station and had measured how many mm we've had today, would be a fairly high number! It's not even forecast to get below freezing tonight now, but could still be issues with ice on roads!

 Well, 14.1 Mm has fallen today temp down to 1C . 

[Ashme]

Clutching at straws here in Ilminster, but if I stand in the right place behind my outside lights we have.......... Sleet with the odd flake ???

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, khodds said:

How reliable is the NMM? 

it's been pretty much spot on today........like all models though it has his successes and failures

[Nights King]

Chris fawkes says he thinks storm maybe as much as 100 miles out.... 

What exactly would that mean?

[fromey]

Well if he’s right enjoy what you have, if you had any that is!

[Chris K]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

Chris fawkes says he thinks storm maybe as much as 100 miles out.... 

What exactly would that mean?

perhaps some snowfall for C/S and the SE corner. I don't think it'll be far enough out to mean a shift right up to SW/W country etc.

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Chris fawkes says he thinks storm maybe as much as 100 miles out.... 

What exactly would that mean?

The models are full of s***

[coldfront]

9 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

hi chaps, any of you lot in the southampton/chandlers ford area? if so, is that snow on the radar?

or warm snow like i had earlier (lying radar!)

Hi bobydog, I'm in Chilworth very near Chandlers Ford and it has been snowing here for the last half hour. Settling on cars but very wet snow.

 

[karlos1983]

@bobbydog it’s rained here all day, it’s only fair it rains for you too LOL I mean good luck 

Edited December 10, 2017 by karlos1983

[Dorsetbred]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

@bobbydog it’s rained here all day, it’s only fair it rains for you too LOL I mean good luck 

Yeah, as sure as heck it's been atypical Southern UK winters day, lots of rain, plenty of breeze and time to watch the rest of the Uk enjoy white precipitation.. Yep that's SW&SE definition of December..

[bobbydog]

Just now, coldfront said:

Hi bobydog, I'm in Chilworth very near Chandlers Ford and it has been snowing here for the last half hour. Settling on cars but very wet snow.

 

thanks, it looks like its headed my way but it'll probably warm fog by the time it gets here 

[bobbydog]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

@bobbydog it’s rained here all day, it’s only fair it rains for you too LOL I mean good luck 

lol it chucked it down all morning then got a bit windy then... nothing...

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

lol it chucked it down all morning then got a bit windy then... nothing...

Back in 2009/10 I had some great pub locked nights in Horsham in the snow, when I worked that way. Distant memory now ?

Edited December 10, 2017 by karlos1983

[Dorsetbred]

Haha, DP has hit 0C and  the precipitation has disappeared... classic..

Edited December 10, 2017 by Dorsetbred

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

thanks, it looks like its headed my way but it'll probably warm fog by the time it gets here 

i take that back. a 'horsham shaped' gap has appeared in the snow band..

 

 

[karlos1983]

@khodds my dp reader thing is dodgy as well, always seems to be reading to high. Annoying!

[nettie]

Just looked out of window to see my car has snow all over it !!!!!!!  No snow on the ground . 

[karlos1983]

RE the centre of the low Chris Fawkes is talking about, it looks exactly as modelled to me, he’s a touch optimistic if you ask me. 

I might just get really drunk so I fall asleep early and hope to wake up to white out conditions. Saves radar disappointment 

Edited December 10, 2017 by karlos1983

[khodds]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

@khodds my dp reader thing is dodgy as well, always seems to be reading to high. Annoying!

It is really annoying! I wonder why?

[A.J]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

RE the centre of the low Chris Fawkes is talking about, it looks exactly as modelled to me, he’s a touch optimistic if you ask me. 

I might just get really drunk so I fall asleep early and hope to wake up to white out conditions. Saves radar disappointment 

the ppn field is someway north than modelled...and added moisture from the system is what might reinvigorate the dying occlusion straddling southern England...the key key word is 'might'.....where it goes from here is the question....I reckon you might get lucky mate

[chapmanslade]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

RE the centre of the low Chris Fawkes is talking about, it looks exactly as modelled to me, he’s a touch optimistic if you ask me. 

Why would he be 'optimistic' - he is only providing information based on his view of where things are at present. Unlike many of the armchair forecasters on here he is paid to be accurate, as literally lives can depend on it - so suggesting it is further north when it isn't would be a quick way to lose your job as a forecaster. This storm will have a big impact on the Channel and Northern France so it is important he gets it right.