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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

Looks like a period of very unsettled weather after Christmas is locked in now.  Very strong support in both the GEFS and EPS for this to happen.

Nothing wintry on the horizon (at least for lowland parts). Chin up folks - there are still ~70 days of winter left...

 

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ASSESSING THE CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT AND LAYING TO REST SOME OF THE MYTHS

I have noted some of the erroneous and sometimes misguided comments regarding the model output that crop up on this thread from time to time. These can be misleading and I’ll address a couple of them now before I get into the meat of this post and one of my cross-model analyses.

I never have any intention of being disrespectful to anybody, especially towards fellow posters. I am not criticising anyone and I will not mention any names. If one or two of you feel that some of my remarks are directed at you, please accept this in the positive spirit and constructive way that it is intended.

The Azores High:

Quite a few on here make statements like “with the Azores high always appearing in that position on the charts we’ll have no chance of seeing colder weather”. Firstly, the Azores high is a quasi-permanent feature. It forms part of the belt of sub-tropical high pressure that is almost ever present around the globe at those latitudes. Even when the jet stream sometimes takes a much more southerly route in winter, the HP is rarely displaced for more than a few days and mostly builds back in very quickly once any LPs clear away. This is the climatological norm in all seasons of the year.

When the pattern becomes more amplified across the Atlantic, the Azores HP can ridge northwards (occasionally north-west and sometimes north-east towards the UK). It can push right up into Iceland/Greenland and link up with HP in the Arctic and form a block. This pattern, which can assist in producing many of our northerly incursions are normally transient (as with have all seven northerlies we've seen so far this winter since mid-November).

More rarely, the Azores HP can link up with a Scandinavian HP forming a belt of HP right across the UK from south-west to north-east. In winter this set up can produce some of our more prolonged cold spells. Even when this pattern is established, the HP link will rarely last for more than several days. The HP can continue but reverts to separate cells with the Azores HP resuming its more usual position with the other cell close to the UK or continuing to our north-east (Scandi HPs can be long lasting features once fully established). When the cold air has been delivered to the UK it can continue despite there being an Azores HP close to its normal location.

Part of the misunderstanding is probably due to the lack of cold spells in recent winters. The typically flat patterns with the jet stream often firing straight over us, with a string of LPs moving through close to the UK, with the Azores HP almost stationery for days on end, can make one think that this set up simply cannot change. It is other forces and factors that will bring a change from the norm.

In my “Split PVs” post yesterday (on page 83) I showed a lot of charts during some of our coldest winter spells. In some of these the Azores HP is displaced slightly from its normal position (whether that’s north, south, east or west) but more often than not it’s still very close to the Azores! Here’s an example from a more recent cold spell during January 2013:

      archivesnh-2013-1-22-0-0.png

The UK and much of western, central and southern Europe were under a slack LP, with HP over northern Europe and Scandinavia as well through Iceland, Greenland and into the Arctic but where is the Azores HP – right over the Azores!

To have a closer look at that cold spell and any of the others I referred to in my post yesterday, here is the link to the NCEP Re-Analysis charts on Meteoceil:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=22&month=1&hour=0&year=2013&map=4&region=&mode=2&type=ncep

The Euro HP:

Much the same applies to the HP which sometimes sets itself up over central and southern Europe and has been an all too familiar feature in some of our more recent predominantly mild winters. So much so, that it has been nicknamed on this thread the dreaded “Euro-slug”. Although HP in North Africa and the Mediterranean is a common feature in winter too (again, close to the broad belt of sub-tropical HP) the Euro HP is NOT a quasi-permanent feature but can be quite persistent with some winter patterns. When the UK and Western Europe are under a typical south-westerly flow with LP mostly to our west and north, then there will be HP closer to the south. Sometimes this HP drifts northwards towards southern or central Europe. In the last few winters it has out-stayed its welcome and feeds some very mild (sometimes sub-tropical) air across the UK. So, definitely not a “coldies” friend.

To say that we cannot easily move into a colder set up from there is quite wrong. If we get a pattern change to something much more amplified (eg: the MJO moving into its 7, 8 and 1 phases which are usually much more favourable for HLB) the “Euro-slug” can drift northwards. Quite a few Scandi highs have arisen out of this situation, quite often with only a little amplification from a MLB or flat pattern (of course Scandi HPs can evolve in a number of other ways too). They were modelled quite a few times last winter (especially on the ECM D10 charts!) but never verified.

The message is, do not get too bogged down with patterns that you believe can seem to last forever as they will not. In fact with the current unusual set up, recent model output has been suggesting the possibility of something very different this winter with some interesting changes in the offing. With this in mind, it’s time for one of my cross-model analyses. This time, I shall focus on the D6 output so that I can include all the main models with charts for 1300 on Boxing Day, December 26th. I shall use the 12z T+144 output which has been rolling out while I have been writing this post:

                        UKMO                                               GFS                                            GEM                                        ECM   

      UN144-21.GIF            gfsnh-0-144.png?12?12          gemnh-0-144.png        ECH1-144.GIF  

The UKMO shows the strong push of WWA from the east Pacific, through Alaska and towards the Pole and on into the northern Canadian islands through to Greenland. There are signs that this could produce a proper warm Greenland high (rather than the faux cold ones over the up to 3 km thick ice sheet and plateau there which the JMA usually defaults to without any adjustment to mean sea-level pressure). The ridge of HP (high pressure) extends down through Iceland. There is a small LP close to the UK bringing down a cold northerly behind it. Then "not another one" - yes, what looks like a slider LP to our north-west and we all know now what they are capable of! Remember, however, it will only be rather cold initially and conditions would likely be too marginal for wintry precipitation accept over higher ground further north. The PV is weaker, half split and under a lot of stress. The main lobe of the vortex is now displaced further east with low pressure (LP) over northern Scandinavia (Scandi) and north-west Russia.  A steady improvement building on earlier runs and showing some potential for the colder air to dig further south with (perhaps) rather more widespread wintry precipitation a day or two later should the pattern evolve further along these lines.

The GFS is broadly similar but with an even more intense Arctic HP and rather stronger LP closer to our north-east and some more wintry precipitation over the north (particularly for higher elevations) and a cold Polar Maritime flow looking set for several days, offering further wintry potential.

The GEM is even more progressive than UKMO and GFS, with the Arctic HP pushing even more strongly into Greenland (getting quite close to a proper warm Greenland HP but it doesn't quite make it on this run). It has a rather stronger lobe of the vortex over the far north-east of the US and eastern Canada. The lobe to the east and north-east is more extensive but slightly weaker (albeit a similar strength to UKMO and GFS). The UK is under a slack and rather cold northerly to cyclonic flow - again probably not quite cold enough for any snowfall, except over northern higher ground. It does look like the cold will deepen somewhat during the next day or two with marginal opportunities for more widespread wintry precipitation. The LP to the west-south west is not without interest as it's on an east-south-easterly course towards southern England. Again a chance of something a little wintry. Then as the LP moves on south-eastwards it looks set to bring in a rather colder flow from the north.

The ECM has just finished rolling out, so my comments relate to comparing it to all the other model output. The last to update and the most progressive of all at T+144. I'll check soon but if this thread hasn't been really busy this evening, something is very wrong! What an amazing D7 chart and very close to a fully split PV.  I'm not concerned about a "seemingly" less good looking D10 chart. If you re-read my post (on page 83) PVs simply do not remain split for more than a couple of days - its what follows a week or so later that's important. So, let's enjoy this evolution and await some likely eye candy later this week.  

                  NAVGEM                                           JMA                                     GEFS Control                              GEFS Mean

      navgemnh-0-144.png           JN144-21.GIF          gensnh-0-1-144.png          gensnh-21-1-144.png 

The NAVGEM continues to be even more progressive than the other models with even stronger WAA pushing into the Arctic with a strong elongated cut-off Arctic HP. It has much weaker LP over both US/Canada and north-west Russia through Scandinavia and across to the UK. Like the others (not mentioned so far), there is a third much deeper lobe of LP over north-east Russia and north-east Asia. Generally the PV looks pretty weak and very disrupted. The UK is under a quite large but fairly shallow area of LP which is pushing south-south-eastwards and introducing some rather colder air from the north - again not looking quite cold enough for any widespread wintry precipitation at this stage. 

The latest JMA (just out) shows that they have finally joined the party. They "had" consistently been much less bullish than the other models in its recent runs with the WWA pushing into the Arctic from the Pacific/Alaska side but they now have produced a strong Arctic HP. It has its usual "cold" faux HP over Greenland or is it? With the "warm" Arctic HP pushing south this may warm up its Greenland cousin - with this models' deficiency in this region I would not be surprised to a see a record 1090 mb HP there soon which would be around 40 to 50 mb overstated! Perhaps I'm been a bit too flippant. It's a decent model and occasionally outperforms the  "big 3". The JMA's distribution and strength of LPs is quite similar to the other models. It has an interesting feature with a small LP moving south down into the North Sea with a northerly in its rear. It also has rather lower 850 temperatures moving in with sub -4c and even sub -6c. I'm not sure how cold the surface layers are (not shown on these JMA models - neither is snowfall) but some of that large area of precipitation may well have quite a wintry flavour to it!

The GEFS control run is remarkably similar to the GFS operational run which has very often been far from the case in recent runs - so no need to comment further this time. Now, I'm getting really excited. The GEFS mean can be misleading as it averages out all 20 of the ensembles, plus the control run and the GFS operational run and needs to be examined with caution. To see the "mean" so amplified came as a big surprise. This means that many of the ensembles (may even be the largest group on this run for the first time) will have even higher pressure over the Pole and an even weaker PV. So without further ado....

...Here is the GEFS Panel with the ensemble suite:

               gens_panel_kbu5.png

This shows 2 fully split PVs with all the rest at various stages of disruption and varying strengths of LP. At only D7, this is remarkably progressive but not that out of kilter with much of the other current model output. As I can never enlarge those panels - only slightly larger when you click on them (is there a way to make them larger?), I have selected four perturbations with full size charts to show a range of evolutions:

          GEFS Perturbation  2               GEFS Perturbation 4                  GEFS Perturbation 19             GEFS Perturbation 20

       gensnh-2-1-144.png         gensnh-4-1-144.png          gensnh-19-1-144.png         gensnh-20-1-144.png

I will not comment any further on these ensemble charts but do permit me to go into deep FI with my favourite "D16" chart:

Perturbation 9: gensnh-9-1-384.png 

A beautiful hugely split PV and almost the most extreme example I've ever seen (going back to 1946/47 archive charts)! If that verified, even the Daily Express would struggle to find a suitable headline! An easterly almost there with an Atlantic LP with a lovely negative tilt - Happy New Year!!! At D16 there are 6 of the ens getting much closer to easterlies with a strong build of heights to our north-east - exactly what coldies should be hoping for.

Overall, back to reality, some excellent progress today with all the models really latching on to a broad pattern change starting from around next week and perhaps taking another 10 days or so to complete a change (or not - still could go wrong). How they get there and whether the UK can achieve a significant cold spell is still to be decided. 

I'll be back again tomorrow - you just try and keep me away right now!  I think it's high time I did one of my temperature checks to see just what we might expect down the line from this output. 

 

Edited by Guest
Correct typos and check charts & links
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

It is? 

Anyway, rather than debate gfs v ecm I think we’re on the way to talking wedges again 

remember what happened last time we talked wedges ........

this ec op run shows how difficult it’s going to be to stop the energy from the Siberian lobe heading west at too high a latitude to stop us merely feeling the force of the northern arm in its wake. When there is a transfer of vortex fr M Siberia to Canada on our side of the pole it is nearly always accompanied by a strong pulse of the northern arm heading across the Atlantic. It’s not over by any means but it’s a tough gig to pull off !

I do like a good wedge ;) 

IMG_3007.thumb.JPG.d2eebab7ac0f3364a101fc4516d2f012.JPG

With quite a strong trend today to dig the jet notabley south I think some small surface highs behind passing lows could well be our best chance at getting some snow from the following system. 

One to watch for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
  • Location: Caldercruix, North Lanarkshire - 188m asl
43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I can't post the link on this stupid laptop but unless you live in high ground in wales or the Pennines/peaks they are not worth posting...

Well would you look at that.... there are other places outwith England, much to the shock and amazement of some I'm sure. 

ECM snow charts show a healthy snow potential for Scotland (the bit to the north of the centre of everything) and also Northern Ireland (the bit to the north west and over the blue stuff, from the centre of everything). 

A balanced model discussion would be appreciated (honestly no digs at anyone in particular) and as these ECM snow charts show, there is most definitely a wintery interest in the 'UK' .... and it is affecting a similar size of area (if not bigger) of the snow affected parts of wales and the midlands during the slider-gate carry on. 

The bias in this thread genuinely leads many to not even bother visiting and this is evident in the regionals by the disgruntled members.

These charts definitely show that there is potential for some quite disruptive wintery weather (granted they are to be taken with a huge pinch of salt) but it still highlights potential. It will ofcourse change on subsequent model runs but corrections or upgrades either way could indeed lead the wintery potential further south. Its far better having potential than SWlys with rain and mild mush and no hint of any surprises.

IMG_7177.thumb.PNG.71b72e677f735ad89b1a3295f3c9b3db.PNG

IMG_7176.thumb.PNG.18cd48568674204d37ab4a35bd2c2e87.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm just itching to get to next week, not just because it's Christmas but because that's when the models show interesting weather during the festive / new year period..roll on!!!:santa-emoji:

Aye Frosty, and things could hardly be less interesting for the coming week...After that, though, it's all about periods of rain, one or two hoolies thrown in, and some snow on Ben Nevis and even, with a wee slice of luck, atop the Shard...All to play for - but more runs needed!:D

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
27 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Again, these so-called snow depth charts from the EC are utter nonsense.

I would not say that Nick..they were pretty good for the snow event recently...

Granted they shifted things south late in the day as the models shifted the slider.. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire

Why do some of you consistantly look so far into the future, guessing what will happen in F I?  What about the shorter time span?  Next week looks interesting yet is totally ignored in the haste to talk about possible snow and nothing else.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Aye Frosty, and things could hardly be less interesting for the coming week...After that, though, it's all about periods of rain, one or two hoolies thrown in, and some snow on Ben Nevis and even, with a wee slice of luck, atop the Shard...All to play for - but more runs needed!:D

Aye Ed..I mean pete, the weather / models for this week is as interesting as watching paint dry..bring on the disturbed, stormy weather:yahoo:

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
10 minutes ago, Ukwoody said:

Why do some of you consistantly look so far into the future, guessing what will happen in F I?  What about the shorter time span?  Next week looks interesting yet is totally ignored in the haste to talk about possible snow and nothing else.

ECM = Cold rain next week 

ECH0-192.GIF?20-0

GFS = Cold rain with back edge sleet at elevation

gfs-2-132.png?12

No cold pool in place so any runner that MAY happen is running into milder uppers

gfs-0-150.png?12

Further than that is up for interesting debate until the lack of data gets rolled out:crazy:

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire

I was predominatly referring to the low pressure system and gale force winds

 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
12 minutes ago, Ukwoody said:

Why do some of you consistantly look so far into the future, guessing what will happen in F I?  What about the shorter time span?  Next week looks interesting yet is totally ignored in the haste to talk about possible snow and nothing else.

To be frank, most people come onto this forum in Winter to look for snow/wintry possibilities.  Rain and gales, though interesting weather, doesn't really float most people's boats especially as this is the default here in the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 hour ago, Hull snow said:

Can someone post ecm snow depth chart please

Unless you live in areas where snow is common it isn't really worth looking at them, snow usually comes as a surprise between 24-48h in the hires models, however  lamp post staring is probably still the best indicator for snow 

Edited by ArHu3
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Posted
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes
  • Location: Milford Haven, Pembrokeshire
5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

To be frank, most people come onto this forum in Winter to look for snow/wintry possibilities.  Rain and gales, though interesting weather, doesn't really float most people's boats especially as this is the default here in the UK.

and half of the debate belongs in ramps and moans thread. The model discussions are often stab in the dark guessing at FI timescales by the uninitiated and if it doesn't include snow then it doesn't matter.  That surely is NOT the main purpose of this thread when everything but snow gets ignored.  This used to be a good thread for learning and open discussion about sensible charts etc, but nowadays it is mainly ramping.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Not to be picky GP but the composite would be colder than the GEFS with the jet track further south and lower heights further into Europe.

Given the jet track is still subject to revision this far out isn't it impossible to know at this stage whether the UK might still at times remain on the polar side of the jet.

 

Nick, you've not mentioned the SS Save Christmas recently.  Can I assume it's sunk without trace with the loss of all souls on board?

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife

Tuesday & Wednesday next week will bring some strong winds but nothing to get too excited about. Typical UK winter low pressure systems bringing blustery to "hod on tae yer bunnet conditions. Friday looks a bit more interesting but a wee tad too far out for me to speculate as to whether anything interesting will come from it. @Bring Back1962-63 keep the posts coming, love your input :D

Cheers

5a3acf1a38f43_ScreenShot2017-12-20at20_57_04.thumb.png.f9e201958c804eff7d9eaa46cdd5b264.png5a3acf30d320e_ScreenShot2017-12-20at20_57_29.thumb.png.ab30c3c047ebf15c3023fce7d55b9949.png5a3acf43903f3_ScreenShot2017-12-20at20_57_52.thumb.png.fd9656cf1ac8303a6373d1f30565a166.png5a3acf597874f_ScreenShot2017-12-20at20_58_06.thumb.png.7eef5b0cb564a0eda1c68ae21a3bc34f.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You’re frankly wrong by that assessment on both EC and GFS. Upland parts of northern Britain would see snow for sure. The slider low event, the upper air temps were really not that cold -2C to -4C 850hPa quite widely. This did not inhibit snow from falling and accumulating steadily giving large swathes a very good event. The uppers tell a very limited story, typically most important factor is WBFL and dew point. You also have to consider, I notice this a lot the uppers drop closer to the time. Not by much, but it can make all the difference, unlike some folk I see wintry potential not necessarily for the high ground either. This is an evolving situation, why are folk already saying so and so is going to happen? 

We had had -8 uppers down to the south coast preceding the "slider". That is not on the agenda at all so far for next week.Scottish mountains etc will always see some action.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You’re frankly wrong by that assessment on both EC and GFS. Upland parts of northern Britain would see snow for sure. The slider low event, the upper air temps were really not that cold -2C to -4C 850hPa quite widely. This did not inhibit snow from falling and accumulating steadily giving large swathes a very good event. The uppers tell a very limited story, typically most important factor is WBFL and dew point. You also have to consider, I notice this a lot the uppers drop closer to the time. Not by much, but it can make all the difference, unlike some folk I see wintry potential not necessarily for the high ground either. This is an evolving situation, why are folk already saying so and so is going to happen? 

Last time we had a potent northerly/north-westerly that contributed to some home grown cold.  Nothing doing this time...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Nick, you've not mentioned the SS Save Christmas recently.  Can I assume it's sunk without trace with the loss of all souls on board?

:D Very funny.  It’s taken on some water but the lifeboats haven’t been lowered yet !  It depends whether we get some trough disruption to the west and can get more energy going se.

There have been a lot of changes over recent days so I’m going to hold on from issuing this :help:.

I think we need a few more runs before sending out the SOS.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Plenty to be happy with, sinking jet, more interesting outlooks...and my solar wind burst to hit next couple of days.  :D

I think there’ll be a few ‘curtain twitchers’ come Xmas Day and more likely Boxing Day.  But not in my mild Redhill

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

While we wait for some 'proper' (cold!!) charts to turn up I thought I'd look at tonight's GEFS 12z spread for 10 days out (31st Dec). It appears to be a case of good news and bad news. Interestingly, the biggest area of uncertainty in the NH at month end is over the UK.

5a3abb0e7fdf0_GEFSspread31Dec.thumb.png.bdba91798000e9f984ad7a004e77825c.png

 

 

To be fair the UK will alway be one of the most uncertain areas in the world because we are the boundary between a massive land mass and massive open water.

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