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Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

SE hangs on to the colder air at the surface through next week- pretty much coming up to the shortest day so i would imagine temps will fall quite low esp overnight in this setup-

GFSOPEU06_147_5.png

9-10C by mid-afternoon across the  SE next Tuesday, day of that chart, and the following night won't be cold given the flow is progged from the WSW

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offerman Seasoned

offerman

Posted
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Most(see in interests section.)
  • Location: Frome 330ft ASL
Posted

That Azores high is the culprit. Need that to migrate westward or northward then the fun would begin. It just seems too stationary . I wonder why it barely seems to move run after run week after week month after month? 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
7 minutes ago, Nick F said:

9-10C by mid-afternoon across the  SE next Tuesday, day of that chart, and the following night won't be cold given the flow is progged from the WSW

Yes it does seem to get progressively milder as go forward this run- temps in the low teens perhaps by the 21st-

 

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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted

Don't bin your white Christmas bets quite yet folks

image.thumb.png.07a9dab9423f8dc983530a56314a3f3d.png

image.thumb.png.3babe9274bc80ccda6f0e53fcba3a527.png

to be fair the ENS have shown a move to colder solutions this morning.

Fingers crossed. :)

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted
7 minutes ago, offerman said:

That Azores high is the culprit. Need that to migrate westward or northward then the fun would begin. It just seems too stationary . I wonder why it barely seems to move run after run week after week month after month? 

Well, the Azores high is a semi-permanent ridge, part of a belt of sub-tropical high pressure systems around the northern hemisphere, Californian high and Bermuda High to name but a few. So probably why it doesn't move much and often we see it extend into Europe when the trop PV is strong to our NW.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

LOL 

Scandy high on christmas day, and probably snow across much of the UK as the Atlantic moves in!!

(OK it wont last but..looks like staying cold with a continental drift)!!

Edited by northwestsnow
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL 

Scandy high on christmas day, and probably snow across much of the UK as the Atlantic moves in!!

(OK it wont last but..looks like staying cold with a continental drift)!!

Yep, Atlantic road block and strong Scandy high!! In FI but possible for sure. ?

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

Thats a fantastic nhp in fi on the 6z.epic moving  forward from there if it verified! !!Massive bank from me :rofl:

Edited by swfc
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL 

Scandy high on christmas day, and probably snow across much of the UK as the Atlantic moves in!!

(OK it wont last but..looks like staying cold with a continental drift)!!

No snow Christmas but definitely a right dumping coming in the week after if that 6z GFS did verify.

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted
22 minutes ago, offerman said:

That Azores high is the culprit. Need that to migrate westward or northward then the fun would begin. It just seems too stationary . I wonder why it barely seems to move run after run week after week month after month? 

It's a semi permanent thing, though in recent winters fully permanent thing...

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted

Definitely a Bank! run there in the run up to Christmas.

Cold crisp days, frosty nights andrews then prospect of snow before New Year.

Perfection.  Pass the mulled wine, i’m getting carried away...

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

If verified that Scandy high would be prolonged and very cold, let's hope some ENS support is on its way.

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NorthernRab Accomplished

NorthernRab

Posted
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Freezing fog, frost, snow, sunshine.
  • Location: Inbhir Nis / Inverness - 636 ft asl
Posted

If ever there was a case for not taking FI charts too seriously, this is it.

 

GFS 06hz

h500slp.png

GFS 00hz

h500slp.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Im still not having an' outlandish long mild spell!!

And neither are a fare bit of data!!!

Loads of trending back down towards later part next week...

gfs-1-360.png

gfs-0-372.png

MT8_London_ens.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Is this an early signal for amplification/blocking or is it just another chimera?:D

h850t850eu.png

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N/A Apprentice

N/A

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Draig Goch said:

Plenty of snow showing on GFS 18z from tomorrow evening right through Thursday although by then, they'll probably be in the form of showers, sometimes heavy with an added risk of hail & thunder especially near the coasts where it could be rain & sleet rather than snow. One to watch though, this cold snap is certainly not giving up yet! 

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GFS 6z continues this theme too, could be more snow over S & SW England as well as the far South of Wales than Sunday if this verifies. 

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)

More amplification on the 06z operational over eastern N America, which in turn amplifies the 500mb flow over the N Atlantic. This appears to be due to more of a +PNA ridge (over western N America) which allows the deep cold downstream to dig deeper over eastern NAM, as opposed to a -EPO ridge further west - which keeps the upper trough axis over N America aligned further west.

What we need to see is this amplification over the Atlantic but also at the same time upper cold pooling /low heights to drop SE and S across NE Europe to have any success at ridging NE and decently cold air to undercut from the E. Unfortunately only one operational run and the interest in Fi, but not without merit given the evolving poleward ridging upstream over NE Pacific / Wern N America.

Edited by Nick F
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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Just about to post the same.......

Not to mention a potentially very wintry new year Frosty - LOL

image.thumb.png.5a37f45aca32cd3e2a5d66ccb626f23a.png

image.thumb.png.8872b2d761493fc8c1d8634f1e023b0e.png

will be interesting to see how the ENS develop this theme.

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