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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

That has a classic La Nina look to the 500mb wave pattern, such a pattern change upstream over N America and N Pacific would not necessarily be good for the UK straight away, the day 12.5 (T300) EPS mean shows a strong zonal flow over the UK with low heights to the N and NW and ridging to the south.

However, the -EPO ridge anomaly will certainly help in the long term to warm the 500mb over the arctic with -AO signature.

Joe b argues that those troughs are too tilted and will be more north/south with less ridging in the east. He argues that the models don't deal well with Arctic outbreaks headed n/s into the east side of the rockies (which are nw/se ) as they lift the air and warm it too much. I assume that more troughing into se USA will help our chances of Atlantic re-amplification  

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Ignore, of the jet profile also 'overlooked!

As pv@trop/strat try align/re-acommplish..

The feed of vigor jet aiding the pacific ridge..and advect in momentum with 'polar vortex' trying to acomplish, home grounds.(canadian sector)..

Is by complete fluke via output a defining factor.

And a ridge maker at that!..

As are other factors in the mix.

With heights stable at the pole the outer momentum' is the driving force!...

And as operationals will try to decipher a-worthy characteristic' normality, its a revert to format...

And underplaying is disregard!..

Theres a money making machine in process..and it need not be ignored!!

If cold is your money....

We are not far off the jackpot!!!

But the balls are rolling!!!!

 

 

gfsnh-5-168.png

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20171212_222621.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Joe b argues that those troughs are too tilted and will be more north/south with less ridging in the east. He argues that the models don't deal well with Arctic outbreaks headed n/s into the east side of the rockies (which are nw/se ) as they lift the air and warm it too much. I assume that more troughing into se USA will help our chances of Atlantic re-amplification  

I believe the air is only lifted and warmed when coming from the SW (I live right by the rockies, they call them 'Chinooks') When arctic outbursts arrive from the north, the air is not really moderated until it reaches Wyoming/Colorado) 

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

18z amplifying even more.....changes are coming...or is this a blip

 

BFTP

Covered both possible aspects there Blast ? Well put 

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom

gfsnh-0-240.png?18

Seeing the transfer of vortex from Siberian side to Canadian side at 240H, Not really what we want to see but still very much in FI. Lots of great amplification in the short/medium range. 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Joe b argues that those troughs are too tilted and will be more north/south with less ridging in the east. He argues that the models don't deal well with Arctic outbreaks headed n/s into the east side of the rockies (which are nw/se ) as they lift the air and warm it too much. I assume that more troughing into se USA will help our chances of Atlantic re-amplification  

Yep, read his musings, he is and has always been a big cold ramper - so will always look for cold patterns in the east of the U.S., even if tentative. But he may have a valid point with regards to the orientation of the trough over N America - given strong -EPO signal. He also points out the increasing amplitude of the MJO in phase 7 and 8 on the EC and GFS RMM plots compared to yesterday ... showing the models are only starting to latch on to the true movement of the tropical wave and may start reflecting this in the medium to extended range with some more amplification as the MJO and -EPO combine.

Though no signs of anything positive from the above occurring from the 18z GFS operational though!

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts

Not the best medium range from the GFS. I think its safe to say the Scandi High ship has sailed. Looks like that Aleutian ridge is forcing the vortex over us over the next 2 weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yep, read his musings, he is and has always been a big cold ramper - so will always look for cold patterns in the east of the U.S., even if tentative. But he may have a valid point with regards to the orientation of the trough over N America. He also points out the increasing amplitude of the MJO in phase 7 and 8 on the EC and GFS RMM plots compared to yesterday ... showing the models are only starting to latch on to the true movement of the tropical wave and may start reflecting this in the medium to extended range with some more amplification as the MJO and -EPO combine.

Though no signs of anything positive from the above occurring from the 18z GFS operational though!

It's pretty horrid

gfsnh-0-372.png?18

Bulk of trop PV centred on Greenland- would be difficult to break out of that one.

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Posted
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Continental:Warm dry summers, cold snowy winters
  • Location: Calgary, Canada. Previously, Saffron Walden (Essex/Herts border), United Kingdom
1 minute ago, Snowy L said:

Not the best medium range from the GFS. I think its safe to say the Scandi High ship has sailed. Looks like that Aleutian ridge is forcing the vortex over us over the next 2 weeks.

Yeah doesn't look too optimistic. Best chance (going by this run's output) would be high over the UK and Atlantic going north and some amplification. Don't fancy having uncle Bartlett over for Christmas this year... 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

perhaps we need reminding that the low res gfs is, in effect, quite often a gefs  member plucked at random from the previous suite. Never to be taken too seriously, whether showing blocked or mobile, mild or cold. 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's pretty horrid

gfsnh-0-372.png?18

Bulk of trop PV centred on Greenland- would be difficult to break out of that one.

I think its very feasible, that forcing is being underplayed, atm..we have had a tri-waved vortex modeled a couple of weeks ago-that have simply diminished' while factor/waving/forcing remains.

My opinion-given-...

Although the canadian seg-vortex..

Being vastly overplayed atm..

And raw out/operationals, are the first to revert to format...

While all supporting means/controls other telecons..will try to find decipher...

And while that % divergance is there along with, all highlighted...

Its a very interesing complexity of synoptics.

And uk zonal/mobile-normality...

Are imo going into the inferm/and breif!.

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
20 minutes ago, CanadaAl said:

I believe the air is only lifted and warmed when coming from the SW (I live right by the rockies, they call them 'Chinooks') When arctic outbursts arrive from the north, the air is not really moderated until it reaches Wyoming/Colorado) 

Surely air is lifted and warmed whichever direction it comes from ? we are talking high up Al, not at the surface away from the mountains. 

anyway, whilst I agree that joe is a cold ramper, he has got th eastern USA troughs so far this winter spot on against model guidance at range because he argued that what the model was showing didn't make sense re upstream placement of trough and ridge. This looks like a small liar call although he is less bullish that some of the se USA ridge will remain in place.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

perhaps we need reminding that the low res gfs is, in effect, quite often a gefs  member plucked at random from the previous suite. Never to be taken too seriously, whether showing blocked or mobile, mild or cold. 

Agreed, but there has been decent consistency in terms of slapping a huge PV over Greenland over the last day or 2, in itself not worrying but the trend and the fact that a lot of GEFS members do back it up, are concerning, I hope I'm wrong but personally I'm not feeling an Easterly as much as I was.

EDIT : The one upside of GFS FI verifying is we wouldn't have to worry about uppers / marginality if soon after this we did suddenly get the bout of amplification required, I noticed even a very modest Westerly regime with little amplification delivered a country wide dumping soon after the PV formation over Greenland.

 

gfs-0-324_lgw8.png

gfs-2-324_pnk1.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

It's pretty horrid

gfsnh-0-372.png?18

Bulk of trop PV centred on Greenland- would be difficult to break out of that one.

2 weeks away...

must be spot on Aaron!? :shok: Phew...

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

GFS isn’t without interest this morning definitely an eagerness for +ve heights to push north in latitude would be very interesting if we managed a link up between the Siberian high & Scandi.

3F71D1D3-1E28-4FA8-9C77-12DEDF961AF2.thumb.png.276af32b652500c9cabffea6d255fe9d.pngB6F4348D-D371-4511-B387-B6690A01EDA1.thumb.png.473e663385e419081fbd6c47f0aa8694.png

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
8 hours ago, tight isobar said:

I think its very feasible, that forcing is being underplayed, atm..we have had a tri-waved vortex modeled a couple of weeks ago-that have simply diminished' while factor/waving/forcing remains.

My opinion-given-...

Although the canadian seg-vortex..

Being vastly overplayed atm..

And raw out/operationals, are the first to revert to format...

While all supporting means/controls other telecons..will try to find decipher...

And while that % divergance is there along with, all highlighted...

Its a very interesing complexity of synoptics.

And uk zonal/mobile-normality...

Are imo going into the inferm/and breif!.

Is this poetry?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Daffinately not a wintry run up to christmas on the Ecm 00z:D

240_mslp850.png

240_mslp850uk.png

240_thickuk.png

p1020680.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

After an exhausting few weeks, it's not surprising to see it quiet in here.  Not much to report from the overnights other than the longer term Pacific ridge remains firm and nw europe stays  more ridgy and less troughy with each run on a pos NAO background 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

After an exhausting few weeks, it's not surprising to see it quiet in here.  Not much to report from the overnights other than the longer term Pacific ridge remains firm and nw europe stays  more ridgy and less troughy with each run on a pos NAO background 

The Pacific ridge doesn't look as strong on the ecm op this morning. That's all I want to say about this run as I found it a little repugnant. 

Edited by blizzard81
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The Gfs 00z doesn't become as insanely mild as the Ecm this morning, it does become milder and more anticyclonic next week  but then we see more in the way of overnight frost followed by crisp bright days with surface cold...and then, between christmas and new year the northern arm of the jet really cranks up with explosive cyclogenesis and some potentially stormy weather..that's a long way off though..it looks increasingly benign next week, at least across the southern half of the uk as pressure rises strongly following a weak northerly later this week.:) 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

After an exhausting few weeks, it's not surprising to see it quiet in here.  Not much to report from the overnights other than the longer term Pacific ridge remains firm and nw europe stays  more ridgy and less troughy with each run on a pos NAO background 

Hope we dont get stuck in a +NAO pattern for weeks on end Blue...

About the only positive i can see this morning is GFS still going for a warming of the strat at 10Hpa 300hrs

gfsnh-10-300.png?0

gfsnh-10-384.png?0

I think we are going to need some kind of strat warming to break this upcoming pattern.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

‘Scrummaging’ through GEFS panel there are some interesting ones. A Xmas easterly is not dead in the water yet.

97DD5322-62D3-4FE5-AD6A-DE7F4DB553D5.thumb.png.012ab19f3f8fdfcbd7e9f493622df3de.png48266790-AA25-4A90-B01A-F8E1034B25AA.thumb.png.7ba824445db40d2f80e7e348d44c0925.pngC5D674DF-C02B-4B3A-A13E-52B89DA866AB.thumb.png.303fd8d5d519ce433b50a7845c5e4b3c.png

I’ve seen worse :whistling:

A less cold period is all but a dead cert it will probably feel rather mild from 21st things however go all haywire. The festive period could still go either way IMO. 

FF18A0E7-8313-4278-9F49-6121AC01C757.thumb.gif.c15869941170c1a9f39bc19678207c05.gif

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