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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

This Alaskan ridge is a banker going forward 

how it affects downstream is unknown 

we are now beginning to see more Atlantic amplification around day 10 (the 12z gem looks of interest) 

 

216_mslp500_arc.png?cb=458 240_mslp500_arc.png?cb=458

Indeed BA (I believe Netweather should include the GEM output to day 10 in their chart viewer, at least for entertainment value :laugh:).

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

For' once a deep limpit canadian/alaskan vortex 'may' be a ball player!??

Thats an' obvious ACE card player.

Trop/strat interfere'..

And key for vibrating the jet...

And bullying the Azores hp.

Loads on offer via n-hemispherical..

After the mild blip!!

@butterfly effect

gfsnh-0-384.png

Screenshot_2017-12-12-17-21-13.png

gfsnh-5-348.png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Some Crazy looking NH profiles looking at some FIs on the GEFS - still v interesting model watching. A few Scandy highs and split PVs among them.

some of the more interesting below 

IMG_5587.PNG

IMG_5588.PNG

IMG_5589.PNG

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
53 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

A quick look at the polar profile day 10 reveals that this run may not pass any vortex from Asia to Canada as the Pacific ridge is forced further into the pole m

be interesting to see what consequences this has later on 

EDIT: scrap that - it does pass a chunk soon after 

Hi BA - A Q as i'm trying to learn - Is that transfer the result of how the 12z handles the subsequent path of what, to my untrained eye, appears to be a Typhoon that forms around the day 8-10 mark?  Or am i asking a chicken and egg type Q?

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

No surprise re the re-emergence of the Alaskan ridge from around day 7 as it's been well modeled in the ens and op runs.The concern is without amplification on the Atlantic side we see the Canadian pv segment continuing to extend east towards Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
33 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

For' once a deep limpit canadian/alaskan vortex 'may' be a ball player!??

Thats an' obvious ACE card player.

Trop/strat interfere'..

And key for vibrating the jet...

And bullying the Azores hp.

Loads on offer via n-hemispherical..

After the mild blip!!

@butterfly effect

gfsnh-0-384.png

Screenshot_2017-12-12-17-21-13.png

gfsnh-5-348.png

All obviously 'refer'..

Western seaboard warmth/waa /ridging

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

HA HA HA - I think we can now draw a definitive conclusive line under the weather.us ECM snow charts, they have my area under 14.6 inches of snow by tomorrow night! - enough said - chocolate fireguard, I know they aren't ever going to be very accurate but they are just plain unrealistic.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

ECM amplifying more.  The changes may be afoot. Like I say let it develop as the week goes on and I suspect we will have a differing picture as we get to Friday.  Permanent frost n garden today and I’m in mild Redhill ?

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Right then. For all of us looking to see if the models are starting to pick-up on the long range teleconnections and what have you, the next few GFS outpourings ought to start showing 'signs', as the post-Christmas period creeps into view...?

PS: And, no, I don't mean -12C uppers over London before the New Year!:cold-emoji:

Pete!!?? What u mean you don’t mean -12c uppers.....you disappoint me :D

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

P 10 GEFS delivers a Christmas treat, after the milder spell next week it will be interesting to see where the models end up regarding xmas and beyond with the positive background signals. 

IMG_3005.thumb.PNG.6f383e250e054688bde3f8785b3a6160.PNG

Edited by chris55
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

High pressure looks a lot stronger next week compared to the Ecm 00z..benign pleasant surface conditions on the way if this is correct.

144_mslp500.png

168_mslp500.png

168_thickuk.png

168_thick.png

192_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

216_mslp500.png

216_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
28 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

HA HA HA - I think we can now draw a definitive conclusive line under the weather.us ECM snow charts, they have my area under 14.6 inches of snow by tomorrow night! - enough said - chocolate fireguard, I know they aren't ever going to be very accurate but they are just plain unrealistic.

I think the algorithm assumes all snow falling settles and accumulates 

some hefty showers due tomorrow afternoon and evening !!

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

No surprise to see the 12z gefs showing a better prospect for cold with stronger northern blocking are the ones showing greater warming in the strat. This I Imagine ties in with the strength of the MJO signal with one leading the other. Not sure which leads which though as we have seen strong MJO action before in past winters with only weak strat response. What ever now that the strat and trop are properly coupled it is important to get a strong strat response I think.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I think the algorithm assumes all snow falling settles and accumulates 

some hefty showers due tomorrow afternoon and evening !!

Its still overdone because its far from an all snow event and even then, the totals wouldn't be that high

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

Some Crazy looking NH profiles looking at some FIs on the GEFS - still v interesting model watching. A few Scandy highs and split PVs among them.

some of the more interesting below 

IMG_5587.PNG

IMG_5588.PNG

IMG_5589.PNG

should these charts come off it would become exceptionally cold here..could get close to -40c :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

should these charts come off it would become exceptionally cold here..could get close to -40c :cold:

Just out of interest and sorry if off topic but what are your current temperatures over there ?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Well..the Ecm 12z turns into a really pleasant anticyclonic run after this week and ends with high pressure still firmly in control.:)..I'm sure sidney would be happy if this verifies:santa-emoji:

240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
1 minute ago, shotski said:

Just out of interest and sorry if off topic but what are your current temperatures over there ?

+10c right now which is not far off +20c above normal

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well..the Ecm 12z turns into a really pleasant anticyclonic run after this week and ends with high pressure still firmly in control.:)

240_mslp500.png

i doubt it will be a sunny high with the wind direction the south coast may get lucky with a few sunny breaks either way it will feel spring like leading up to christmas with temps touching the teens in many places

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
9 minutes ago, igloo said:

i doubt it will be a sunny high with the wind direction the south coast may get lucky with a few sunny breaks either way it will feel spring like leading up to christmas with temps touching the teens in many places

Yep, great news for the December daffs..I don't recall the latest met office update indicating a settled very mild spell next week such as the Ecm 12z is showing tonight with tropical maritime air feeding in around the high!:D:whistling:

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire

A clear movement of high pressure northwards compared to yesterday's model runs. Too early to say 'trend' but if subsequent runs continues to nudge that high north (it was over France on yesterday's ECM for example), we could well see a cold, frosty, possibly foggy run up to Christmas via an inversion. Depends how much cloud gets caught up in it I s'pose.

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yep, great news for the December daffs..I don't recall the latest met office update indicating a settled very mild spell next week such as the Ecm 12z is showing tonight with tropical maritime air feeding in around the high!:D:whistling:

could be a 25c swing from this week to next week it was -12c here the other night next week it could be +14c could well be these seasonal models are right sadly

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yep, great news for the December daffs..I don't recall the latest met office update indicating a settled very mild spell next week such as the Ecm 12z is showing tonight with tropical maritime air feeding in around the high!:D:whistling:

Well the December daffs had better make the most of it Frosty it's only passing through on its ways to meet up with its Russian friend for a winter holiday in Scandinavia. :cold:

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