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Model output discussion - winter proper underway


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
19 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Looks like an incredibly high flood risk for the South East between Christmas and New Year going by the GFS.

Starts to deepen as it comes out of the Atlantic

Continues to deepen

And again - only this time it's intensifying even more, seems to be picking up quite a lot

However it could be possible for this to resolve to keeping that system bedded in over Scandinavia preventing the flood risk or perhaps - and this is really hopecasting, providing cold air for the low pressure that's currently flooding southern England (shown above) to give us one hell of a winter.

We could do with the rain really, GFS 00z does go very unsettled cold enough for snow in places. GFS has a tendency to overdeepen these systems, however I think at least one storm post Xmas and new year is very likely. The one you have picked up on, doesn’t look concerning a typical winter storm really, Iceland gets battered. 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Stronger WAA reaching g higher into the Arctic this run at 192, looks better to me but unsure if it will pan out like this on this run. Might help quieten that PV!!

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6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

We could do with the rain really, GFS 00z does go very unsettled cold enough for snow in places. GFS has a tendency to overdeepen these systems, however I think at least one storm post Xmas and new year is very likely. The one you have picked up on, doesn’t look concerning a typical winter storm really, Iceland gets battered. 

More concerning is the fact that 6 days of constant rain / drizzle is being forecast for here from Tuesday excluding today's full day of rain in South Wales despite having a strong area of high pressure over or near us throughout. It's something which I was really hoping wouldn't happen again as its occurred at least 4 times in the Autumn, now it seems we have to wait until lower pressure arrives next weekend before we get to see some drier weather and a return to sunny spells, it's going to be a long, long wait  :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Stronger WAA reaching g higher into the Arctic this run at 192, looks better to me but unsure if it will pan out like this on this run. Might help quieten that PV!!

It’s not as good with ridge not really going polewards. These sort of synoptics bury the Scottish mountains cold zonality however ski ‘resorts’ being operational may be a challenge. 

02B15008-0ADD-4C41-84D1-57FBEF3080F2.thumb.png.e44e9661eeb4474c3385a9e91e7584a7.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

Well only using the GFS snow charts, which are unreliable at the best of times. Nevertheless they show a white Christmas for most of England in the afternoon. After the outputs showing a couple of days ago for Xmas, it’s a big improvement. Although EC Ens always had colder runs showing. Still think output could get a little colder again for Xmas with a little more amplification than currently shown. 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Outrageous 850s going into the north Atlantic and esb skiing resorts in Scotland would be smiling 

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

We are all on this forum because we have a genuine interest in weather. A good many of us (like myself) obviously have a very keen interest in cold weather and snowfall.

It is always a frustrating situation to be in when  our most learned members have pointed out that the teleconnections hold the distinct possibility of hieght rises to our north and east and we are in a position of waiting for the various lag times to feed through into the operational nwp forecast runs.

In addition to this we have a fairly reliable singularity in the British climate that apart from extreme cold months like Dec 2010

the weather pattern often becomes highly mobile at some point in the two week period centred on Xmas day.

The watchword at the moment is patience after all the recent cold snowy (for some) spell popped up on the nwp operationals with relatively little warning. THe background signals are in our favour far more so than last year. it could well be that the model output give us a nice new year present just as we head towards Xmas. Keep the faith.

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11 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

More concerning is the fact that 6 days of constant rain / drizzle is being forecast for here from Tuesday excluding today's full day of rain in South Wales despite having a strong area of high pressure over or near us throughout. It's something which I was really hoping wouldn't happen again as its occurred at least 4 times in the Autumn, now it seems we have to wait until lower pressure arrives next weekend before we get to see some drier weather and a return to sunny spells, it's going to be a long, long wait  :wallbash:

Not much rain showing for South Wales on GFS 6z just a lot of cloud and mist but that won't help my SAD, the days are short enough now as it is let alone getting stuck with dark, depressing, dreary days too. Thursday evening a cold front pushes SE, the winds turn northerly behind leaving a much brighter Friday. By then, a strong high 1042mb will be over Ireland. So I'm hopeful it won't be too wet. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

A nascent pattern change just beginning to poke its nose into the far reaches of FI ?

image.thumb.png.097d2b04f9249d0bfab5b1a2891b5d9e.png

let's see how this develops - or not :)

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
10 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s not as good with ridge not really going polewards. These sort of synoptics bury the Scottish mountains cold zonality however ski ‘resorts’ being operational may be a challenge. 

02B15008-0ADD-4C41-84D1-57FBEF3080F2.thumb.png.e44e9661eeb4474c3385a9e91e7584a7.png

 

There was more at 192 than previous run and plenty in FI over by Alaska, still looks promising for Jan in my eyes

IMG_5616.PNG

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

This looks far more 'in line' with what the long-range signals/MetO further outlooks are suggesting...Hardly a 'done deal', though!:rofl::cold:

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
45 minutes ago, swfc said:

Alluding to teits comments they do make good points esp on regard to the east and scan

Imo the high pressure building to the east is in fact hindering the pv moving eastwards and slowing down the pacific heighths movement hopefully getting towards greenland.I think that would allow agreater chance of a better aligned jet as ba mentioned then a chance of cold shot.All in all tho id say anything past 7-10 days isnt worth a jott.Just to note that area of low pressure forming at150 hrs pf the esb on gfs is a real ball breaker!!!!!

Following on from earlier, the clusters late on reflect a growing height anomoly to our north later week 2 with the Alaskan ridge already in place and Russian beginning to edge north. we need the Russian ridge to hold firm against the Atlantic onslaught, to drive this ridge which will have strat implications re wave 2. 

also, note the general onset of draining of low heights at the end of the gfs op run. Nothing specific but a possible trend beginning ?

plenty to watch and possible surprises in the more mobile flow 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Following on from earlier, the clusters late on reflect a growing height anomoly to our north later week 2 with the Alaskan ridge already in place and Russian beginning to edge north. we need the Russian ridge to hold firm against the Atlantic onslaught, to drive this ridge which will have strat implications re wave 2. 

also, note the general onset of draining of low heights at the end of the gfs op run. Nothing specific but a possible trend beginning ?

plenty to watch and possible surprises in the more mobile flow 

:)

Like christmas day perhaps ...

gfs-1-204.png?6

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

:)

Like christmas day perhaps ...

gfs-1-204.png?6

If you like cold rain, yes a lovely chart.

I still see nothing to suggest anything significant for the majority of the U.K in the next 10 days or so, if only the PV would bugger off to the Siberian side for once. GFS ensembles still show pretty much zilch, I'd settle for a cold high right now, I despise zonal cold rain and wind.

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Posted
  • Location: NW London
  • Location: NW London
46 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s not as good with ridge not really going polewards. These sort of synoptics bury the Scottish mountains cold zonality however ski ‘resorts’ being operational may be a challenge. 

02B15008-0ADD-4C41-84D1-57FBEF3080F2.thumb.png.e44e9661eeb4474c3385a9e91e7584a7.png

 

Do they jusy bury the mountains or do the places like Aviemore get just rain 

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Following on from earlier, the clusters late on reflect a growing height anomoly to our north later week 2 with the Alaskan ridge already in place and Russian beginning to edge north. we need the Russian ridge to hold firm against the Atlantic onslaught, to drive this ridge which will have strat implications re wave 2. 

also, note the general onset of draining of low heights at the end of the gfs op run. Nothing specific but a possible trend beginning ?

plenty to watch and possible surprises in the more mobile flow 

Sorry I was thinking getting the pv across the east mighnt help

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

If you like cold rain, yes a lovely chart.

I still see nothing to suggest anything significant for the majority of the U.K in the next 10 days or so, if only the PV would bugger off to the Siberian side for once. GFS ensembles still show pretty much zilch, I'd settle for a cold high right now, I despise zonal cold rain and wind.

I suspect that initial comment depends on where one resides :)

Places with altitude in the north would see snowfall- 

EC Snow depth charts (yes i know they are experimental) show lying snow across much of NW Britain ..

sorry i am referring to christmas day :)

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Just now, Swave Snow said:

Do they jusy bury the mountains or do the places like Aviemore get just rain 

The'd probably get snow down to low levels in Aviemore, down here, it'd just be yucky cold rain, maybe sleet in heavier bursts.

But it's a good thing to be shown, and with a few tweaks you never know??

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 minute ago, Swave Snow said:

Do they jusy bury the mountains or do the places like Aviemore get just rain 

Well the snow would really pile over the mountains it can be quite snowy to quite low levels in the N/NW however it tends to not stick about as long did winter 2014/2015 bury the mountains?  

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Posted
  • Location: Bethnal Green
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold
  • Location: Bethnal Green
50 minutes ago, Swave Snow said:

Do they jusy bury the mountains or do the places like Aviemore get just rain 

Plenty of snow, but likely so windy that no one can go out or it's blown away before it can be skied.

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