Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[fromey]

3 minutes ago, Dennis said:

 

Are we going to get an explanation or are we just chucking charts up and guessing?..

fromey

ps not all of us on here are as knowledgeable as others

[Dennis]

Just now, fromey said:

Are we going to get an explanation or are we just chucking charts up and guessing?..

fromey

ps not all of us on here are as knowledgeable as others

an ridge (High pressure) is maybe setup near NE of the USA - that is usefull for cold air in NW Europe - we need to wait 

[swilliam]

3 minutes ago, Dennis said:

an ridge (High pressure) is maybe setup near NE of the USA - that is usefull for cold air in NW Europe - we need to wait 

If that model was to be believed we would all be having a white Christmas. Fortunately NASA has been shown to be not very good at predicting climate so weather should be the same.

[fromey]

5 minutes ago, Dennis said:

an ridge (High pressure) is maybe setup near NE of the USA - that is usefull for cold air in NW Europe - we need to wait 

Thank you, just Trying to learn 

[knocker]

H/t Eric Webb

The planetary wave juxtaposition after next week epitomizes the past several years in an era dominated by heightened low frequency Indian Ocean forcing & +PDO reinforcement by extensive Eurasian snow cover in the fall... Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

[snowray]

18z looking a lot better for a white Christmas.

[Dennis]

4 minutes ago, snowray said:

18z looking a lot better for a white Christmas.

Not that quick pls

[tight isobar]

Encouraging' developments via 18z..

The pacific monster ridge working favourably...

Canadian sector vortex diluting/and everything tranfering east.

Any height alignment behind this process would prove great for our part.

Synoptics to be eyeballing in the next 24hrs!!!

[snowray]

8 minutes ago, Dennis said:

Not that quick pls

At least we have a little more interest now for around Christmas day itself, just need a couple of erm you know whats, ah yes, upgrades.

Edited December 16, 2017 by snowray

[mulzy]

GFS loses the plot as it tries to blow up that low in the Atlantic at days 9-10.  This run is for the bin after mid range...

[Weathizard]

Flat as a pancake springs to mind.

Azores high finally takes a hike and we end up with this, pretty vile. Not that t300 is reliable but would be nice to see some encouragement.

Edited December 16, 2017 by Weathizard

[snowray]

JMA 12z has finished coming out, a very snowy Chrimbo could be on the cards IF this chart verified. Well at least we have something to play with now.

[JBMWeatherForever]

Yes its still not over for a cold Christmas yet !  Within the next few days we should know if it is a cool Christmas or perhaps something better ???   Time yet for upgrades to bring a Christmas present for coldies !  

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

GFS loses the plot as it tries to blow up that low in the Atlantic at days 9-10.  This run is for the bin after mid range...

Not so sure - looks feasible (unfortunately) - it exits off the Jetstream so would that not mean it could rapidly deepen?

[feb1991blizzard]

Anyway the upshot is its made a pigs dinner of any chance of a height rise to NE - over to ensembles to save the day.

[blizzard81]

It's quite telling the lack of commentary about the ecm ens. I must admit I am very disappointed with them tonight. I was expecting much better to be honest. 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It's quite telling the lack of commentary about the ecm ens. I must admit I am very disappointed with them tonight. I was expecting much better to be honest. 

Same theme as previous 

[snowray]

Would not be the 1st time that ECM has been wrong though, even with full ENS agreement.

[Tracy Flick]

I wouldn't want to be a farmer on the Somerset Levels if some of these GFS FIs come to fruition.  

Hopefully the drainage channels are in good nick(!)  Anyway, I'm sure Ian Ferguson would be expressing concern by now if the MetO were even slightly buying it.

[Man With Beard]

12 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

It's quite telling the lack of commentary about the ecm ens. I must admit I am very disappointed with them tonight. I was expecting much better to be honest. 

Haven't commented as no time till now. Actually I thought they have a glimmer on hope for a white Christmas in some parts - a few members with a more NWly flow and lower heights towards central Europe. Still a bit of a long shot but not dead in the water. Longer term, still shouting out "stormy" but possibly getting the colder side of the jet in the north.

[snowray]

Still a lot of colder members there for the all important Christmas period.

 

London & Manchester.

[Aliaalu]

Guys I read this everyday and still learning. Would appreciate if you'd expand on abbreviations please. Mods don't delete me just yet.... my late grandmother had a sister in Boston MA, we we always told we'd get her weather in Northern Ireland within a fortnight.  Right enough, in my childhood memory it seemed to be right.  Is there any truth in this? Do the models back this up in any way? Do the models giving cold in NE USA also affect us or is this this a childhood memory based on no fact?

thanks in advance!

Ali

[Daniel*]

53 minutes ago, snowray said:

Still a lot of colder members there for the all important Christmas period.

 

London & Manchester.

 

Quite interesting while not a majority quite a few go for an extended cold snap of sorts 4 days of cold between 22nd - 26th that would be nice, I find plausible nothing overly cold from N/NW but chance of a white Christmas in favoured places. Then fairly good agreement for a recovery, then possibly a new cold phase to start 2018 with the mean going below T850 0C.

[mountain shadow]

37 minutes ago, Aliaalu said:

Guys I read this everyday and still learning. Would appreciate if you'd expand on abbreviations please. Mods don't delete me just yet.... my late grandmother had a sister in Boston MA, we we always told we'd get her weather in Northern Ireland within a fortnight.  Right enough, in my childhood memory it seemed to be right.  Is there any truth in this? Do the models back this up in any way? Do the models giving cold in NE USA also affect us or is this this a childhood memory based on no fact?

thanks in advance!

Ali

Hi, there's no fact in this at all I'm afraid.

There is nigh on 3000 miles between NI and Boston and plenty scope for different weather patterns.

 

[Timmytour]

Don't worry about what the models ate showing.

It's the all important background signals that count.

Just like last year when it seemed the models were not showing much in the way of interesting cold and then suddenly, like a slug out of a snail, we got a couple of days frost!!