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Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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Pretty reasonable agreement between last nights NOAA and this mornings EPS and GEFS anomalies in the medium term. Some differences upstream vis the alignment of the ridge/trough axis which may have some impact downstream.

Keeping it brief we are looking at one vortex lobe Siberia with a trough into the Pacific, Alaskan ridge and the main vortex lobe northern Canada with associated trough orientated down North America and a conduit east to the Scandinavian trough thar runs down eastern Europe.

Thus we have a strong westerly upper flow leaving get the eastern seaboard but this gets modified in the eastern Atlantic by the Azones HP ridging in the vicinity of the UK. The precise orientation and intensity of this will obviously influence the UK weather during this period and will need to be sorted by the det runs but the percentage playe is for a quiet spell with Temps slightly above average tending to a N/S split with systems running around the high pressure. Sunshine may be at a premium under the high

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.thumb.png.b1eec5e2fb5c4f353eefa8bc2aed90a0.pngecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.87a8a564fe7dbdfcfe23091f3536e6e1.png610day_03.thumb.gif.17964eae57b03f6cd929dd5b20134237.gif

In the extended period it is not so much a pattern change but an adjustment of the existing pattern with the Canadian  vortex spreading it's wings south east into the Atlantic and suppressing the Azones ridging and thus backing the upper flow westerly. This would ported generally more unsettle weather with Temps around average. The EPS is the most progressive with the Atlantic trough.

 

gefs_z500a_5d_nh_61.thumb.png.4a51cb4262aea1933efed4df5ce227f9.png814day_03.thumb.gif.8c3cbced1dc4b132a5fe94f3e7b1807b.gif

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Just now, carinthian said:

I hope so Daniel long term. In the meanwhile a horrible run from 6h GFS. Much too mild over Europe with heights maintained. Hope this is a rogue run.

C

i wouldnt say it was that bad, its a step back in the right direction from yesterdays output. i doubt we'll see a sudden leap to cross model agreemrnt for cold. if the uncertainty is due to the models getting a handle on the MJO phases, then we will likely see gradual nudges towards the right solution.

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5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

I hope so Daniel long term. In the meanwhile a horrible run from 6h GFS. Much too mild over Europe with heights maintained. Hope this is a rogue run.

C

GFS 06z ramps up Euro high very unsightly 7-10 days at least of torment it looks. Xmas day itself is fairly seasonal on GFS 06z very stagnant under HP, probably a good frost for most Christmas morning. I think that’s as far as a white Christmas we’re going to get for many of us not sure why this time of year tends to be mild. 

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Disagree TEITS,

Disagree, any (meaningful) cold spell between xmas and new years is a bust, the only way any time afterwards will be via a scandi high.

So are you ruling out any cold air from the NW or N with that comment? What proof have you got that the only way will be via Scandinavia please?

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gfs 06z doesn't provide coldies with much cheer but at least it should be sunny and pleasant to get Christmas shopping done! What is promising (to my novice eye) is it really is a similar pattern  repeating itself....the only difference being is that the high is in the wrong place (or over the UK) !! As opposed to the west of the UK !!

Edited by snowfish1
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The outlook for week 2 still looks pretty mobile.The ECM model more bullish in pushing the jet further south in it's extended ens because of the greater effect of the Alaskan ridge heading deep into the pole and forcing the Canadian pv this way.

This could bring something of interest further on if we can develop better ridging from the Atlantic pattern but currently the best chance for anything is transient north westerlies which would favour places further north and over higher ground.The retreat west of the Azores high indicated later would help with the angle of the jet enabling it to head more se.

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06z has a 14c in the SW on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon

ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.ecae2834b66b837c29a1cabc714f27d2.pngukmaxtemp.png1.thumb.png.b94287161ffd65b2f5e9a49ab5809761.png

Thursday which is the shortest day of the year sees temps widely in double figures Midlands south with single figures in the north

3.thumb.png.c44c431ae51ba33a69236fd626fb0db3.png

Friday sees a colder blip before a return to milder temps on Saturday

ukmaxtemp.png4.thumb.png.6677a0231ff03937d86f7a48472e585d.pngukmaxtemp.png5.thumb.png.16f6bc4850f2208b4d167310a7b410c4.png

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15 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

So are you ruling out any cold air from the NW or N with that comment? What proof have you got that the only way will be via Scandinavia please?

He/she says 'meaningful' and 'spell'... his comment doesn't rule out colder snap... seems fine to me.

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23 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

So are you ruling out any cold air from the NW or N with that comment? What proof have you got that the only way will be via Scandinavia please?

In the short term after 1st Jan yes, depends what you call cold, a slushfest that we had Wednesday at 600ft in the pennines from a WNWerly does not constitute a cold spell in my eyes, I believe we should actually be routing for the GFS because any transient ridge will not be enough to stop upper strat zonal westerlies downwelling, the 2 wave (almost cross polar flow) showing on a lot of 0z (and some of 6z) GEFS, would even if they didn't achieve an Easterly straight away, would buy us more time.

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Don't know why my post was removed, I was only agreeing with Gavin about the largely mild / very mild outlook from the 00z / 6z output!!!:santa-emoji:enjoy it guys, I thought this was an all inclusive forum for mild and cold and not cold only hopecasting!:)

Edited by Frosty.
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34 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The outlook for week 2 still looks pretty mobile.The ECM model more bullish in pushing the jet further south in it's extended ens because of the greater effect of the Alaskan ridge heading deep into the pole and forcing the Canadian pv this way.

This could bring something of interest further on if we can develop better ridging from the Atlantic pattern but currently the best chance for anything is transient north westerlies which would favour places further north and over higher ground.The retreat west of the Azores high indicated later would help with the angle of the jet enabling it to head more se.

I hope your analysis comes to fruition, Phil. I suggested something similar having spent five days or so on the sidelines, watching things unfold and by not commenting on developments around the key period. 

 

"As at least getting about, rarely being soaked to the skin and a general dryness is a far more pleasant winter weather type than predominant southwesterly driven moisture-laden onslaught. I think this HP dominance will gradually push Northwards and perhaps, allow a return of the NW-SE diving shortwave scenarios in time for the Christmas break. A Boxing Day wintry breakdown from the NW possibly? Could well be the case, so watch this space! :friends:"

 

I'm quite chilled about things as they stand as I don't see a zonal onslaught anywhere, bar the extreme NW, yes some rain tomorrow but then a largely dry run-up to Christmas and then things could develop nicely, just don't go expecting a BIG FREEZE any day soon guys.

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Well after a few weeks of interesting weather it looks like in for a spell of boring nothing type of weather with mild temperatures and grey laden skies. Bonus if we get any sun next week. Deep lala land does show a bit more interesting weather. GFS with it's normal deep lows blowing the uk away while the ECM doesn't go quite so extreme as it doesn't so far out but at least we do have some transient cooler slots with may produce some wintry weather. Hopefully we will get more application and different types of weather everyone will find interesting. However the emphasis is on the mild side of things.

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13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Don't know why my post was removed, I was only agreeing with Gavin about the largely mild / very mild outlook from the 00z / 6z output!!!:santa-emoji:enjoy it guys, I thought this was an all inclusive forum for mild and cold and not cold only hopecasting!:)

Frosty has your account been hacked by Ian Brown? What am I missing here? 😂

Regards the models, looks like a spell of milder conditions, with brief cooler shots for the next 10 days or so. Small signs of something on the colder side appearing as we go into 2018. Good time for a model break I think to re-charge and go cold hunting over and beyond the festive period.

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3 minutes ago, Southender said:

Frosty has your account been hacked by Ian Brown? What am I missing here? 😂

 

Nope, I'm just accepting the situation and adding a bit of christmas humor, seems some are lacking a sense of humor though..shame:santa-emoji::)

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4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nope, I'm just accepting the situation and adding a bit of christmas humor, seems some are lacking a sense of humor though..shame:santa-emoji::)

I want the old Frosty back posting snow charts from the GFS in deep FI!!

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7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I want the old Frosty back posting snow charts from the GFS in deep FI!!

This is frosty 2.0..new, improved and realistic:santa-emoji:

The mods show a largely mild outlook, accept it, all the hopecasting in the world won't bring us another decent cold spell during the rest of 2017.

Edited by Frosty.
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21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

This is frosty 2.0..new, improved and realistic:santa-emoji:

The mods show a largely mild outlook, accept it, all the hopecasting in the world won't bring us another decent cold spell during the rest of 2017.

As long as it's dry Frosty, I don't mind, cannot moan at 13C and dry, biggest rain hater in the world here, dry charts rule Frosty! -2C or 13C don't care

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Just now, Frosty. said:

This is frosty 2.0..new, improved and realistic:santa-emoji:

The mods show a largely mild outlook, accept it, all the hopecasting in the world won't bring us another decent cold spell during the rest of 2017.

I think I prefered the old Frosty too. lol.

I'd be very wary of accepting any operational charts for the xmas into new year period at face value at the moment with the background signals that have yet to feed into the nwp. As we know the abilities of nwp beyond 7 days are really rather limited  

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5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I think I prefered the old Frosty too. lol.

 

In a nutshell, I prefer the new rebooted version of frosty but of course I'm biast:D..i think the next week or so will be largely mild or indeed very mild at times..don't think anyone is disputing that?..beyond the week ahead confidence drops significantly, as per normal.

Edited by Frosty.
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22 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Well after a few weeks of interesting weather it looks like in for a spell of boring nothing type of weather with mild temperatures and grey laden skies. Bonus if we get any sun next week. Deep lala land does show a bit more interesting weather. GFS with it's normal deep lows blowing the uk away while the ECM doesn't go quite so extreme as it doesn't so far out but at least we do have some transient cooler slots with may produce some wintry weather. Hopefully we will get more application and different types of weather everyone will find interesting. However the emphasis is on the mild side of things.

It has been a great start to the season with several weeks of very entertaining model output and just recently the coldest and wintriest spell of weather for many in the UK unfortunately the timing could not be worse heading towards Christmas to see a pattern change to much more mobile and milder conditions. Hopefully strat forcing will see a return to much more interesting weather and model watching post Christmas into the new year. A fair number of the 06z gefs show what could be around the corner so not all doom and gloom.

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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

In a nutshell, I prefer the new rebooted version of frosty but of course I'm biast:D..i think the next week or so will be largely mild or indeed very mild at times..don't think anyone is disputing that?..beyond the week ahead confidence drops significantly, as per normal.

cool, Frosty, 'ramp' dry weather, today here is absolute washout, worst since child of Nadine, Sept 2012, 'ramp' dry charts!

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ECMOPNH00_240_1.png

Healthy looking Alaska ridge heading to the pole. Whats the chances for that moving towards Greenland ? The vortex splits nicely on this image to say it could happen. 

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I never added the annotations but shows how the first half of Decembers has been characterised by cold northerly winds quite impressive really, unfortunately the second half isn’t looking as rosy. 

600C9DB9-A74A-4F22-A2E4-A50EBBBC1A2F.thumb.jpeg.2b2a721d6997b2b9073b1f19195350f6.jpeg

 

Edited by Daniel*
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