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Paul

Model output discussion - winter proper underway

Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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28 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended shows high-pressure building in

ukm2.2017121612_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.aef6ec72a7230e079f3a319baa1bdb17.png

Those Ukmet168 charts are shocking, about as useful as the CMA.

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Most striking point of note on the extended EPS is the re-emergence of the Euro -ve anomaly - expect a better London graph later.

Control goes off on one - big spread at end

ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.thumb.png.5c164be5984dbbde82d16c4424f99638.png

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4 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

Those Ukmet168 charts are shocking, about as useful as the CMA.

Disagree, the signal appears to be that the Azores / Atlantic ridge will build in during next weekend cutting off the Northerly airflow and pressure will then become higher generally across the southern half / third of the uk with night frosts and chilly bright mainly dry days although further n / nw may continue rather more changeable..that's how I see it.

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Disagree, the signal appears to be that the Azores / Atlantic ridge will build in during next weekend cutting off the Northerly airflow and pressure will then become higher generally across the southern half / third of the uk with night frosts and chilly bright mainly dry days although further n / nw may continue rather more changeable..that's how I see it.

Unfortunately your wrong, there's some verification on the the NOAA site for this, ukmet 168 is poor...ill check it out and post the link...l

 

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5 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

Unfortunately your wrong, there's some verification on the the NOAA site for this, ukmet 168 is poor...ill check it out and post the link...l

 

I may be wrong about the ukmo 168 verification but the general pattern evolution I mentioned above may be similar to what I described with high pressure building in at least further south.:)

Edited by Frosty.
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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I may be wrong about the verification but the general pattern I described may be similar to what I described.:)

Don't want to move the thread off track, but if the verification is wrong your general pattern will be skewed lol...anyway we will see moving forward.

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26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Most striking point of note on the extended EPS is the re-emergence of the Euro -ve anomaly - expect a better London graph later.

Indeed Feb - signs  of renewed mid Atlantic high anomoly and the euro low anomoly re established - the clusters will be worth looking at later 

we may not have seen the last of the slider this side of xmas 

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1 minute ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

Don't want to move the thread off track, but if the verification is wrong your general pattern will be skewed lol...anyway we will see moving forward.

Actually the GEFS 12z mean goes along with what I said about week 2.:)..i.e..settling down, at least further south for a while with night frosts and chilly bright days, more changeable towards the NW.

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Actually the GEFS 12z mean goes along with what I said about week 2.:)..i.e..settling down, at least further south for a while with night frosts and chilly bright days, more changeable towards the NW.

Lol we were discussing uk met168 verification, not sure what gefs has got to do with it. Enjoy the snow :-)

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45 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Really quite incredible looking through the 12Z ECM ensembles - at just 18 hours away, the central front of the "slider" is forecast to stall just about anywhere between Guildford and Cambridge. London is hit by snow in almost all the ensembles now, especially north of the Thames.

Rapidly becoming an "on" the M4 event, rather than north of it.

Longer term - more and more charts stalling the Atlantic between 17th and 19th, will cold remaining in place. And with just 6 days until Christmas...

What is the resolution of the ecm precipitation charts you can see?

As far as I can tell, the 12z Hi-Res suite pads out as follows:

Significant snowfall South of Oxford for at least a few frames:

- AROME

- ARPEGE

- HIRLAM

- ICON (15z although only included due to heavy snow from undercut/wrap around in pm following rain)

- NETWX-SR

Significant snowfall only North of Oxford:

- NMM

-EURO4

Edited by The Enforcer
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4 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

Lol we were discussing uk met168 verification, not sure what gefs has got to do with it. Enjoy the snow :-)

What snow?..it's mainly staying further south of where I am.

In answer to your other point about the ukmo 168, I was only agreeing with summer sun about the idea of high pressure building in from the end of next week onwards!:)

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1 hour ago, Joshua said:

Unfortunately, due to a data transmission issue we're currently not receiving the data for the Met-Office global model. We're hoping the data will be available again soon.

It seems they are currently offline. Never mind - they only show 72, 96 and 120 hours ahead as far as I can see.

UKMET-G charts for tomorrow:

P1_GZ_D5_PN_018_0000.thumb.gif.aa9d545c202cccae1b3019194f3b9296.gifP1_GZ_D5_PN_024_0000.thumb.gif.733dc93016cfa5097d9fa92953c1a5b1.gifP1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.thumb.gif.df232f4481e849eb49b0806550a94062.gif

ECMWF:

ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2017120912_018.thumb.jpg.7308c10ba5f1f0fad5a0ece481dd7ac2.jpgecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2017120912_024.thumb.jpg.25ff36c407dfb95856ea38024a6fbe74.jpgecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2017120912_030.thumb.jpg.29d2c275bfffd1eca134b374f21e61fb.jpg

 

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Just looking at the 3 hour frames on ec 12z op and seems that the ridge ahead of the sliding trough manages to keep contact  with the Icelandic ridge and prevent any phasing at all of the sliding trough with the scandi trough. That keeps the sliding system that bit lower latitude and the little low at the front extension is now in s Kent before the slight pivot ne. The whole system now so flat that there is less advection north of the higher dp's (see Steve's post earlier). Would also note that gem was further south with the snow line last few runs without any clear reason as it wasn't as flat with the trough 

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44 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofWine said:

Unfortunately your wrong, there's some verification on the the NOAA site for this, ukmet 168 is poor...ill check it out and post the link...l

 

I think the UKME proviodes the sensible option for the MJO progression and imprint. GF is fast with the tropics and ECM over amplifies the solution we see. JMA also is a decent steer when MJO has influence over mid range patterns. Different lenses - NWP or teleconnections...

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37 minutes ago, Nick F said:

UKMET-G charts for tomorrow:

P1_GZ_D5_PN_018_0000.thumb.gif.aa9d545c202cccae1b3019194f3b9296.gifP1_GZ_D5_PN_024_0000.thumb.gif.733dc93016cfa5097d9fa92953c1a5b1.gifP1_GZ_D5_PN_030_0000.thumb.gif.df232f4481e849eb49b0806550a94062.gif

ECMWF:

ecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2017120912_018.thumb.jpg.7308c10ba5f1f0fad5a0ece481dd7ac2.jpgecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2017120912_024.thumb.jpg.25ff36c407dfb95856ea38024a6fbe74.jpgecm0125_nat_msl_t850_6urk_2017120912_030.thumb.jpg.29d2c275bfffd1eca134b374f21e61fb.jpg

 

That still looks brillaint for the midlands as a whole!!much further north compared to the ecm!!

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24 minutes ago, Nick F said:

UKMET-G, their global model, is not run to such a high resolution as the ECM as far as I'm aware, so may not verify aswell as EC det. - but we'll find out tomorrow.

Do you know the resolution of the ECM?

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Dreaming of a white Christmas?

image.thumb.png.96cc589cfb7d38e00f6c322fbe91e91a.png

image.thumb.png.e0fded473eaa941806b4c8f7d7f71d2a.png

image.thumb.png.1ca80ec856051842b285910aba5b2ba3.png

Then

image.thumb.png.371d24fd74d4978d9ee921ef8e269611.png

Nice to see - far off but a good trend we hope...:)

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19 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Do you know the resolution of the ECM?

0.125 or around 9km grid spaces: https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support

Looks like UKMO global has now gone from 17km to 10km grid spacing, so should see improvements with this model: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/2017/increased-resolution-of-global-forecast-models

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12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Very quiet in here which often happens when some snow is imminent for certain areas .

This slider low must surely go down in NW history as one of the  most microscopically analysed , with every jog south or north by a few miles met with panic or joy !

Putting aside this current saga which is drawing to a close we have seen some interesting trends over the last day on both the ECM and GFS trying to develop a ridge near Scandi towards day ten.

Looking at the De Bilt ensembles we’re beginning to see a small cluster developing some very cold conditions.

There are hints upstream that we could see a bit more amplitude developing after a relaxation of the positive PNA.

This would help as it will begin to pull back the PV and send a bit more energy se which you need to develop lower heights over Southern Europe to support any high.

It might be that we might need more than one attempt to get that Scandi high but perhaps it might arrive a bit sooner if the models are still slow at picking up the correct MJO signal . Singularity a few pages back made  an excellent post regarding that  and it does seem that the models forecasts were wrong and weakening the signal.

So after an initial suggestion that things might turn milder it’s possible we could see the mainly cold weather extended .

 

I dont know Nick, (To be fair, you should know...? I recognise the name from a long ago.)

Years ago this place would of been unbearable (10 to 20 posts every few seconds ) , lucky now its all split out more than it used to be so I guess better in a way.

- More in topic..

What i find most impressive is how the last few days its gone from being a very much midland and north snow event to being a midland and south snow event.
Time is ticking by and soon we will know for sure!

In times like this I always take GFS and METO with a pinch of salt. They work well for westerlies but as soon as we get the 1/10 setup's they suck! 
They just dont have the data needed to make a good guess and I see this year after year after year... As soon as its east, north or south, They cant handle it.  Coming from the west? They will nail it.

Edited by Lynxus
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